Geodetic measurements were carried out by a professional geodesist, using a
high resolution GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) instrument with
geodetic of 1 cm. Afterwards we scanned the study area with LIDAR technology. The data were taken from 650 m height with a recording frequency of
142 kHh and a flight speed of 85 kts. Thus we obtained an average point density
of 4 points per square metre and a horizontal accuracy of 10 cm.
• Attribution of micro-elevation intervals to mapped habitat types
We used the ArcGIS Spatial analyst tool to combine the elevation data with the
habitat type map and thus define the micro-elevation intervals for each habitat
type aggregate. The modelled scenarios are therefore very dependent on the
morphology of the study area relief.
• Habitat transitions model (ArcGIS, Idrisi Selva software)
We built a GIS-based habitat transition model to predict the spatial distribution
of protected habitats according to the sea level trend and prior to defined
scenarios of sea level rise (5, 10, 15 and 20 cm).
15.5 Habitat Shifts and Habitat Loss According
to Different Scenarios of Sea Level Rise
We built a prediction model which demonstrated to which degree, how and where
coastal habitats will shift to each other and decrease their surfaces in total. In
Sec ˇovlje Salina the GNSS geodetic method was applied to obtain micro-elevations
in different habitat types. Only then the four scenarios of sea level rising have been
applied (Fig. 15.3).
In Tables 15.2 and 15.3 the percentage shares of the habitat type areas (based on
2010 mapping) and the modelled scenarios of sea level rise in Sec ˇovlje Salina and
S ˇ kocjan Inlet study areas are shown.
As outlined in the methods section, the results are dependent on the micro-relief
structure of the study area and therefore they differ from each other. In Sec ˇovlje
Salina Natural Park, the area of N2000 habitat type – “mudflats and sandflats not
covered by seawater at low tide (code 1140)” – is decreasing in all modelled
scenarios (L 0–L 20 cm). This habitat type will lose almost 54 % of the predicted
area. Compared to S ˇ kocjan Inlet Nature Reserve, the same habitat will gain a few
percentage points in area in the case of sea level rise of 5, 10 and 15 cm, and will
then decreases when the water rises by 20 cm, representing just 6 % of the total area.
In both areas the Mediterranean glasswort swards (N2000 code 1310) are
decreasing in land cover, except for the scenario involving a sea level rise of
10 cm in Sec ˇovlje Salina Nature Park, where the percentage area increases to
almost 21 %. The habitat type where we detected the largest difference in predicted
spatial distribution is the Mediterranean saltmarsh scrubs (N2000 code 1420). In
S ˇ kocjan Inlet Nature Reserve, this habitat covers 7 % of the total area. If the sea level
rises by 5 cm, the habitat type will represent almost 25 % of the reserve area. The
predicted area then decreases at the next stage of sea level rise, but it still represents
a greater percentage of the area than at present time. In Sec ˇovlje Salina Nature Park
238
M. Kaligaric ˇ and D. Ivajns ˇic ˇ
high resolution GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) instrument with
geodetic of 1 cm. Afterwards we scanned the study area with LIDAR technology. The data were taken from 650 m height with a recording frequency of
142 kHh and a flight speed of 85 kts. Thus we obtained an average point density
of 4 points per square metre and a horizontal accuracy of 10 cm.
• Attribution of micro-elevation intervals to mapped habitat types
We used the ArcGIS Spatial analyst tool to combine the elevation data with the
habitat type map and thus define the micro-elevation intervals for each habitat
type aggregate. The modelled scenarios are therefore very dependent on the
morphology of the study area relief.
• Habitat transitions model (ArcGIS, Idrisi Selva software)
We built a GIS-based habitat transition model to predict the spatial distribution
of protected habitats according to the sea level trend and prior to defined
scenarios of sea level rise (5, 10, 15 and 20 cm).
15.5 Habitat Shifts and Habitat Loss According
to Different Scenarios of Sea Level Rise
We built a prediction model which demonstrated to which degree, how and where
coastal habitats will shift to each other and decrease their surfaces in total. In
Sec ˇovlje Salina the GNSS geodetic method was applied to obtain micro-elevations
in different habitat types. Only then the four scenarios of sea level rising have been
applied (Fig. 15.3).
In Tables 15.2 and 15.3 the percentage shares of the habitat type areas (based on
2010 mapping) and the modelled scenarios of sea level rise in Sec ˇovlje Salina and
S ˇ kocjan Inlet study areas are shown.
As outlined in the methods section, the results are dependent on the micro-relief
structure of the study area and therefore they differ from each other. In Sec ˇovlje
Salina Natural Park, the area of N2000 habitat type – “mudflats and sandflats not
covered by seawater at low tide (code 1140)” – is decreasing in all modelled
scenarios (L 0–L 20 cm). This habitat type will lose almost 54 % of the predicted
area. Compared to S ˇ kocjan Inlet Nature Reserve, the same habitat will gain a few
percentage points in area in the case of sea level rise of 5, 10 and 15 cm, and will
then decreases when the water rises by 20 cm, representing just 6 % of the total area.
In both areas the Mediterranean glasswort swards (N2000 code 1310) are
decreasing in land cover, except for the scenario involving a sea level rise of
10 cm in Sec ˇovlje Salina Nature Park, where the percentage area increases to
almost 21 %. The habitat type where we detected the largest difference in predicted
spatial distribution is the Mediterranean saltmarsh scrubs (N2000 code 1420). In
S ˇ kocjan Inlet Nature Reserve, this habitat covers 7 % of the total area. If the sea level
rises by 5 cm, the habitat type will represent almost 25 % of the reserve area. The
predicted area then decreases at the next stage of sea level rise, but it still represents
a greater percentage of the area than at present time. In Sec ˇovlje Salina Nature Park
238
M. Kaligaric ˇ and D. Ivajns ˇic ˇ