98
Keywords Rural sustainability · Placemaking · Aging and shrinking society ·
Intergenerational ties · Gojome town
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Population Aging in Japan and the Challenges in Rural
Regions
Japan has been experiencing a shift from a young population to an aged population.
This shift is caused by two major demographic changes, namely aging and shrinking population. In 2016, the proportion of people age 65 and older represents 26.7%
of the population, the highest figure in the world. The proportion of age 65 and older
population is predicted to grow to 39.9% by 2060 (Cabinet Office of Japan 2016).
Other evidence of population aging is found in the increase in Japan’s median age:
22.2 years in 1950 (Statistics Bureau 2017), and 46.7 years as of 2015. The acceleration of Japan’s population aging makes the country’s population decline much
more prominent. In 2008, the total population of Japan topped at 127.8 million
people, the time when Japanese society entered its shrinking phase (Senno 2013).
Recent predictions suggest that the population of Japan will likely decline to
88.1 million people by 2065, a 31.1% decline from the peak population in 2008
(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2017). Because
increases in life expectancy and decreases in fertility rates are becoming common
demographic transitions in not only developed countries but also in developing
countries (Harper 2014), many countries are looking at how Japanese society
responds to the emerging challenges of an aging and shrinking society.
Along with the aging trend in many countries, considerable differences are found
between urban and rural areas. Among developed countries, population aging is
more evident in rural areas than urban areas. Only three OECD countries have a
higher elderly dependency ratio
1
in urban areas than rural areas: Hungary 28.5%,
Poland 23.0%, and Slovakia 20.0% (OECD 2016). In Japan, the core Tokyo metropolitan area has a 4.6% lower proportion of age 65 and older population than the
average of other prefectures.
2
This is not caused by a higher fertility rate in Tokyo;
in fact, the fertility rate is the lowest in Tokyo, at 1.15 births per woman in 2014
1 Elderly dependency ratio is defined as the proportion of the population aged over 65 to the working-population (commonly defined as the population aged 15–64 in developed countries). Source:
OECD 2016.
2 The core part of the Tokyo metropolitan area consists of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba
prefectures. A larger grouping of the Tokyo metropolitan area includes Ibaraki, Gunma, and
Yamanashi prefectures (Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government: http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/
ENGLISH/ABOUT/HISTORY/history02.htm). The average proportion of age 65-plus population
of the core Tokyo metropolitan area is 24.3%; the average proportion of other prefectures excluding Tokyo metropolitan area and Okinawa is 28.9%. (Source: percentages calculated from
Population Census of Japan 2015)
S. Kudo
Keywords Rural sustainability · Placemaking · Aging and shrinking society ·
Intergenerational ties · Gojome town
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Population Aging in Japan and the Challenges in Rural
Regions
Japan has been experiencing a shift from a young population to an aged population.
This shift is caused by two major demographic changes, namely aging and shrinking population. In 2016, the proportion of people age 65 and older represents 26.7%
of the population, the highest figure in the world. The proportion of age 65 and older
population is predicted to grow to 39.9% by 2060 (Cabinet Office of Japan 2016).
Other evidence of population aging is found in the increase in Japan’s median age:
22.2 years in 1950 (Statistics Bureau 2017), and 46.7 years as of 2015. The acceleration of Japan’s population aging makes the country’s population decline much
more prominent. In 2008, the total population of Japan topped at 127.8 million
people, the time when Japanese society entered its shrinking phase (Senno 2013).
Recent predictions suggest that the population of Japan will likely decline to
88.1 million people by 2065, a 31.1% decline from the peak population in 2008
(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2017). Because
increases in life expectancy and decreases in fertility rates are becoming common
demographic transitions in not only developed countries but also in developing
countries (Harper 2014), many countries are looking at how Japanese society
responds to the emerging challenges of an aging and shrinking society.
Along with the aging trend in many countries, considerable differences are found
between urban and rural areas. Among developed countries, population aging is
more evident in rural areas than urban areas. Only three OECD countries have a
higher elderly dependency ratio
1
in urban areas than rural areas: Hungary 28.5%,
Poland 23.0%, and Slovakia 20.0% (OECD 2016). In Japan, the core Tokyo metropolitan area has a 4.6% lower proportion of age 65 and older population than the
average of other prefectures.
2
This is not caused by a higher fertility rate in Tokyo;
in fact, the fertility rate is the lowest in Tokyo, at 1.15 births per woman in 2014
1 Elderly dependency ratio is defined as the proportion of the population aged over 65 to the working-population (commonly defined as the population aged 15–64 in developed countries). Source:
OECD 2016.
2 The core part of the Tokyo metropolitan area consists of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba
prefectures. A larger grouping of the Tokyo metropolitan area includes Ibaraki, Gunma, and
Yamanashi prefectures (Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government: http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/
ENGLISH/ABOUT/HISTORY/history02.htm). The average proportion of age 65-plus population
of the core Tokyo metropolitan area is 24.3%; the average proportion of other prefectures excluding Tokyo metropolitan area and Okinawa is 28.9%. (Source: percentages calculated from
Population Census of Japan 2015)
S. Kudo