90
5 Genie Out of the Bottle
In 1996, IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated the best chess player in the world at that
time, Garry Kasparov (*1963). Computers can now also beat the best backgammon
players, the best scrabble players and the best players in many other strategic games.
In 2011, IBM’s Watson, a “cognitive computer”, which is able to judge the relevance
of information from the Internet, even beat the best human experts in answering
questions in the game show “Jeopardy!”
8 Now, Watson is taking care of customer
hotlines, as the computer is better at managing all the knowledge required to answer
customer queries. Watson understands natural language and comes increasingly close
to what humans can do. In many respects Watson is even superior to humans. Now,
by investing 1 billion dollars in cognitive computing technology, IBM hopes to earn
100 times that amount in the years to come.
Europe invests a comparable sum—1 billion Euros—to build a supercomputer
which can simulate the human brain. The USA even decided to spend $3 billion on a
brain project. The Google Brain project, led by the technology guru Ray Kurzweil,
is another attempt to turn the Internet into an intelligent entity that can think and
decide.
9
While building computers with performance comparable to humans may still
take a few years, the Google car—a driverless vehicle developed by the tech giant—
is already there. It may soon navigate our roads more safely than human drivers.
Furthermore, about 70% of all financial transactions in the world’s stock markets
are now performed by autonomous trading algorithms. Therefore, computers and
robots are increasingly doing our work, and they will replace many jobs that can
be performed according to rules and routines. We may even lose highly qualified
jobs which depend on skilled judgments, including medical doctors, care workers,
scientists, lawyers, managers, and politicians, and to some degree even teachers and
parents. For example, South Korea recently invested in robotic childcare, and Japan
is building robots to take care of elderly people. All of these developments raise the
question: what role will humans play in future? To stay competitive, would we have
to become more robotic, or would we better distinguish ourselves by engaging in
less predictable activities and more creative jobs?
5.5 When Will We See Artificial Superintelligences
and Superhumans?
Only two years ago, most people would have considered it impossible that algorithms, computers, or robots would ever challenge humans as the “crown of creation”.
This has changed.
10 Intelligent machines are learning by themselves. For example,
8 Kelly and Hamm [3], Hurwitz et al. [4].
9 Kurzweil [5].
10 Barrat [6]. Edge Question 2015: What do you think about machines that think? http://edge.org/
annual-question/what-do-youthink-about-machines-that-think.
5 Genie Out of the Bottle
In 1996, IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated the best chess player in the world at that
time, Garry Kasparov (*1963). Computers can now also beat the best backgammon
players, the best scrabble players and the best players in many other strategic games.
In 2011, IBM’s Watson, a “cognitive computer”, which is able to judge the relevance
of information from the Internet, even beat the best human experts in answering
questions in the game show “Jeopardy!”
8 Now, Watson is taking care of customer
hotlines, as the computer is better at managing all the knowledge required to answer
customer queries. Watson understands natural language and comes increasingly close
to what humans can do. In many respects Watson is even superior to humans. Now,
by investing 1 billion dollars in cognitive computing technology, IBM hopes to earn
100 times that amount in the years to come.
Europe invests a comparable sum—1 billion Euros—to build a supercomputer
which can simulate the human brain. The USA even decided to spend $3 billion on a
brain project. The Google Brain project, led by the technology guru Ray Kurzweil,
is another attempt to turn the Internet into an intelligent entity that can think and
decide.
9
While building computers with performance comparable to humans may still
take a few years, the Google car—a driverless vehicle developed by the tech giant—
is already there. It may soon navigate our roads more safely than human drivers.
Furthermore, about 70% of all financial transactions in the world’s stock markets
are now performed by autonomous trading algorithms. Therefore, computers and
robots are increasingly doing our work, and they will replace many jobs that can
be performed according to rules and routines. We may even lose highly qualified
jobs which depend on skilled judgments, including medical doctors, care workers,
scientists, lawyers, managers, and politicians, and to some degree even teachers and
parents. For example, South Korea recently invested in robotic childcare, and Japan
is building robots to take care of elderly people. All of these developments raise the
question: what role will humans play in future? To stay competitive, would we have
to become more robotic, or would we better distinguish ourselves by engaging in
less predictable activities and more creative jobs?
5.5 When Will We See Artificial Superintelligences
and Superhumans?
Only two years ago, most people would have considered it impossible that algorithms, computers, or robots would ever challenge humans as the “crown of creation”.
This has changed.
10 Intelligent machines are learning by themselves. For example,
8 Kelly and Hamm [3], Hurwitz et al. [4].
9 Kurzweil [5].
10 Barrat [6]. Edge Question 2015: What do you think about machines that think? http://edge.org/
annual-question/what-do-youthink-about-machines-that-think.