Chapter 5
Climate Change Impact Modelling
Cascade – Benefits and Limitations
for Conservation Management
Katrin Vohland, Sven Rannow, and Judith Stagl
5.1 Introduction
Even if all political targets are met, climate change is expected to increase
temperatures within the next decades globally and to change climate regimes
locally, resulting in shifting water regimes and extreme weather events. In Central
Europe temperatures are expected to increase and the climatic water balance,
especially in summer, to decrease (see Sect. 3.3.1). Consequently, adaptation to
climate change will become a necessity. Thus, it is crucial to overcome the notion
that accepting the need for adaptation implies admitting the failure of climate
policy. In fact, there are some instruments which provide high synergies between
adaptation and mitigation, for example, in the area of forest conservation or
ecosystem based adaptation as defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD). In short, adaptation to climate change is becoming increasingly important
for nature conservation management. But adaptation to which specific climate
change impacts?
One answer is expected to come from the area of modelling. Modelling is
increasingly important for understanding and projecting climate change impacts.
Hence, model results can serve as a basis for adaptation. However, there is a gap
K. Vohland (*)
Museum fu ¨r Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Research on Evolution and Biodiversity,
Invalidenstraße 43, 10115 Berlin, Germany
e-mail: katrin.vohland@mfn-berlin.de
S. Rannow
Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development,
Weberplatz 1, 01217 Dresden, Germany
e-mail: sven.rannow@gmx.de
J. Stagl
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
e-mail: judith.stagl@pik-potsdam.de
S. Rannow and M. Neubert (eds.), Managing Protected Areas in Central
and Eastern Europe Under Climate Change, Advances in Global Change Research 58,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7960-0_5, © The Author(s) 2014
63
Climate Change Impact Modelling
Cascade – Benefits and Limitations
for Conservation Management
Katrin Vohland, Sven Rannow, and Judith Stagl
5.1 Introduction
Even if all political targets are met, climate change is expected to increase
temperatures within the next decades globally and to change climate regimes
locally, resulting in shifting water regimes and extreme weather events. In Central
Europe temperatures are expected to increase and the climatic water balance,
especially in summer, to decrease (see Sect. 3.3.1). Consequently, adaptation to
climate change will become a necessity. Thus, it is crucial to overcome the notion
that accepting the need for adaptation implies admitting the failure of climate
policy. In fact, there are some instruments which provide high synergies between
adaptation and mitigation, for example, in the area of forest conservation or
ecosystem based adaptation as defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD). In short, adaptation to climate change is becoming increasingly important
for nature conservation management. But adaptation to which specific climate
change impacts?
One answer is expected to come from the area of modelling. Modelling is
increasingly important for understanding and projecting climate change impacts.
Hence, model results can serve as a basis for adaptation. However, there is a gap
K. Vohland (*)
Museum fu ¨r Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Research on Evolution and Biodiversity,
Invalidenstraße 43, 10115 Berlin, Germany
e-mail: katrin.vohland@mfn-berlin.de
S. Rannow
Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development,
Weberplatz 1, 01217 Dresden, Germany
e-mail: sven.rannow@gmx.de
J. Stagl
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
e-mail: judith.stagl@pik-potsdam.de
S. Rannow and M. Neubert (eds.), Managing Protected Areas in Central
and Eastern Europe Under Climate Change, Advances in Global Change Research 58,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7960-0_5, © The Author(s) 2014
63