45
which has the potential to contribute meaningfully to pro-poor economic development (Theodory et al. 2014).
Previous studies of climate-change effects on cassava have suggested that productivity of cassava will not be negatively impacted by climate change and may
enjoy slight increases in certain areas of Africa, particularly in Angola (Liu et al.
2008). Jarvis et al. (2010) also reported that climate change will result in a net
increase in the range of suitable areas for cassava production (although noting that,
despite a net increase in suitable area, other areas are predicted to decline in suitability as a result of temperature increases). The results of this study support the
findings of the latter studies, suggesting that the main effect of climate change on
cassava production will be to increase the spatial extent and relatively suitability
(i.e., localised suitability index score) of existing cassava production zones. EcoCrop
analyses predict that the extent of areas suitable for cassava production will increase
in the interior highlands above the coastal escarpment, stretching northward from
the border of Huambo and Benguela, through Cuanza Sul and northwards into
Malanje. This expected improvement in the region’s suitability for cassava may be
attributable to the projected increase in Tmean from 20 to 21.5 °C, where the optimum temperature range for cassava is 20–29 °C. The trend towards increased suitability for cassava in the latter areas is projected to remain consistent from October
through the rest of the summer months.
The suitable range for cassava production is limited by the arid low-lying southern interior of Huíla and western lowlands of coastal Benguela and Cuanza Sul,
which are considered to be poorly suited for cassava production in both the baseline
and future scenarios. Potential opportunities and adaptation options for such arid
regions may include: (i) promotion of sweet potato as a perennial starch-rich alternative to cassava; (ii) adoption of relatively drought-tolerant cereals such as sorghum and millet; and (iii) promotion of increased crop diversification, including
combinations of sweet potato, cassava, legumes and drought-tolerant cereals.
It should be emphasised that the potential benefits of cassava as a climateresilient subsistence crop are unlikely to be realised without addressing existing
structural barriers in the cassava value chain. Market accessibility for cassava farmers in remote areas is hindered by the short shelf life of unprocessed cassava.
Therefore, it is recommended that efforts to promote the cultivation of cassava
should be supported by simultaneous investments in capacity-building for improved
post-harvest storage, processing and value-adding.
4.3.2.2 Maize
Maize is an important staple crop across Southern Africa and is broadly considered
to be prone to climate risk such as drought, irregular rainfall and heat stress.
Increased temperatures and an increased frequency of severe drought events pose
major concerns to cereal production in sub-Saharan Africa, as do expected increased
incidence of diseases, pests and parasitic plants (ADB 2015). Past studies have suggested that projected temperature increases could reduce the productivity of major
4 Large Scale Crop Suitability Assessment Under Future Climate Using the Ecocrop…
which has the potential to contribute meaningfully to pro-poor economic development (Theodory et al. 2014).
Previous studies of climate-change effects on cassava have suggested that productivity of cassava will not be negatively impacted by climate change and may
enjoy slight increases in certain areas of Africa, particularly in Angola (Liu et al.
2008). Jarvis et al. (2010) also reported that climate change will result in a net
increase in the range of suitable areas for cassava production (although noting that,
despite a net increase in suitable area, other areas are predicted to decline in suitability as a result of temperature increases). The results of this study support the
findings of the latter studies, suggesting that the main effect of climate change on
cassava production will be to increase the spatial extent and relatively suitability
(i.e., localised suitability index score) of existing cassava production zones. EcoCrop
analyses predict that the extent of areas suitable for cassava production will increase
in the interior highlands above the coastal escarpment, stretching northward from
the border of Huambo and Benguela, through Cuanza Sul and northwards into
Malanje. This expected improvement in the region’s suitability for cassava may be
attributable to the projected increase in Tmean from 20 to 21.5 °C, where the optimum temperature range for cassava is 20–29 °C. The trend towards increased suitability for cassava in the latter areas is projected to remain consistent from October
through the rest of the summer months.
The suitable range for cassava production is limited by the arid low-lying southern interior of Huíla and western lowlands of coastal Benguela and Cuanza Sul,
which are considered to be poorly suited for cassava production in both the baseline
and future scenarios. Potential opportunities and adaptation options for such arid
regions may include: (i) promotion of sweet potato as a perennial starch-rich alternative to cassava; (ii) adoption of relatively drought-tolerant cereals such as sorghum and millet; and (iii) promotion of increased crop diversification, including
combinations of sweet potato, cassava, legumes and drought-tolerant cereals.
It should be emphasised that the potential benefits of cassava as a climateresilient subsistence crop are unlikely to be realised without addressing existing
structural barriers in the cassava value chain. Market accessibility for cassava farmers in remote areas is hindered by the short shelf life of unprocessed cassava.
Therefore, it is recommended that efforts to promote the cultivation of cassava
should be supported by simultaneous investments in capacity-building for improved
post-harvest storage, processing and value-adding.
4.3.2.2 Maize
Maize is an important staple crop across Southern Africa and is broadly considered
to be prone to climate risk such as drought, irregular rainfall and heat stress.
Increased temperatures and an increased frequency of severe drought events pose
major concerns to cereal production in sub-Saharan Africa, as do expected increased
incidence of diseases, pests and parasitic plants (ADB 2015). Past studies have suggested that projected temperature increases could reduce the productivity of major
4 Large Scale Crop Suitability Assessment Under Future Climate Using the Ecocrop…