world is expected to increase by more than 47 % by 2050, with two-thirds of the
new cultivated land coming from converting forests and wetland.
2 These figures
underscore the importance of examining factors affecting agricultural decisions
especially within forested areas, such as forest reserves.
3
Using a mix of methods that includes an unbalanced panel dataset of 670 villages
located within Forest Reserves of Chiang Mai, Thailand, and a study of historical
accounts of the evolution of forest reserve legislation and land rights within forest
reserves, I examine the following questions: To what extent do policies that
encourage cultivation lead to deforestation? Is the forest frontier always adversely
affected by policies that encourage cultivation or is it possible to develop win-win
strategies? What is the net impact of policies that are otherwise expected to increase
agricultural profitability such as secure land rights, output prices and lower transportation costs, on the forest frontier?
Specifically I do two things: First I measure the effect of variables that can be
influenced by policy such as transportation costs, population and perceptions of
land rights on the agricultural frontier and cultivation intensity. Second, I combine
this data with reported land property records to understand and measure how
perceptions of land tenure security affect agricultural expansion and intensity. In
so doing I examine traditional assumptions about ethnic tribes that inhabit forest
reserves in Thailand. This analysis thus sheds light on the extent to which assumptions about land tenure security and particularly assesses claims that ethnic tribes
are significant drivers of deforestation within forest reserves.
4
There are two main assumptions that are salient in this study. The first assumption is that population within Forest Reserves is exogenous to crop choice: during
the period of this study 1986–1996, population movement and size within reserved
areas of Thailand was controlled by administrative authorities who did not allow
mass migrations to occur.
5 Thus although during 1986–1996, the population of
Chiang Mai province rose by more than 15 %, population in villages that are located
within forest reserves (and are the subject of this study) grew at less than 1 % per
year. The second assumption is that access to markets is exogenous i.e. roads were
not built specifically to provide the ethnic tribes access to markets.
6,7 There is now
substantial evidence that road building in this region took place before the study
period and was undertaken primarily to provide military access to remote areas.
2 Also see Fischer and Heilig (1997).
3 See for example Alix-Garcia et al. (2011, 2014), Andamet al. (2007), Andersson et al. 2011, and
Bank and Sills (2014).
4 See for example Delang (2002).
5 Personal communication, Gershon Feder, The World Bank, 2004.
6 There are some other agencies of the government and state, that construct roads for special
purposes, but their role is relatively minor.
7 Road construction and investments related to improvements in access are undertaken by three
agencies in Thailand: The Department of Highways of the Ministry of Communications, the Office
of Accelerated Rural Development of the Ministry of Interior (ARD) and the Department of Land
Administration (DOLA).
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J. Puri
new cultivated land coming from converting forests and wetland.
2 These figures
underscore the importance of examining factors affecting agricultural decisions
especially within forested areas, such as forest reserves.
3
Using a mix of methods that includes an unbalanced panel dataset of 670 villages
located within Forest Reserves of Chiang Mai, Thailand, and a study of historical
accounts of the evolution of forest reserve legislation and land rights within forest
reserves, I examine the following questions: To what extent do policies that
encourage cultivation lead to deforestation? Is the forest frontier always adversely
affected by policies that encourage cultivation or is it possible to develop win-win
strategies? What is the net impact of policies that are otherwise expected to increase
agricultural profitability such as secure land rights, output prices and lower transportation costs, on the forest frontier?
Specifically I do two things: First I measure the effect of variables that can be
influenced by policy such as transportation costs, population and perceptions of
land rights on the agricultural frontier and cultivation intensity. Second, I combine
this data with reported land property records to understand and measure how
perceptions of land tenure security affect agricultural expansion and intensity. In
so doing I examine traditional assumptions about ethnic tribes that inhabit forest
reserves in Thailand. This analysis thus sheds light on the extent to which assumptions about land tenure security and particularly assesses claims that ethnic tribes
are significant drivers of deforestation within forest reserves.
4
There are two main assumptions that are salient in this study. The first assumption is that population within Forest Reserves is exogenous to crop choice: during
the period of this study 1986–1996, population movement and size within reserved
areas of Thailand was controlled by administrative authorities who did not allow
mass migrations to occur.
5 Thus although during 1986–1996, the population of
Chiang Mai province rose by more than 15 %, population in villages that are located
within forest reserves (and are the subject of this study) grew at less than 1 % per
year. The second assumption is that access to markets is exogenous i.e. roads were
not built specifically to provide the ethnic tribes access to markets.
6,7 There is now
substantial evidence that road building in this region took place before the study
period and was undertaken primarily to provide military access to remote areas.
2 Also see Fischer and Heilig (1997).
3 See for example Alix-Garcia et al. (2011, 2014), Andamet al. (2007), Andersson et al. 2011, and
Bank and Sills (2014).
4 See for example Delang (2002).
5 Personal communication, Gershon Feder, The World Bank, 2004.
6 There are some other agencies of the government and state, that construct roads for special
purposes, but their role is relatively minor.
7 Road construction and investments related to improvements in access are undertaken by three
agencies in Thailand: The Department of Highways of the Ministry of Communications, the Office
of Accelerated Rural Development of the Ministry of Interior (ARD) and the Department of Land
Administration (DOLA).
132
J. Puri