3.15 Reducing Conflict
53
Would it also be possible to actually measure the forces creating conflict? Yes,
I think one can build a ConflictMap, which illustrates regional and international
tensions and explains how they come about. In fact, when working in my team,
Thomas Chadefaux mined millions of news articles over a period of more than
100 years and performed a sentiment analysis for words indicating conflict. This
allowed him to quantify the level of tension between countries in the world. Moreover,
he could show that the level of tension could be used to predict the likelihood of
outbreaks of war within a 6–12 months time period.
57 Such advance warning signals
might give politicians enough time to engage in diplomacy to peacefully resolve the
tensions before it’s too late. Our analyses also revealed how tension spreads from
one country to the next, destabilizing a huge region, as it happened after the war in
Iraq. This might also have produced fertile ground for the rise of the Islamic State
(IS).
3.16 What We Can Learn from Jerusalem
Another data-driven study analyzed a problem that has worried the world for many
decades: the conflict in the Middle East. Why haven’t we been able to end this conflict
yet? A classical Big Data approach, even if we knew the trajectories of all the bullets
shot, couldn’t really reveal the causes of this conflict. Nevertheless, it is possible to
understand the roots of the conflict. A few years ago, I initiated a study with Ravi
Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, Maayan Mor, and Karsten Donnay, which lead to an
empirically grounded, agent-based model.
58 Our model suggests that intercultural
distance is the main driver of the conflict.
A further analysis reveals that violent events are correlated with each other.
59 So,
there is a responsive dynamic, whereby each side retaliates for previous attacks by
the other side.
60 For example, Palestinians retaliate against Israeli violence and vice
versa. What does this tell us? Basically, both sides punish each other for violence
that they suffered before. It seems that each party tries to send the message: “Stop
being violent to us or you will have to pay a high price!” From the point of view of
rational choice theory, this should stop the chain of violence. As one event triggers
another, usually bigger one, or even several, the conflict becomes increasingly costly
for both sides over time. However, rather than creating peace, a deadly spiral of
violence sets in. An Israeli documentary film entitled “The Gatekeepers”,
61 which
interviewed previous secret service chiefs, came to a remarkable conclusion: “We
have won every battle, but we are losing the war.” In other words, it doesn’t pay off to
be violent, quite the opposite!
57 Chadefaux [43].
58 Bhavnani et al. [44].
59 Jaeger and Paserman [45].
60 See the movies http://youtu.be/JG86BPezqAU and http://youtu.be/J64kEPa2LaI.
61 See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gatekeepers_(film).
53
Would it also be possible to actually measure the forces creating conflict? Yes,
I think one can build a ConflictMap, which illustrates regional and international
tensions and explains how they come about. In fact, when working in my team,
Thomas Chadefaux mined millions of news articles over a period of more than
100 years and performed a sentiment analysis for words indicating conflict. This
allowed him to quantify the level of tension between countries in the world. Moreover,
he could show that the level of tension could be used to predict the likelihood of
outbreaks of war within a 6–12 months time period.
57 Such advance warning signals
might give politicians enough time to engage in diplomacy to peacefully resolve the
tensions before it’s too late. Our analyses also revealed how tension spreads from
one country to the next, destabilizing a huge region, as it happened after the war in
Iraq. This might also have produced fertile ground for the rise of the Islamic State
(IS).
3.16 What We Can Learn from Jerusalem
Another data-driven study analyzed a problem that has worried the world for many
decades: the conflict in the Middle East. Why haven’t we been able to end this conflict
yet? A classical Big Data approach, even if we knew the trajectories of all the bullets
shot, couldn’t really reveal the causes of this conflict. Nevertheless, it is possible to
understand the roots of the conflict. A few years ago, I initiated a study with Ravi
Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, Maayan Mor, and Karsten Donnay, which lead to an
empirically grounded, agent-based model.
58 Our model suggests that intercultural
distance is the main driver of the conflict.
A further analysis reveals that violent events are correlated with each other.
59 So,
there is a responsive dynamic, whereby each side retaliates for previous attacks by
the other side.
60 For example, Palestinians retaliate against Israeli violence and vice
versa. What does this tell us? Basically, both sides punish each other for violence
that they suffered before. It seems that each party tries to send the message: “Stop
being violent to us or you will have to pay a high price!” From the point of view of
rational choice theory, this should stop the chain of violence. As one event triggers
another, usually bigger one, or even several, the conflict becomes increasingly costly
for both sides over time. However, rather than creating peace, a deadly spiral of
violence sets in. An Israeli documentary film entitled “The Gatekeepers”,
61 which
interviewed previous secret service chiefs, came to a remarkable conclusion: “We
have won every battle, but we are losing the war.” In other words, it doesn’t pay off to
be violent, quite the opposite!
57 Chadefaux [43].
58 Bhavnani et al. [44].
59 Jaeger and Paserman [45].
60 See the movies http://youtu.be/JG86BPezqAU and http://youtu.be/J64kEPa2LaI.
61 See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gatekeepers_(film).