ROBOTS us
however, point out that progress in this direction, although at times
glacial, is happening in labs around the world. For example, for the
past few years the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA), which often funds state-of-the-art technology projects, has
sponsored a $2 million prize for the creation of a driverless vehicle that
can navigate by itself around a rugged terrain in the Mojave Desert. In
2004 not a single entry in the DARPA Grand Challenge could finish the
race. In fact the top car managed to travel 7.4 miles before breaking
down. But in 2005 the Stanford Racing Team's driverless car successfully navigated the grueling 152-mile course (although it took the car
seven hours to do so). Four other cars also completed the race. (Some
critics noted that the rules permitted the cars to use GPS navigation
systems along a long deserted path; in effect, the cars could follow a
predetermined road map without many obstructions, so the cars never
had to recognize complex obstacles in their path. In real driving, cars
have to navigate unpredictably around other cars, pedestrians, construction sites, traffic jams, and so forth.)
Bill Gates is cautiously optimistic that robotic machines may be
the "next big thing." He likens the field of robotics now to the personal
computer field he helped to start thirty years ago. Like the PC, it may
be poised to take off. "No one can say with any certainty when-or ifthis industry will achieve critical mass," he writes. "If it does, though,
it may well change the world."
(Once robots with humanlike intelligence become commercially
available, there will be a huge market for them. Although true robots
do not exist today, preprogrammed robots do exist and have proliferated. The International Federation of Robotics estimates that there
were about 2 million of these personal robots in 2004, and that another
7 million would be installed by 2008. The Japanese Robot Association
predicts that by 2025 the personal robot industry, today worth $5 billion, will be worth $50 billion per year.)
however, point out that progress in this direction, although at times
glacial, is happening in labs around the world. For example, for the
past few years the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA), which often funds state-of-the-art technology projects, has
sponsored a $2 million prize for the creation of a driverless vehicle that
can navigate by itself around a rugged terrain in the Mojave Desert. In
2004 not a single entry in the DARPA Grand Challenge could finish the
race. In fact the top car managed to travel 7.4 miles before breaking
down. But in 2005 the Stanford Racing Team's driverless car successfully navigated the grueling 152-mile course (although it took the car
seven hours to do so). Four other cars also completed the race. (Some
critics noted that the rules permitted the cars to use GPS navigation
systems along a long deserted path; in effect, the cars could follow a
predetermined road map without many obstructions, so the cars never
had to recognize complex obstacles in their path. In real driving, cars
have to navigate unpredictably around other cars, pedestrians, construction sites, traffic jams, and so forth.)
Bill Gates is cautiously optimistic that robotic machines may be
the "next big thing." He likens the field of robotics now to the personal
computer field he helped to start thirty years ago. Like the PC, it may
be poised to take off. "No one can say with any certainty when-or ifthis industry will achieve critical mass," he writes. "If it does, though,
it may well change the world."
(Once robots with humanlike intelligence become commercially
available, there will be a huge market for them. Although true robots
do not exist today, preprogrammed robots do exist and have proliferated. The International Federation of Robotics estimates that there
were about 2 million of these personal robots in 2004, and that another
7 million would be installed by 2008. The Japanese Robot Association
predicts that by 2025 the personal robot industry, today worth $5 billion, will be worth $50 billion per year.)