3
Furthermore, owing to the modernization of people’s ways of life, the quantity of all
the material resources they needed grew and so the volume of agricultural output
increased 7.5 times and that of industrial output by 20 times.
In concert with this, the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the atmosphere
rose. The average concentration of CO 2 in the world a century ago was around
290 ppm; in contrast, observations made at the end of 2015 by the greenhouse gases
observing satellite Ibuki showed the concentration to have exceeded 400 ppm.
The atmosphere serves to keep the temperature of the entire globe as a whole at
about 15 °C, but when the CO 2 concentration rises that equilibrium is upset. The
temperature difference may appear to be rather small when you look at the numbers.
However, the planet is definitely warming, and that will have incalculable effects on
the environment. When temperatures rise, ocean currents and airstreams change and
so does the climate. Europe has experienced record-breaking cold weather, while on
the other hand, Australia’s dairy industry has taken a major hit from droughts. Japan,
too, has seen a rise in both extremely hot days and heavy snowfall-induced damage.
These developments are believed to be signs of climate change caused by global
warming. If temperatures rise, the resulting situation will not be one that can be
dealt with simply by dressing for summer year-round.
The world’s population is forecast to rise by more than 2 billion from today’s
figures to reach 9 billion by 2050. Currently, the annual volume of CO 2 emissions
per person in developed countries stands at about 8.4 tons. If all of humanity is leading lives on par with that of such countries by 2050, the volume of CO 2 emissions
will reach 75 billion tons per year. By my research team’s provisional calculations,
the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere will be 600 ppm. Even compared to the
change in concentration over the past 100 years, that which will occur in the next 40
is overly rapid.
The IPCC’s worst-case scenario of a maximum rise of 4.8 °C assumes that no
additional measures are taken to combat warming beyond those of today, while the
best-case scenario of 0.3 °C presumes that very strict measures are taken. It goes
without saying which scenario is better. In order to maintain the global environment, humanity should be aiming for achieving a low-carbon society that reduces
the volume of CO 2 emissions as much as possible.
1.1.4 The Threat of Global Warming
Each of the reports the IPCC has issued have included an assessment of the effects
that human activities have on warming. The First Assessment Report (FAR) issued
in 1990 limited itself to mild comments to the effect that there were concerns that
anthropogenic greenhouse gases could cause climate change. However, the expressions used have grown stronger with each report, with AR5 saying in essence that it
was extremely likely that the primary factor behind the warming in the second half
of the twentieth century was due to human influences. The degree of certainty is
greater than 95%.
1.1 Behind the Birth of Vision 2050
Furthermore, owing to the modernization of people’s ways of life, the quantity of all
the material resources they needed grew and so the volume of agricultural output
increased 7.5 times and that of industrial output by 20 times.
In concert with this, the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the atmosphere
rose. The average concentration of CO 2 in the world a century ago was around
290 ppm; in contrast, observations made at the end of 2015 by the greenhouse gases
observing satellite Ibuki showed the concentration to have exceeded 400 ppm.
The atmosphere serves to keep the temperature of the entire globe as a whole at
about 15 °C, but when the CO 2 concentration rises that equilibrium is upset. The
temperature difference may appear to be rather small when you look at the numbers.
However, the planet is definitely warming, and that will have incalculable effects on
the environment. When temperatures rise, ocean currents and airstreams change and
so does the climate. Europe has experienced record-breaking cold weather, while on
the other hand, Australia’s dairy industry has taken a major hit from droughts. Japan,
too, has seen a rise in both extremely hot days and heavy snowfall-induced damage.
These developments are believed to be signs of climate change caused by global
warming. If temperatures rise, the resulting situation will not be one that can be
dealt with simply by dressing for summer year-round.
The world’s population is forecast to rise by more than 2 billion from today’s
figures to reach 9 billion by 2050. Currently, the annual volume of CO 2 emissions
per person in developed countries stands at about 8.4 tons. If all of humanity is leading lives on par with that of such countries by 2050, the volume of CO 2 emissions
will reach 75 billion tons per year. By my research team’s provisional calculations,
the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere will be 600 ppm. Even compared to the
change in concentration over the past 100 years, that which will occur in the next 40
is overly rapid.
The IPCC’s worst-case scenario of a maximum rise of 4.8 °C assumes that no
additional measures are taken to combat warming beyond those of today, while the
best-case scenario of 0.3 °C presumes that very strict measures are taken. It goes
without saying which scenario is better. In order to maintain the global environment, humanity should be aiming for achieving a low-carbon society that reduces
the volume of CO 2 emissions as much as possible.
1.1.4 The Threat of Global Warming
Each of the reports the IPCC has issued have included an assessment of the effects
that human activities have on warming. The First Assessment Report (FAR) issued
in 1990 limited itself to mild comments to the effect that there were concerns that
anthropogenic greenhouse gases could cause climate change. However, the expressions used have grown stronger with each report, with AR5 saying in essence that it
was extremely likely that the primary factor behind the warming in the second half
of the twentieth century was due to human influences. The degree of certainty is
greater than 95%.
1.1 Behind the Birth of Vision 2050