The Paris Agreement 2015, framed during the twenty-first
Conference of Parties (COP21), called on all nations to
collectively limit global warming to 2°C below preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase
to 1.5°C. In this context, the IPCC published a Special
Report in October 2018 on the relative impacts of global
warming levels of 1.5 and 2°C. According to the report, the
impacts of a 2°C rise are not only severe but also considerably larger than for 1.5°C on a global scale.
Despite the dire projections from the IPCC Special Report,
whether the 1.5°C target is practically achievable is contested.
The pace at which human activities have already changed the
climate since the pre-industrial era is unprecedented in the
history of modern civilization, and the world is presently on
course to far exceed the Paris targets. At current greenhouse
gas emissions trajectories, global average temperature may
rise 3–5°C, perhaps higher if tipping points
1 are triggered,
above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the
twenty-first century. However, the extent and rate of climate
change as well as its impacts will vary across the planet.
Chapters 1–11 have assessed the observed and future
changes in climate over the Indian region. However, the
impacts of these changes were not discussed since they lie
outside the scope of this report.
This concluding chapter is an essay briefly discussing the
possible impacts of climate change on India and the policy
relevance of this report. Focused impact assessment studies
based on the findings in the previous chapters can be the
foundation for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
12.1 Potential Impacts Over India
The rapid changes in India’s climate projected by climate
models will place increasing stress on the country’s natural
ecosystems, agricultural output, and fresh water resources,
while also causing escalating damage to infrastructure. These
portend serious consequences for the country’s biodiversity,
food, water and energy security, and public health. In the
absence of rapid, informed and far-reaching mitigation and
adaptation measures, the impacts of climate change are likely
to pose profound challenges to sustaining the country’s rapid
economic growth, and achieving the sustainable development
goals (SDGs) adopted by UN Member States in 2015.
The impact of climate change on the availability of fresh
water is a critical area of concern for India. Continued global
warming through the twenty-first century, together with the
high probability of future reductions in anthropogenic
aerosol emissions from North America, Europe, and Asia,
will likely intensify summer monsoon precipitation and its
variability over India. The growing propensity for droughts
and floods because of changing rainfall patterns caused by
climate change would be detrimental to surface and
groundwater recharge, posing threats to the country’s water
security.
Likewise, the country’s food security may be placed
under progressively greater pressure due to rising temperatures, heat extremes, floods, droughts and increasing
year-to-year rainfall variability that can disrupt rain-fed
agricultural food production and adversely impact crop
yield.
Studies indicate that climate change may seriously compromise human health in the absence of risk mitigation,
adaptation, or acclimatization, particularly among children
and the elderly. Higher temperatures, extreme weather
events, and higher climate variability have been associated
with an elevated risk of heat strokes, cardiovascular and
neurological diseases, and stress-related disorders. Heat
stress in urban areas is often compounded by the heat island
effect. Warmer, higher moisture conditions, on average, are
also more favourable for the spread of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever. In addition, a decrease in
the availability or affordability of food and potable water
caused by climate change may lead to reduced nutritional
intake, particularly among economically weaker sections.
Rising temperatures are also likely to increase energy
demand for space cooling, which if met by thermal power
would constitute a positive feedback to global warming by
increasing GHG emissions. In addition, thermal power
plants require substantial amounts of water for cooling to
generate electricity. Power plants sited inland draw freshwater largely from dam reservoirs, rivers and canals. A rise
in water withdrawal by power plants would directly compete
with water withdrawal for agriculture and domestic consumption, particularly in water stressed areas. On the other
hand, power plants sited around the coast that use sea water
for cooling are vulnerable to damage from sea-level rise,
cyclones, and storm surge. In short, climate change could
impact the reliability of the country’s energy infrastructure
and supply.
India’s long coastline, where some of its largest cities are
located, is among the most densely populated regions of the
planet, making it exceedingly vulnerable to the impacts of
sea-level rise. Potential coastal risks include loss of land due
to increased erosion, damage to coastal projects and infrastructure such as buildings, roads, monuments, and power
plants, salinization of freshwater supplies and a heightened
vulnerability to flooding. Higher sea levels and receding
coastlines escalate the destructive potential of storm surge
associated with cyclonic storms. These impacts of sea-level
rise may be additionally compounded by land subsidence
1
Tipping points refer to critical thresholds in a system that, when
exceeded, can lead to an abrupt change in the state of the system, often
with an understanding that the change is irreversible.
