Evaluation of Optimal Power Generation
Mix Considering Nuclear Power Plants’
Shut-Down Risk
Hiromu Matsuzawa, Ryoichi Komiyama and Yasumasa Fujii
Abstract After Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, resilience engineering
has emerged as a new paradigm of risk management, and the design of resilient
energy system is getting more and more important. Energy model analysis based on
mathematical programming contributes to discussing how to implement resilience
into energy system by identifying quantitative suggestions. In this paper, as an
example of such analysis, the authors try to derive possible appropriate measures to
enhance electricity supply system resilience to successive nuclear power plants’
shut-down risk. The model developed in this paper is a dynamic power generation
planning model, which considers nuclear power plants’ shut-down risk stochastically and identifies resilient capacity expansion in Japan from 2012 to 2030 under
the uncertainty of the risk from a quantitative perspective. This resilient capacity
expansion includes the necessity of alternative power resources and demand
response compensating for supply capacity loss due to nuclear power plants’
shut-down, considering economic constraints. Simulation results successfully show
the need for these measures in the capacity expansion. Importantly, the suggestion
is not like a future prediction but a normative image of the system through the
comprehensive incorporation of forecasted future parameters and scenarios. The
more detailed the parameters and the scenarios are, the better image can be
obtained. Learning from past accidents and updating our scientific knowledge base
will detail the parameters and the scenarios and make energy model analysis very
effective. It will tell us how to make resilient energy system.
Keywords Energy model analysis Á Resilient energy system Á Power generation
planning Á Nuclear power plants’ shut-down Á Stochastic dynamic programming
H. Matsuzawa (&) Á Y. Fujii
Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: matsuzawa@esl.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
R. Komiyama
Resilience Engineering Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_25
289
Mix Considering Nuclear Power Plants’
Shut-Down Risk
Hiromu Matsuzawa, Ryoichi Komiyama and Yasumasa Fujii
Abstract After Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, resilience engineering
has emerged as a new paradigm of risk management, and the design of resilient
energy system is getting more and more important. Energy model analysis based on
mathematical programming contributes to discussing how to implement resilience
into energy system by identifying quantitative suggestions. In this paper, as an
example of such analysis, the authors try to derive possible appropriate measures to
enhance electricity supply system resilience to successive nuclear power plants’
shut-down risk. The model developed in this paper is a dynamic power generation
planning model, which considers nuclear power plants’ shut-down risk stochastically and identifies resilient capacity expansion in Japan from 2012 to 2030 under
the uncertainty of the risk from a quantitative perspective. This resilient capacity
expansion includes the necessity of alternative power resources and demand
response compensating for supply capacity loss due to nuclear power plants’
shut-down, considering economic constraints. Simulation results successfully show
the need for these measures in the capacity expansion. Importantly, the suggestion
is not like a future prediction but a normative image of the system through the
comprehensive incorporation of forecasted future parameters and scenarios. The
more detailed the parameters and the scenarios are, the better image can be
obtained. Learning from past accidents and updating our scientific knowledge base
will detail the parameters and the scenarios and make energy model analysis very
effective. It will tell us how to make resilient energy system.
Keywords Energy model analysis Á Resilient energy system Á Power generation
planning Á Nuclear power plants’ shut-down Á Stochastic dynamic programming
H. Matsuzawa (&) Á Y. Fujii
Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: matsuzawa@esl.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
R. Komiyama
Resilience Engineering Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_25
289