7.4 Modeling the Impact of Initial Conditions, and the
Long-Term Development of Soil Conservation Technologies
Land use models have become important tools in analyzing the impact of agricultural
systems on ecosystem services such as the renewal and maintenance of soil fertility
(DeFries et al. 2004).
3 In the context of this section, two major types of dynamic land
use modeling approaches can be distinguished: plot-based approaches with an oftendetailed representation of biophysical and geo-chemical processes such as the Water,
Nutrient and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems Model (WaNuLCAS)
(van Noordwijk and Lusiana 1999), and landscape approaches such as the Forest,
Agroforest, Low-value Landscape Or Wasteland? model (FALLOW) (van
Noordwijk et al. 2008), or the recently developed Land Use Change Impact Assessment model (LUCIA) model (Marohn and Cadisch 2011), which focuses on the
integration of biophysical processes and landscape fluxes such as overland flows and
soil erosion in a comprehensive framework. These modeling approaches can be used
to assess the causes and consequences of land use dynamics using a systemic and
process-based approach. Hence, such tools can be used to test the impact of soil
conservation strategies through the use of simulation scenarios, helping to develop
options for the implementation of environmental management activities in tropical
upland watersheds.
7.4.1 Stakeholder Based FALLOW Model Scenarios
In the following section, the outcomes of a scenario analysis using the FALLOW
model will be presented for the case study area in Chieng Khoi Commune in northwest Vietnam. The analysis was conducted to assess local stakeholder-based
recommendations, which were: (1) a simple increase in fertilizer application
rates, (2) the earlier start of fertilizer use, or (3) the reintroduction of an improved
swiddening system to reverse the ongoing decline in upland soil fertility in a
sustainable manner. The following section focuses primarily on the findings of
these simulation scenarios, whereas further descriptions of the general study framework can be found in Chap. 10 of this book, and in greater detail in Lippe et al.
(2011). The study was conducted in Ban Put, one of six villages in Chieng Khoi –
sharing similar environmental features, as presented in Table 7.2.
FALLOW is a spatially explicit land use and land cover change model with a
yearly time step (van Noordwijk et al. 2008). The model assumes farmers to be the
main agents of land cover and land use change, based on a multi-criteria analysis of
(1) plot attractiveness – to expand a land use type as a function of soil fertility,
accessibility, attainable yield and potential costs arising from transportation and
3 This section was written by Melvin Lippe, Thomas Hilger, Georg Cadisch.
248
T. Hilger et al.
Long-Term Development of Soil Conservation Technologies
Land use models have become important tools in analyzing the impact of agricultural
systems on ecosystem services such as the renewal and maintenance of soil fertility
(DeFries et al. 2004).
3 In the context of this section, two major types of dynamic land
use modeling approaches can be distinguished: plot-based approaches with an oftendetailed representation of biophysical and geo-chemical processes such as the Water,
Nutrient and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems Model (WaNuLCAS)
(van Noordwijk and Lusiana 1999), and landscape approaches such as the Forest,
Agroforest, Low-value Landscape Or Wasteland? model (FALLOW) (van
Noordwijk et al. 2008), or the recently developed Land Use Change Impact Assessment model (LUCIA) model (Marohn and Cadisch 2011), which focuses on the
integration of biophysical processes and landscape fluxes such as overland flows and
soil erosion in a comprehensive framework. These modeling approaches can be used
to assess the causes and consequences of land use dynamics using a systemic and
process-based approach. Hence, such tools can be used to test the impact of soil
conservation strategies through the use of simulation scenarios, helping to develop
options for the implementation of environmental management activities in tropical
upland watersheds.
7.4.1 Stakeholder Based FALLOW Model Scenarios
In the following section, the outcomes of a scenario analysis using the FALLOW
model will be presented for the case study area in Chieng Khoi Commune in northwest Vietnam. The analysis was conducted to assess local stakeholder-based
recommendations, which were: (1) a simple increase in fertilizer application
rates, (2) the earlier start of fertilizer use, or (3) the reintroduction of an improved
swiddening system to reverse the ongoing decline in upland soil fertility in a
sustainable manner. The following section focuses primarily on the findings of
these simulation scenarios, whereas further descriptions of the general study framework can be found in Chap. 10 of this book, and in greater detail in Lippe et al.
(2011). The study was conducted in Ban Put, one of six villages in Chieng Khoi –
sharing similar environmental features, as presented in Table 7.2.
FALLOW is a spatially explicit land use and land cover change model with a
yearly time step (van Noordwijk et al. 2008). The model assumes farmers to be the
main agents of land cover and land use change, based on a multi-criteria analysis of
(1) plot attractiveness – to expand a land use type as a function of soil fertility,
accessibility, attainable yield and potential costs arising from transportation and
3 This section was written by Melvin Lippe, Thomas Hilger, Georg Cadisch.
248
T. Hilger et al.