• including vulnerability to climate change effects as a factor in the development
of endangered species lists;
• considering potential effects of climate change in protected area management
plans (e.g. March et al. 2011);
• considering potential effects of climate change like shifting distributions within
species action plans (Singh and Milner-Gulland 2011);
• assessing the effect of climate-induced changes in carrying capacity in population viability analysis;
• considering potential effects of climate change on habitat restoration plans
(e.g. Battin et al. 2007);
• developing habitat restoration plans for habitats that are endangered by climate
change effects like sea level rise.
The following chapters exemplify the adaptation of concepts, methods and tools
for conservation management. This is illustrated for protected areas located in
Central and Eastern Europe.
This book focuses on protected areas because they are a prominent element of
conservation schemes worldwide. They safeguard the most treasured biodiversity
hotspots and focus conservation action at the local and regional level. Even though
climate change is considered a global problem and changes, e.g. in species distribution, become only apparent when analysed on the global or regional scale, it is
the individual sites that are the first to feel the effects on endangered species and
habitats. During the last years a growing number of parks and conservation sites
have made individual adaptation efforts (e.g. March et al. 2011; Littell et al. 2011).
These efforts are challenged by the fact that climate change rarely is the only
pressure to consider. This is especially true for large conservation sites, such as
biosphere reserves, which are characterised by cultural landscapes and influenced
by existing land use.
At most Central and Eastern European conservation sites climate change adds to
a myriad of existing problems and interacts, either directly or indirectly, with them.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, seasonality, or the frequency and severity of
extreme events, have direct effects on species and habitats. Indirect effects, however, need to be considered, too. For instance changes in abiotic conditions, like
changing river runoff and groundwater regimes or changing phenology, and biotic
interactions, have impacts on local biodiversity. In addition, autonomous adaptations of local stakeholders show potential for increasing existing or creating new
conflicts. Changing practices in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, or tourism have
ripple effects on protected sites and surrounding areas. Improvement of conservation management at site level is needed to handle these new problems.
Projections of future climatic trajectories are accompanied with notorious
uncertainties and ecosystem responses are complex due to their non-linear and
often unclear relationships between causes and effects of changes, like feedback
loops, substantial temporal and spatial lags, and frequent discontinuities (Prato
2008). Most local conservation experts are uncertain when to react and how to
1 Natural Heritage at Risk by Climate Change
5
of endangered species lists;
• considering potential effects of climate change in protected area management
plans (e.g. March et al. 2011);
• considering potential effects of climate change like shifting distributions within
species action plans (Singh and Milner-Gulland 2011);
• assessing the effect of climate-induced changes in carrying capacity in population viability analysis;
• considering potential effects of climate change on habitat restoration plans
(e.g. Battin et al. 2007);
• developing habitat restoration plans for habitats that are endangered by climate
change effects like sea level rise.
The following chapters exemplify the adaptation of concepts, methods and tools
for conservation management. This is illustrated for protected areas located in
Central and Eastern Europe.
This book focuses on protected areas because they are a prominent element of
conservation schemes worldwide. They safeguard the most treasured biodiversity
hotspots and focus conservation action at the local and regional level. Even though
climate change is considered a global problem and changes, e.g. in species distribution, become only apparent when analysed on the global or regional scale, it is
the individual sites that are the first to feel the effects on endangered species and
habitats. During the last years a growing number of parks and conservation sites
have made individual adaptation efforts (e.g. March et al. 2011; Littell et al. 2011).
These efforts are challenged by the fact that climate change rarely is the only
pressure to consider. This is especially true for large conservation sites, such as
biosphere reserves, which are characterised by cultural landscapes and influenced
by existing land use.
At most Central and Eastern European conservation sites climate change adds to
a myriad of existing problems and interacts, either directly or indirectly, with them.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, seasonality, or the frequency and severity of
extreme events, have direct effects on species and habitats. Indirect effects, however, need to be considered, too. For instance changes in abiotic conditions, like
changing river runoff and groundwater regimes or changing phenology, and biotic
interactions, have impacts on local biodiversity. In addition, autonomous adaptations of local stakeholders show potential for increasing existing or creating new
conflicts. Changing practices in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, or tourism have
ripple effects on protected sites and surrounding areas. Improvement of conservation management at site level is needed to handle these new problems.
Projections of future climatic trajectories are accompanied with notorious
uncertainties and ecosystem responses are complex due to their non-linear and
often unclear relationships between causes and effects of changes, like feedback
loops, substantial temporal and spatial lags, and frequent discontinuities (Prato
2008). Most local conservation experts are uncertain when to react and how to
1 Natural Heritage at Risk by Climate Change
5