9.13 Future Decision-Making Institutions
189
Furthermore, based on what we have learned above, one should consider turning
away from two modes of decision-making that are common today. First, decisionmaking should not be the sole province of a few “experts” taking decisions in a topdown way. Second, we must recognize that simple majority voting is also not the
best decision-making mechanism. Therefore, if we want to make better decisions,
we must say goodbye to the concept of the “wise king” and also to the principle of
majorities deciding what should apply to everybody. This may be surprising, but in
future we need better solutions to cope with the quickly increasing complexity of our
world. This is particularly important in times of transition, where the majority sticks
to old principles while those who understand the guiding principles of the future are
still in a minority. The transformation of our current society into a digital society is
a perfect example for this.
9.14 How to Produce Collective Intelligence
So, how could we create a better system to unleash the power of “collective intelligence”? First, we must abandon the idea that reality can be well described by a
single model. In many cases, such as modeling traffic flow, there are several models
which perform similarly well.
21 This speaks for a pluralistic modeling approach. In
fact, when the path of a hurricane is predicted or the impact of a car accident is
simulated on a computer, it turns out that an average of several competing models
often provides the best predictions.
22
In other words, the complexity of today’s world cannot be grasped by a single
model, mind, computer, or Artificial Intelligence system. Therefore, it’s good if
several groups try to find the best possible solution independently of each other.
Although all these models will give an over-simplified picture of our complex world,
if we combine these different perspectives, we can often get a better approximation of the full picture. This might be compared to visiting an ornate cathedral in
which every photograph only reflects some aspects of its complexity and beauty. One
photographer alone, no matter how talented or how well equipped, cannot capture
the full structure of the cathedral with a single photograph. A full 3D picture of
the cathedral can only be gained by combining plenty of photographs representing
different perspectives.
Let’s discuss another complex problem, namely finding the right insurance.
Usually, it’s not realistic to read all of the small print and detailed regulations for
every insurance policy on the market. Instead, we would probably ask our colleagues
and friends about their experiences with their own insurers. We would then evaluate
the insurances they recommend in greater detail to find the best policy that meets our
needs. In this way, we engage in a collective evaluation process to solve a complex
task that nobody could master alone. In the Internet age, this classical word-of-mouth
21 Brockfeld et al. [17].
22 Helbing [18]
189
Furthermore, based on what we have learned above, one should consider turning
away from two modes of decision-making that are common today. First, decisionmaking should not be the sole province of a few “experts” taking decisions in a topdown way. Second, we must recognize that simple majority voting is also not the
best decision-making mechanism. Therefore, if we want to make better decisions,
we must say goodbye to the concept of the “wise king” and also to the principle of
majorities deciding what should apply to everybody. This may be surprising, but in
future we need better solutions to cope with the quickly increasing complexity of our
world. This is particularly important in times of transition, where the majority sticks
to old principles while those who understand the guiding principles of the future are
still in a minority. The transformation of our current society into a digital society is
a perfect example for this.
9.14 How to Produce Collective Intelligence
So, how could we create a better system to unleash the power of “collective intelligence”? First, we must abandon the idea that reality can be well described by a
single model. In many cases, such as modeling traffic flow, there are several models
which perform similarly well.
21 This speaks for a pluralistic modeling approach. In
fact, when the path of a hurricane is predicted or the impact of a car accident is
simulated on a computer, it turns out that an average of several competing models
often provides the best predictions.
22
In other words, the complexity of today’s world cannot be grasped by a single
model, mind, computer, or Artificial Intelligence system. Therefore, it’s good if
several groups try to find the best possible solution independently of each other.
Although all these models will give an over-simplified picture of our complex world,
if we combine these different perspectives, we can often get a better approximation of the full picture. This might be compared to visiting an ornate cathedral in
which every photograph only reflects some aspects of its complexity and beauty. One
photographer alone, no matter how talented or how well equipped, cannot capture
the full structure of the cathedral with a single photograph. A full 3D picture of
the cathedral can only be gained by combining plenty of photographs representing
different perspectives.
Let’s discuss another complex problem, namely finding the right insurance.
Usually, it’s not realistic to read all of the small print and detailed regulations for
every insurance policy on the market. Instead, we would probably ask our colleagues
and friends about their experiences with their own insurers. We would then evaluate
the insurances they recommend in greater detail to find the best policy that meets our
needs. In this way, we engage in a collective evaluation process to solve a complex
task that nobody could master alone. In the Internet age, this classical word-of-mouth
21 Brockfeld et al. [17].
22 Helbing [18]