9
that are available for promoting CSA. While the adoption of practices and technologies may be stimulated through interventions that address very specific resource
constraints (through credit, insurances, and input provisions, for example), scaling
CSA requires more systematic investments (for example, blended mechanisms) that
allow for increases in farm income while minimising risks.
1.3 Implications for Development
This book highlights a wide cross-section of effort to design and disseminate agricultural technologies and approaches that help farmers better cope with climate
risks. During a review of the chapters, however, several common gaps were identified that may merit attention in future research.
The main climate risk considered in these pages is drought—an obvious choice,
given the long history of efforts to identify technologies suitable for droughtaffected regions of Africa. Drought is already endemic in large parts of eastern and
southern Africa. A principal concern is that these areas will expand as the climate
continues to change. However, there is relatively little discussion about the variation
in drought across the region and how this is expected to alter over time. This is
based on the assumption that current drought risks are indicative of weather patterns
under a changing climate. Yet it is not obvious that current drought risks will simply
expand spatially. Over the next generation or two, the types of drought may change
(cf. Chavez et al. 2015). A larger proportion of farmers may find that the rains start
late or end earlier, or that the seasons simply shorten. In some areas, mid-season dry
spells affecting flowering may become more common. This points to a need to better characterise how drought risks are likely to change over time and, more explicitly, account for this in technology design.
While rising average temperatures are linked with the likely spread of drought,
the chapters in this book suggest that comparatively little work has been completed
on solutions to these temperature changes. This is surprising given the irrefutable
evidence that temperatures are rising in line with the growth of GHGs, and may be
rising faster in sub-Saharan Africa than in other parts of the world. Higher average
temperatures are widely expected to shift the incidence of pests and diseases affecting crop and livestock production (Bett et al. 2017). However, models tracking the
speed and incidence of this change remain rudimentary. Observers note that rising
temperatures may also affect plant flowering and fruit production, as well as the
timing and severity of drought. But the thresholds for these changes do not seem to
be well defined in applied technology development programmes. If scientists remain
uncertain about the levels, spatial distribution and timing of changing temperatures,
designing technology suitable for the diverse farming systems of eastern and southern Africa will continue to be challenging.
Similarly, solutions to the endemic and possibly worsening climate risk of flooding are almost totally absent in this collection of studies. This includes the need to
1 An Introduction to the Climate-Smart Agriculture Papers
that are available for promoting CSA. While the adoption of practices and technologies may be stimulated through interventions that address very specific resource
constraints (through credit, insurances, and input provisions, for example), scaling
CSA requires more systematic investments (for example, blended mechanisms) that
allow for increases in farm income while minimising risks.
1.3 Implications for Development
This book highlights a wide cross-section of effort to design and disseminate agricultural technologies and approaches that help farmers better cope with climate
risks. During a review of the chapters, however, several common gaps were identified that may merit attention in future research.
The main climate risk considered in these pages is drought—an obvious choice,
given the long history of efforts to identify technologies suitable for droughtaffected regions of Africa. Drought is already endemic in large parts of eastern and
southern Africa. A principal concern is that these areas will expand as the climate
continues to change. However, there is relatively little discussion about the variation
in drought across the region and how this is expected to alter over time. This is
based on the assumption that current drought risks are indicative of weather patterns
under a changing climate. Yet it is not obvious that current drought risks will simply
expand spatially. Over the next generation or two, the types of drought may change
(cf. Chavez et al. 2015). A larger proportion of farmers may find that the rains start
late or end earlier, or that the seasons simply shorten. In some areas, mid-season dry
spells affecting flowering may become more common. This points to a need to better characterise how drought risks are likely to change over time and, more explicitly, account for this in technology design.
While rising average temperatures are linked with the likely spread of drought,
the chapters in this book suggest that comparatively little work has been completed
on solutions to these temperature changes. This is surprising given the irrefutable
evidence that temperatures are rising in line with the growth of GHGs, and may be
rising faster in sub-Saharan Africa than in other parts of the world. Higher average
temperatures are widely expected to shift the incidence of pests and diseases affecting crop and livestock production (Bett et al. 2017). However, models tracking the
speed and incidence of this change remain rudimentary. Observers note that rising
temperatures may also affect plant flowering and fruit production, as well as the
timing and severity of drought. But the thresholds for these changes do not seem to
be well defined in applied technology development programmes. If scientists remain
uncertain about the levels, spatial distribution and timing of changing temperatures,
designing technology suitable for the diverse farming systems of eastern and southern Africa will continue to be challenging.
Similarly, solutions to the endemic and possibly worsening climate risk of flooding are almost totally absent in this collection of studies. This includes the need to
1 An Introduction to the Climate-Smart Agriculture Papers