47
The semi-arid regions in the south of Huíla and in the western lowlands of
Benguela and Cuanza Sul have climates that are at the limit of the suitable range of
the crops analysed. As a result, the spatial range of suitability for heat- and droughtsensitive crops such as maize is projected to be reduced in the low-lying, coastal and
southerly parts of the study area by 2050. Climate change will also reduce the duration—or delay the onset—of the growing season for rain-fed crops such as maize
across most of the study region. The negative effects of climate change on staple
crops such as maize has the potential to undermine the wellbeing of rural households and jeopardise long-term objectives for economic development in climatevulnerable regions such as Angola. In the affected regions, the primary options for
adaptation include the promotion of both climate-resilient cultivars of maize and of
alternative crops such as cassava, millet or sorghum.
However, despite the apparent threats posed by the declining productivity of certain crops in response to climate change, this study also indicates that climate
change may create new opportunities for agricultural development through promotion of climate-resilient staples and alternative crops. In addition to crop-specific
considerations, adaptation options for Angola’s agriculture sector may include promotion of rural finance, food processing, development of irrigation infrastructure,
increased access to extension services, development of early-warning systems and
development of rural transport infrastructure.
These analyses provide a demonstration of the applications of crop suitability
models for the identification of potential climate vulnerabilities related to food
security, as well as identification of potential climate-resilient subsistence crops to
be promoted as a strategy to adapt to changing climate conditions. Modelled
approaches such as those applied in this study can be further strengthened through
the inclusion of measures for calibration and incorporating field-level measurements and local crop performance data.
References
ADB (African Development Bank) (2015) Cereal crops: rice, maize, millet, sorghum, wheat.
United Nations: Economic Commission for Africa
Ecocrop (2010) Ecocrop database. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
Rome http://ecocrop.fao.org/
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL et al (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces
for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978 http://www.worldclim.org/version1
Jarvis A, Ramirez J, Anderson B et al (2010) Scenarios of climate change within the context of
agriculture. In: Reynolds MP (ed) Climate change and crop production. CAB International,
Wallingford, pp 9–37
Liu J, Fritz S, Wesenbeeck CFA et al (2008) A spatially explicit assessment of current and future
hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Glob Planet Chang
64:225–235
4 Large Scale Crop Suitability Assessment Under Future Climate Using the Ecocrop…
The semi-arid regions in the south of Huíla and in the western lowlands of
Benguela and Cuanza Sul have climates that are at the limit of the suitable range of
the crops analysed. As a result, the spatial range of suitability for heat- and droughtsensitive crops such as maize is projected to be reduced in the low-lying, coastal and
southerly parts of the study area by 2050. Climate change will also reduce the duration—or delay the onset—of the growing season for rain-fed crops such as maize
across most of the study region. The negative effects of climate change on staple
crops such as maize has the potential to undermine the wellbeing of rural households and jeopardise long-term objectives for economic development in climatevulnerable regions such as Angola. In the affected regions, the primary options for
adaptation include the promotion of both climate-resilient cultivars of maize and of
alternative crops such as cassava, millet or sorghum.
However, despite the apparent threats posed by the declining productivity of certain crops in response to climate change, this study also indicates that climate
change may create new opportunities for agricultural development through promotion of climate-resilient staples and alternative crops. In addition to crop-specific
considerations, adaptation options for Angola’s agriculture sector may include promotion of rural finance, food processing, development of irrigation infrastructure,
increased access to extension services, development of early-warning systems and
development of rural transport infrastructure.
These analyses provide a demonstration of the applications of crop suitability
models for the identification of potential climate vulnerabilities related to food
security, as well as identification of potential climate-resilient subsistence crops to
be promoted as a strategy to adapt to changing climate conditions. Modelled
approaches such as those applied in this study can be further strengthened through
the inclusion of measures for calibration and incorporating field-level measurements and local crop performance data.
References
ADB (African Development Bank) (2015) Cereal crops: rice, maize, millet, sorghum, wheat.
United Nations: Economic Commission for Africa
Ecocrop (2010) Ecocrop database. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
Rome http://ecocrop.fao.org/
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL et al (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces
for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978 http://www.worldclim.org/version1
Jarvis A, Ramirez J, Anderson B et al (2010) Scenarios of climate change within the context of
agriculture. In: Reynolds MP (ed) Climate change and crop production. CAB International,
Wallingford, pp 9–37
Liu J, Fritz S, Wesenbeeck CFA et al (2008) A spatially explicit assessment of current and future
hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Glob Planet Chang
64:225–235
4 Large Scale Crop Suitability Assessment Under Future Climate Using the Ecocrop…