19
Even if it is at saturation, new cars can still be sold because there is demand for
replacement or renewal. In the case of Japan, on average it takes about 12 years
before an automobile is discarded, which means if we divided the figure of 60 million by 12 years we get 5 million vehicles disposed of annually. Since 1989, the
number of new registrations has averaged from the 4 million to 5 million range. The
number of new cars dovetails with the number that are discarded. Based on this, just
how many cars can be sold per capita? There are 50 automobiles for every 100 persons. Fifty annually divided by 12 years is roughly four. So, in other words, the
number of vehicles that are sold under the circumstances of automobile saturation
is four for every 100 people, or in other words 0.04 vehicles per capita. A glance at
Fig. 2.4 shows that developed countries are all converging on that figure. Furthermore,
China is quickly closing in on developed country conditions. If China’s development follows that of Japan and South Korea, then it will come close to saturation for
automobiles in 5–10 years.
In short, saturation of man-made objects produces saturation in the number of
units sold and ends up putting a halt to economic growth. This is what truly lies
behind the low growth rates of developed countries. Accordingly, it would be best
to think that no model for economic growth exists that extends from existing
scenarios.
2.1.3 Saturated Demand for Substances and Materials:
Cement
Being saturated with man-made objects also means being saturated with the
resources used for man-made objects. Figure 2.5 shows the per capita production
volume for cement at present around the world. Given that the exports and imports
of cement are comparatively small, its production volume can approximate the
amount brought into the country. Accordingly, the area below the line is the cement
input volume for each country.
Cement is a good indicator for the state of a country’s development and urbanization given that it used for roads, ports, dams, and similar projects. Every country
eventually hits a peak in the increase of input volume needed to set up the large
amounts of infrastructure en route to its period of so-called high-speed growth. In
Japan’s case, the volume rapidly increased starting in the 1960s to peak somewhere
between 1980 and 2000, after which it has been in a period of decline.
The U.S. has been a driver for many years of contemporary civilization as represented by its car-oriented society. This is likely why it has grown at a sluggish pace
through trial and error, rather than constructing paved roads and express highways
all in one go. Its total sum input volume to date is approximately 17 tons per
capita.
Meanwhile, since the 1990s, China has been moving forward with a mad burst of
construction and has already reached the level of 22 tons per capita. In other words,
2.1 Saturation of Man-Made Objects and the Material-Circulating System
Even if it is at saturation, new cars can still be sold because there is demand for
replacement or renewal. In the case of Japan, on average it takes about 12 years
before an automobile is discarded, which means if we divided the figure of 60 million by 12 years we get 5 million vehicles disposed of annually. Since 1989, the
number of new registrations has averaged from the 4 million to 5 million range. The
number of new cars dovetails with the number that are discarded. Based on this, just
how many cars can be sold per capita? There are 50 automobiles for every 100 persons. Fifty annually divided by 12 years is roughly four. So, in other words, the
number of vehicles that are sold under the circumstances of automobile saturation
is four for every 100 people, or in other words 0.04 vehicles per capita. A glance at
Fig. 2.4 shows that developed countries are all converging on that figure. Furthermore,
China is quickly closing in on developed country conditions. If China’s development follows that of Japan and South Korea, then it will come close to saturation for
automobiles in 5–10 years.
In short, saturation of man-made objects produces saturation in the number of
units sold and ends up putting a halt to economic growth. This is what truly lies
behind the low growth rates of developed countries. Accordingly, it would be best
to think that no model for economic growth exists that extends from existing
scenarios.
2.1.3 Saturated Demand for Substances and Materials:
Cement
Being saturated with man-made objects also means being saturated with the
resources used for man-made objects. Figure 2.5 shows the per capita production
volume for cement at present around the world. Given that the exports and imports
of cement are comparatively small, its production volume can approximate the
amount brought into the country. Accordingly, the area below the line is the cement
input volume for each country.
Cement is a good indicator for the state of a country’s development and urbanization given that it used for roads, ports, dams, and similar projects. Every country
eventually hits a peak in the increase of input volume needed to set up the large
amounts of infrastructure en route to its period of so-called high-speed growth. In
Japan’s case, the volume rapidly increased starting in the 1960s to peak somewhere
between 1980 and 2000, after which it has been in a period of decline.
The U.S. has been a driver for many years of contemporary civilization as represented by its car-oriented society. This is likely why it has grown at a sluggish pace
through trial and error, rather than constructing paved roads and express highways
all in one go. Its total sum input volume to date is approximately 17 tons per
capita.
Meanwhile, since the 1990s, China has been moving forward with a mad burst of
construction and has already reached the level of 22 tons per capita. In other words,
2.1 Saturation of Man-Made Objects and the Material-Circulating System