stakeholders like water-boards, agriculture or forestry. When using climate models
it should also be taken into account that for example, projections about future
temperature changes are more certain than projections about precipitation changes
or extreme events. For more intensive discussion of climate projections and an
overview on the currently available climate data for Central Europe see Chap. 2.
To identify impacts of climate change on a protected area and its natural assets a
sensitivity analysis and an impact assessment need to accompany the modelling.
Many different models are available and to date no standardised method for
modelling of ecological or even social responses to climate change can be
recommended without reservation. In most cases, selection of models used for
sensitivity and impact analysis is strongly guided by the know-how of available
scientific institutions and data. Hence, there needs to be a wholehearted discussion
regarding whether or not proposed modelling results specifically address the management decisions at hand (see also Chap. 5). A special challenge is the definition of
elements of the ecological or socio-ecological system that may be affected by
climate change and therefore should be analysed. In some cases protected area
management might be able to limit modelling of sensitivity and impact analysis to a
few habitats or species because the results can easily be transferred to other parts of
the area. In other cases, however, more complex and integrated modelling of all
relevant features is needed (e.g. due to heterogeneous spatial conditions in the
protected area).
10.6.5 Working Step: Stakeholder Involvement,
Communication and Participation
Many conflicts in protected areas are caused by land-users and other stakeholders
not accepting the objectives and measures of nature conservation because they
stand contrary to their interests. It is essential to include and integrate those
stakeholders and land users in the process of adaptation. This is vital for the
increase of acceptance and to find win-win-solutions that help all parties involved
to adapt to climate change. To foster stakeholder involvement existing conflicts and
problems with land-users and stakeholders have to be analysed and documented,
and suitable strategies for participation and communication must be identified.
Furthermore, land-users and other stakeholders will also have to adapt to climate
change (for example, artificial irrigation to avoid drought, or snow cannons to
extend tourist seasons). Such autonomous adaptation activities might not even be
directly attributed to climate change. However, they can be in conflict with protection efforts, increase existing problems or even create new threats to conservation
goals. Hence, the autonomous adaptation of stakeholders should be monitored and
guided by conservation management.
Successful adaptation to climate change requires the close cooperation of
diverse stakeholders, land-users, administrators, and scientists. Each of the
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C. Wilke and S. Rannow
it should also be taken into account that for example, projections about future
temperature changes are more certain than projections about precipitation changes
or extreme events. For more intensive discussion of climate projections and an
overview on the currently available climate data for Central Europe see Chap. 2.
To identify impacts of climate change on a protected area and its natural assets a
sensitivity analysis and an impact assessment need to accompany the modelling.
Many different models are available and to date no standardised method for
modelling of ecological or even social responses to climate change can be
recommended without reservation. In most cases, selection of models used for
sensitivity and impact analysis is strongly guided by the know-how of available
scientific institutions and data. Hence, there needs to be a wholehearted discussion
regarding whether or not proposed modelling results specifically address the management decisions at hand (see also Chap. 5). A special challenge is the definition of
elements of the ecological or socio-ecological system that may be affected by
climate change and therefore should be analysed. In some cases protected area
management might be able to limit modelling of sensitivity and impact analysis to a
few habitats or species because the results can easily be transferred to other parts of
the area. In other cases, however, more complex and integrated modelling of all
relevant features is needed (e.g. due to heterogeneous spatial conditions in the
protected area).
10.6.5 Working Step: Stakeholder Involvement,
Communication and Participation
Many conflicts in protected areas are caused by land-users and other stakeholders
not accepting the objectives and measures of nature conservation because they
stand contrary to their interests. It is essential to include and integrate those
stakeholders and land users in the process of adaptation. This is vital for the
increase of acceptance and to find win-win-solutions that help all parties involved
to adapt to climate change. To foster stakeholder involvement existing conflicts and
problems with land-users and stakeholders have to be analysed and documented,
and suitable strategies for participation and communication must be identified.
Furthermore, land-users and other stakeholders will also have to adapt to climate
change (for example, artificial irrigation to avoid drought, or snow cannons to
extend tourist seasons). Such autonomous adaptation activities might not even be
directly attributed to climate change. However, they can be in conflict with protection efforts, increase existing problems or even create new threats to conservation
goals. Hence, the autonomous adaptation of stakeholders should be monitored and
guided by conservation management.
Successful adaptation to climate change requires the close cooperation of
diverse stakeholders, land-users, administrators, and scientists. Each of the
168
C. Wilke and S. Rannow