Considering Nuclear Accident in Energy
Modeling Analysis
Ryoichi Komiyama
Abstract After Fukushima nuclear accident, alternative energy sources show a
dramatic growth such as natural gas, petroleum and solar photovoltaic to compensate the loss of nuclear energy supply in Japan, and in the latest national energy
policy, the government plans to promote renewable energy at a scale larger than the
one aimed in the previous policy. Hence, the Fukushima accident can be regarded
as the tipping point for the country to pursue alternative energy and environmental
policy adjusting into the social circumstance after the Fukushima. So far, energy
model has been developed to discuss long-term energy scenario in a consistent way
and to analyze the effectiveness of energy policy. However, the most of the model
developed until now does not explicitly consider the impact of nuclear accident on
the long-term pathway of energy portfolio, in spite of the fact that the Fukushima
accident is actually observed to dramatically change the situation of energy demand
and supply in Japan. This manuscript aims to overview the transition of energy
supply and demand in Japan after the Fukushima and to discuss the possibility of
considering nuclear accident in energy modeling analysis by applying stochastic
dynamic programming.
Keywords Nuclear energy Á Nuclear accident Á Energy mix Á Energy modeling Á
Stochastic dynamic programming
1 Introduction
Energy supply serves as a basis to maintain socio-economic activity. For Japan
which highly relies on the import of energy resource from other countries, the
reinforcement of energy security is considered as an important challenge to be
tackled with. In the global energy market, Japan is one of the big energy consumers
R. Komiyama (&)
Resilience Engineering Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: komiyama@n.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_8
97
Modeling Analysis
Ryoichi Komiyama
Abstract After Fukushima nuclear accident, alternative energy sources show a
dramatic growth such as natural gas, petroleum and solar photovoltaic to compensate the loss of nuclear energy supply in Japan, and in the latest national energy
policy, the government plans to promote renewable energy at a scale larger than the
one aimed in the previous policy. Hence, the Fukushima accident can be regarded
as the tipping point for the country to pursue alternative energy and environmental
policy adjusting into the social circumstance after the Fukushima. So far, energy
model has been developed to discuss long-term energy scenario in a consistent way
and to analyze the effectiveness of energy policy. However, the most of the model
developed until now does not explicitly consider the impact of nuclear accident on
the long-term pathway of energy portfolio, in spite of the fact that the Fukushima
accident is actually observed to dramatically change the situation of energy demand
and supply in Japan. This manuscript aims to overview the transition of energy
supply and demand in Japan after the Fukushima and to discuss the possibility of
considering nuclear accident in energy modeling analysis by applying stochastic
dynamic programming.
Keywords Nuclear energy Á Nuclear accident Á Energy mix Á Energy modeling Á
Stochastic dynamic programming
1 Introduction
Energy supply serves as a basis to maintain socio-economic activity. For Japan
which highly relies on the import of energy resource from other countries, the
reinforcement of energy security is considered as an important challenge to be
tackled with. In the global energy market, Japan is one of the big energy consumers
R. Komiyama (&)
Resilience Engineering Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: komiyama@n.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_8
97