Chapter 9
Methodological Approach of the GEF IEO’s
Climate Change Mitigation Impact
Evaluation: Assessing Progress in Market
Change for Reduction of CO 2 Emissions
Aaron Zazueta and Neeraj Kumar Negi
Abstract This chapter presents the methodological approach adopted in the evaluation of GEF support to market change for climate change mitigation in four
emerging markets: China, India, Mexico and Russia. The evaluation was completed
in October 2013. This evaluation included 18 completed and fully evaluated GEF
mitigation projects covering various sectors with opportunities for renewable
energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction. A theory of change
approach was used to undertake a comparative analysis across projects aiming to
tease out changes across diverse markets or markets segments in different countries
as a consequence of GEF support. While attention was given to the extent to which
projects resulted in actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, more
emphasis was placed on understanding the extent and forms by which GEF projects
contributed to long term market changes resulting in GHG emission reductions and
assessing the added value of GEF support in the context of multiple factors
affecting market change.
Keywords Impact evaluation • Climate change mitigation • Sustainable
development • Mixed methods • Theory of change • Market barriers • Complex
systems
A. Zazueta (*)
Independent Consultant, New York, USA
e-mail: a@zazuetagroup.com
N.K. Negi
Global Environment Facility, Independent Evaluation Office, Washington, DC, USA
e-mail: nnegi1@thegef.org
© The Author(s) 2017
J.I. Uitto et al. (eds.), Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable
Development, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-43702-6_9
153
Methodological Approach of the GEF IEO’s
Climate Change Mitigation Impact
Evaluation: Assessing Progress in Market
Change for Reduction of CO 2 Emissions
Aaron Zazueta and Neeraj Kumar Negi
Abstract This chapter presents the methodological approach adopted in the evaluation of GEF support to market change for climate change mitigation in four
emerging markets: China, India, Mexico and Russia. The evaluation was completed
in October 2013. This evaluation included 18 completed and fully evaluated GEF
mitigation projects covering various sectors with opportunities for renewable
energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction. A theory of change
approach was used to undertake a comparative analysis across projects aiming to
tease out changes across diverse markets or markets segments in different countries
as a consequence of GEF support. While attention was given to the extent to which
projects resulted in actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, more
emphasis was placed on understanding the extent and forms by which GEF projects
contributed to long term market changes resulting in GHG emission reductions and
assessing the added value of GEF support in the context of multiple factors
affecting market change.
Keywords Impact evaluation • Climate change mitigation • Sustainable
development • Mixed methods • Theory of change • Market barriers • Complex
systems
A. Zazueta (*)
Independent Consultant, New York, USA
e-mail: a@zazuetagroup.com
N.K. Negi
Global Environment Facility, Independent Evaluation Office, Washington, DC, USA
e-mail: nnegi1@thegef.org
© The Author(s) 2017
J.I. Uitto et al. (eds.), Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable
Development, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-43702-6_9
153