16
work on a small-scale or subsistence level, with their opportunities limited by persistent
poverty, lack of access to infrastructure and information, and challenges related to policy
and governance. Climate change is expected to have major negative impacts on the
livelihoods and food security of such farmers. Governments and development professionals must confront the challenge of helping them to adapt (Shackleton et al. 2015).
This paper offers a general overview of historical climate change in Africa, and
in particular how it has already led to rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. It then examines the models that provide projections—with varying levels of
certainty—of what climate change will mean for farmers across eastern and southern Africa in the coming decades (ESA).
The paper also highlights the strengths and limitations of the available information
regarding the effects of climate change. Adapting to climate change requires better projections of the specific climate hazards that will be faced at the national, regional and local
levels (Challinor et al. 2007; Muller et al. 2011). In particular, implementation of climatesmart agriculture (CSA) projects has been constrained by the lack of information on the
best responses in specific regions. There are serious gaps in observed historical weather
data at the local level across the continent, and the continuing collection of such data still
lags far behind where it should be. Strengthening the database of observed weather is critical to understanding the changes that have occurred already, to project future changes and
their impacts, and to plan appropriately to address them. Once collected and analyzed,
climate data must be communicated in ways that help development practitioners and
decision- makers understand climate impacts in specific places. Good tools are available,
but practitioners at the local level must have the access and training to use them.
Much work remains to be done. However, given that the impacts of climate
change are already being felt on the ground, it is imperative that adaptation begins
immediately. Even in places where projections are uncertain, steps can be taken
right now to implement CSA practices and make farmers more resilient in the face
of climate change.
2.2 Past and Present: Evidence Africa’s Climate Has Already
Changed
There is clear evidence that average temperatures have become warmer across the
globe. In Africa these changes became apparent starting in about 1975, and since
then temperatures have increased at a rate of about 0.03 °C per year (NOAA 2018;
Hartmann et al. 2013). In those regions of Africa for which data are available, most
have also recorded an increase in the incidence of extreme temperatures as well as
longer heat waves (Seneviratne et al. 2012).
Historic variability can provide useful context for understanding climate change.
Climate variability can be thought of as a bell curve, with weather in any given year
most likely to cluster around the average (the top of the bell) and extremes of
temperature or precipitation occurring less often (the flatter parts of the curve).
Climate change can shift both the mean and the overall shape of the bell curve, often
flattening it out because of the rising frequency of extremes (Kirtman et al. 2013).
E. Girvetz et al.
work on a small-scale or subsistence level, with their opportunities limited by persistent
poverty, lack of access to infrastructure and information, and challenges related to policy
and governance. Climate change is expected to have major negative impacts on the
livelihoods and food security of such farmers. Governments and development professionals must confront the challenge of helping them to adapt (Shackleton et al. 2015).
This paper offers a general overview of historical climate change in Africa, and
in particular how it has already led to rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. It then examines the models that provide projections—with varying levels of
certainty—of what climate change will mean for farmers across eastern and southern Africa in the coming decades (ESA).
The paper also highlights the strengths and limitations of the available information
regarding the effects of climate change. Adapting to climate change requires better projections of the specific climate hazards that will be faced at the national, regional and local
levels (Challinor et al. 2007; Muller et al. 2011). In particular, implementation of climatesmart agriculture (CSA) projects has been constrained by the lack of information on the
best responses in specific regions. There are serious gaps in observed historical weather
data at the local level across the continent, and the continuing collection of such data still
lags far behind where it should be. Strengthening the database of observed weather is critical to understanding the changes that have occurred already, to project future changes and
their impacts, and to plan appropriately to address them. Once collected and analyzed,
climate data must be communicated in ways that help development practitioners and
decision- makers understand climate impacts in specific places. Good tools are available,
but practitioners at the local level must have the access and training to use them.
Much work remains to be done. However, given that the impacts of climate
change are already being felt on the ground, it is imperative that adaptation begins
immediately. Even in places where projections are uncertain, steps can be taken
right now to implement CSA practices and make farmers more resilient in the face
of climate change.
2.2 Past and Present: Evidence Africa’s Climate Has Already
Changed
There is clear evidence that average temperatures have become warmer across the
globe. In Africa these changes became apparent starting in about 1975, and since
then temperatures have increased at a rate of about 0.03 °C per year (NOAA 2018;
Hartmann et al. 2013). In those regions of Africa for which data are available, most
have also recorded an increase in the incidence of extreme temperatures as well as
longer heat waves (Seneviratne et al. 2012).
Historic variability can provide useful context for understanding climate change.
Climate variability can be thought of as a bell curve, with weather in any given year
most likely to cluster around the average (the top of the bell) and extremes of
temperature or precipitation occurring less often (the flatter parts of the curve).
Climate change can shift both the mean and the overall shape of the bell curve, often
flattening it out because of the rising frequency of extremes (Kirtman et al. 2013).
E. Girvetz et al.