224
C. Dhara et al.
Conference of Parties (COP21), called on all nations to
collectively limit global warming to 2°C below preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase
to 1.5°C. In this context, the IPCC published a Special
Report in October 2018 on the relative impacts of global
warming levels of 1.5 and 2°C. According to the report, the
impacts of a 2°C rise are not only severe but also considerably larger than for 1.5°C on a global scale.
Despite the dire projections from the IPCC Special Report,
whether the 1.5°C target is practically achievable is contested.
The pace at which human activities have already changed the
climate since the pre-industrial era is unprecedented in the
history of modern civilization, and the world is presently on
course to far exceed the Paris targets. At current greenhouse
gas emissions trajectories, global average temperature may
rise 3–5°C, perhaps higher if tipping points
1 are triggered,
above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the
twenty-first century. However, the extent and rate of climate
change as well as its impacts will vary across the planet.
Chapters 1–11 have assessed the observed and future
changes in climate over the Indian region. However, the
impacts of these changes were not discussed since they lie
outside the scope of this report.
This concluding chapter is an essay briefly discussing the
possible impacts of climate change on India and the policy
relevance of this report. Focused impact assessment studies
based on the findings in the previous chapters can be the
foundation for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
12.1 Potential Impacts Over India
The rapid changes in India’s climate projected by climate
models will place increasing stress on the country’s natural
ecosystems, agricultural output, and fresh water resources,
while also causing escalating damage to infrastructure. These
portend serious consequences for the country’s biodiversity,
food, water and energy security, and public health. In the
absence of rapid, informed and far-reaching mitigation and
adaptation measures, the impacts of climate change are likely
to pose profound challenges to sustaining the country’s rapid
economic growth, and achieving the sustainable development
goals (SDGs) adopted by UN Member States in 2015.
The impact of climate change on the availability of fresh
water is a critical area of concern for India. Continued global
warming through the twenty-first century, together with the
high probability of future reductions in anthropogenic
aerosol emissions from North America, Europe, and Asia,
will likely intensify summer monsoon precipitation and its
variability over India. The growing propensity for droughts
and floods because of changing rainfall patterns caused by
climate change would be detrimental to surface and
groundwater recharge, posing threats to the country’s water
security.
Likewise, the country’s food security may be placed
under progressively greater pressure due to rising temperatures, heat extremes, floods, droughts and increasing
year-to-year rainfall variability that can disrupt rain-fed
agricultural food production and adversely impact crop
yield.
Studies indicate that climate change may seriously compromise human health in the absence of risk mitigation,
adaptation, or acclimatization, particularly among children
and the elderly. Higher temperatures, extreme weather
events, and higher climate variability have been associated
with an elevated risk of heat strokes, cardiovascular and
neurological diseases, and stress-related disorders. Heat
stress in urban areas is often compounded by the heat island
effect. Warmer, higher moisture conditions, on average, are
also more favourable for the spread of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever. In addition, a decrease in
the availability or affordability of food and potable water
caused by climate change may lead to reduced nutritional
intake, particularly among economically weaker sections.
Rising temperatures are also likely to increase energy
demand for space cooling, which if met by thermal power
would constitute a positive feedback to global warming by
increasing GHG emissions. In addition, thermal power
plants require substantial amounts of water for cooling to
generate electricity. Power plants sited inland draw freshwater largely from dam reservoirs, rivers and canals. A rise
in water withdrawal by power plants would directly compete
with water withdrawal for agriculture and domestic consumption, particularly in water stressed areas. On the other
hand, power plants sited around the coast that use sea water
for cooling are vulnerable to damage from sea-level rise,
cyclones, and storm surge. In short, climate change could
impact the reliability of the country’s energy infrastructure
and supply.
India’s long coastline, where some of its largest cities are
located, is among the most densely populated regions of the
planet, making it exceedingly vulnerable to the impacts of
sea-level rise. Potential coastal risks include loss of land due
to increased erosion, damage to coastal projects and infrastructure such as buildings, roads, monuments, and power
plants, salinization of freshwater supplies and a heightened
vulnerability to flooding. Higher sea levels and receding
coastlines escalate the destructive potential of storm surge
associated with cyclonic storms. These impacts of sea-level
rise may be additionally compounded by land subsidence
1
Tipping points refer to critical thresholds in a system that, when
exceeded, can lead to an abrupt change in the state of the system, often
with an understanding that the change is irreversible.
224
C. Dhara et al.