In case there is no reliable estimate of local level activity or practicable procedure for top-down allocation, source apportionment techniques might be considered
to detect an initial order-of-magnitude evaluation of the residential combustion
activities.
Once again, the three-level classification may be characterized by:
1. Allocation from national level values (top-down). The allocation may be based
on surrogate data representing residential combustion activity in a coarse
manner, e.g., number of residential houses or population data (in relation to
national total);
2. Based on city level estimates about respective activity (e.g. local sales statistics
of fuels or surveys about fuel use), or allocated from national data using surrogates that represent residential combustion activity more realistically (e.g.
average fuel use per household for different types of houses). Projections can
be based on city level residential combustion for each fuel/heating type
(bottom-up);
3. Activities distinguished for each house type and/or combustion technology
categories using city level survey data (bottom-up) or other locally specific data
(e.g. city level building heating/cooling model).
For large energy production and industrial plants, activity and technology
information can be sometimes attained even at individual plant or process level. For
projections, factors such as new plant or technology investments, agreed plants
shut-offs, local level goals and agreements on e.g. renewable energy, effects of
national level prospects in energy production and industry, changes in legal
requirements (e.g. IE Directive) etc. should be taken into account.
The three-level classification may be given by:
1. Allocation from national level of energy/industrial production activity for each
fuel/industrial product (top-down). The allocation may be based on production
capacity or annual production (in relation to national total) and information
about national averages of production and emission control technologies;
2. Based on local level total energy/industrial production activity amounts for each
fuel/industrial product and information about production and emission control
technologies data at local level;
3. Based on individual plant data about energy/industrial production activity
amounts as well as production and emission control technologies.
Agriculture emissions are often disregarded in urban assessments. However, at
national level, agriculture is often the major source of ammonia emissions and can
be relatively important in PM emissions. Base year data include animal numbers,
use of different types of animal houses and their ventilation and air treatment
technologies, different manure application methods etc. Projections typically
include development of animal numbers following national agriculture policies
and/or market prospects of agricultural products.
16
N. Blond et al.
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