order to decide and implement air quality improvement measures. FAIRMODE
activities are addressing this challenge, but a stronger focus on the urban and local
scales is needed.
Optimization problems cannot embed full 3D deterministic multi-phase models
for describing the nonlinear dynamics linking precursor emissions to air pollutant
concentrations because of their computational requirements. IAMs therefore rely on
simplified relationships for describing the links between emissions and air quality,
which are called “source/receptor (S/R) relationships” (or “surrogate models”).
These types of models can be both linear and nonlinear, and examples can be found
in literature for both types of approaches. Future research will need to extend
surrogate model approaches to properly describe the most important processes in
terms of chemistry, meteorology at the appropriate scale accounting for potential
non-linearity. Moreover, it will need to focus on proper “Design of Experiments”
methods (that is to say, the way in which CTM simulations should be planned, for
identification of the surrogate models). On the one hand they need to maximize the
information used to identify S/R relationships and, on the other hand, to limit the
number of CTM simulations required to derive these relationships.
Finally, integrated assessment long-term studies should take into account both
air quality and climate change issues. In this framework, it is important to develop
the use of future meteorological simulations for running AQ models. A challenge is
the development in IAM of online chemical transport models, which allow the
study of feedback interactions between meteorological/chemical processes within
the atmosphere, and thus take into account AQ/climate change connections.
4.3.4 Impact (Human Health)
Traditionally, modelling tools have addressed air quality assessment issues
including dispersion and chemistry but rarely have considered also exposure or
health indicators. However, Health Impact Assessment (HIA) should be part of
integrated assessment, as it usually involves a combination of procedures, methods
and tools by which an air quality policy can be judged in terms of societal impact.
Quantification of health effects in HIA (Pope and Dockery 2006) is particularly
important, as knowing the size of an effect helps decision makers to distinguish
between the details and the main issues that need to be addressed and facilitates
decision making by clarifying the trade-offs that may be entailed. Secondly, adding
up all positive and negative health effects using appropriate modelling methods
allows for the use of economic instruments such as cost-effectiveness analysis,
which further aids decision-making.
Exposure-response functions (which quantify the change in population health
due to a given exposure) are identified as the main sources of uncertainty in an
integrated assessment (Tainio 2009), but it is also important to further explore the
“complete individual exposure to air pollution” pathways. “Complete” here means
indoor as well as outdoor air pollution over a 24 h/24 h period; “Individual” means
4 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Current EU Situation
77
activities are addressing this challenge, but a stronger focus on the urban and local
scales is needed.
Optimization problems cannot embed full 3D deterministic multi-phase models
for describing the nonlinear dynamics linking precursor emissions to air pollutant
concentrations because of their computational requirements. IAMs therefore rely on
simplified relationships for describing the links between emissions and air quality,
which are called “source/receptor (S/R) relationships” (or “surrogate models”).
These types of models can be both linear and nonlinear, and examples can be found
in literature for both types of approaches. Future research will need to extend
surrogate model approaches to properly describe the most important processes in
terms of chemistry, meteorology at the appropriate scale accounting for potential
non-linearity. Moreover, it will need to focus on proper “Design of Experiments”
methods (that is to say, the way in which CTM simulations should be planned, for
identification of the surrogate models). On the one hand they need to maximize the
information used to identify S/R relationships and, on the other hand, to limit the
number of CTM simulations required to derive these relationships.
Finally, integrated assessment long-term studies should take into account both
air quality and climate change issues. In this framework, it is important to develop
the use of future meteorological simulations for running AQ models. A challenge is
the development in IAM of online chemical transport models, which allow the
study of feedback interactions between meteorological/chemical processes within
the atmosphere, and thus take into account AQ/climate change connections.
4.3.4 Impact (Human Health)
Traditionally, modelling tools have addressed air quality assessment issues
including dispersion and chemistry but rarely have considered also exposure or
health indicators. However, Health Impact Assessment (HIA) should be part of
integrated assessment, as it usually involves a combination of procedures, methods
and tools by which an air quality policy can be judged in terms of societal impact.
Quantification of health effects in HIA (Pope and Dockery 2006) is particularly
important, as knowing the size of an effect helps decision makers to distinguish
between the details and the main issues that need to be addressed and facilitates
decision making by clarifying the trade-offs that may be entailed. Secondly, adding
up all positive and negative health effects using appropriate modelling methods
allows for the use of economic instruments such as cost-effectiveness analysis,
which further aids decision-making.
Exposure-response functions (which quantify the change in population health
due to a given exposure) are identified as the main sources of uncertainty in an
integrated assessment (Tainio 2009), but it is also important to further explore the
“complete individual exposure to air pollution” pathways. “Complete” here means
indoor as well as outdoor air pollution over a 24 h/24 h period; “Individual” means
4 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Current EU Situation
77