135
Figure 3.10 shows our projected global emissions of CO 2 -eq (grey) for a scenario
we call Attain and Improve, Unconditional (AI
UNC
). For AI
UNC
, we again consider
emissions will follow the specifications of all of the unconditional INDCs that have
been submitted to UNFCCC. For this scenario, we assume carbon intensity will
continue to improve, after 2030 (or whatever end year was used in the INDC), out
to either 2060 or until CO 2 -eq from a specific nation falls to 50 % of that nation’s
value in 2030. The projected value of CO 2 -eq is in extremely close agreement with
that of PBL in 2030, and the JRC projection that extends to 2050. The AI
UNC
global
emissions approach those of RCP 4.5 in 2060, but lie above RCP 4.5 for most population projections. Note the strong convergence of per-capita emissions from the
US, China, India, and Annex I* in 2060 for AI
UNC
, towards the value of 7.5 t CO 2 -eq
ppy (Fig. 3.10c). This convergence is in contrast to per-capita emissions from BAU,
which exceed this value for the US, China, and Annex I* (Fig. 3.8c).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JRC BAU
JRC INDCs
JRC 2 °C Path
PBL
Unc. INDCs
Global Emission
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
a
INDC Targets: Attain & Improve (Unconditional)
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Observation
Our Projection
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per−Capita Emission
(t CO
2
−eq ppy)
c
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emission by Group
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
b
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
Fig. 3.10 Future GHG projections, Paris Unconditional INDCs, Attain and Improve. Same as Fig.
3.9, except we assume all of the unconditional INDCs are followed out to the time of the commitment and, from that point onward, CO 2 -eq emissions continue to decline at the rate that had been
needed for each nation to have achieved its commitment. The data point for PBL Netherlands is the
same as that used for Fig. 3.8. See Methods for further information
3.3 Future Emissions
Figure 3.10 shows our projected global emissions of CO 2 -eq (grey) for a scenario
we call Attain and Improve, Unconditional (AI
UNC
). For AI
UNC
, we again consider
emissions will follow the specifications of all of the unconditional INDCs that have
been submitted to UNFCCC. For this scenario, we assume carbon intensity will
continue to improve, after 2030 (or whatever end year was used in the INDC), out
to either 2060 or until CO 2 -eq from a specific nation falls to 50 % of that nation’s
value in 2030. The projected value of CO 2 -eq is in extremely close agreement with
that of PBL in 2030, and the JRC projection that extends to 2050. The AI
UNC
global
emissions approach those of RCP 4.5 in 2060, but lie above RCP 4.5 for most population projections. Note the strong convergence of per-capita emissions from the
US, China, India, and Annex I* in 2060 for AI
UNC
, towards the value of 7.5 t CO 2 -eq
ppy (Fig. 3.10c). This convergence is in contrast to per-capita emissions from BAU,
which exceed this value for the US, China, and Annex I* (Fig. 3.8c).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JRC BAU
JRC INDCs
JRC 2 °C Path
PBL
Unc. INDCs
Global Emission
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
a
INDC Targets: Attain & Improve (Unconditional)
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Observation
Our Projection
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per−Capita Emission
(t CO
2
−eq ppy)
c
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emission by Group
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
b
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
Fig. 3.10 Future GHG projections, Paris Unconditional INDCs, Attain and Improve. Same as Fig.
3.9, except we assume all of the unconditional INDCs are followed out to the time of the commitment and, from that point onward, CO 2 -eq emissions continue to decline at the rate that had been
needed for each nation to have achieved its commitment. The data point for PBL Netherlands is the
same as that used for Fig. 3.8. See Methods for further information
3.3 Future Emissions