133
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JRC BAU
JRC INDCs
JRC 2 °C Path
PBL
BAU
Global Emission
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
a
Business As Usual
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Observation
Our Projection
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per−Capita Emission
(t CO
2
−eq ppy)
c
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emission by Group
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
b
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
Fig. 3.8 Future GHG projections, Business as Usual (BAU). (a) Our projection of global emission
of CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O, expressed as CO 2 -eq, for a BAU approach; shaded region represents uncertainty based on various population pathways (grey). Global emissions of CO 2
FF +
CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, as indicated. Four projections of global emissions
for the Kyoto basket of GHGs from JRC (Kitous and Keramidas 2015) are shown: BAU, their
analysis of the INDCs, and their estimate of the pathway needed to achieve the Paris upper limit of
2 °C warming. The INDC projections of JRC are for unconditional only (upper orange curve) and
unconditional plus conditional (lower orange curve). Finally, the global GHG emission BAU projection for 2030 from PBL (Admiraal et al. 2015) is shown. (b) Our projection of contributions to
CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from the US, China, India, Annex I*, and non-Annex I*, all for
BAU. (c) Per-capita emission of CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from the five groups, based on our
projections in panel (b). See Methods for further information
sions follow the submitted INDC, for the 117 nations that have submitted unconditional INDCs to UNFCCC at the time of writing, that include specific quantifiable
reductions in GHG emissions. For a few nations, which shall remain unnamed, our
best interpretation of their INDC leads to emissions that are larger than we have
forecast under BAU. In these instances, the INDC-based forecast is used. Most of the
3.3 Future Emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JRC BAU
JRC INDCs
JRC 2 °C Path
PBL
BAU
Global Emission
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
a
Business As Usual
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Observation
Our Projection
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per−Capita Emission
(t CO
2
−eq ppy)
c
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emission by Group
(Gt CO
2
−eq)
b
US
China
India
Annex I*
Non−Annex I*
Fig. 3.8 Future GHG projections, Business as Usual (BAU). (a) Our projection of global emission
of CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O, expressed as CO 2 -eq, for a BAU approach; shaded region represents uncertainty based on various population pathways (grey). Global emissions of CO 2
FF +
CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, as indicated. Four projections of global emissions
for the Kyoto basket of GHGs from JRC (Kitous and Keramidas 2015) are shown: BAU, their
analysis of the INDCs, and their estimate of the pathway needed to achieve the Paris upper limit of
2 °C warming. The INDC projections of JRC are for unconditional only (upper orange curve) and
unconditional plus conditional (lower orange curve). Finally, the global GHG emission BAU projection for 2030 from PBL (Admiraal et al. 2015) is shown. (b) Our projection of contributions to
CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from the US, China, India, Annex I*, and non-Annex I*, all for
BAU. (c) Per-capita emission of CO 2
FF + CO 2
LUC + CH 4 + N 2 O from the five groups, based on our
projections in panel (b). See Methods for further information
sions follow the submitted INDC, for the 117 nations that have submitted unconditional INDCs to UNFCCC at the time of writing, that include specific quantifiable
reductions in GHG emissions. For a few nations, which shall remain unnamed, our
best interpretation of their INDC leads to emissions that are larger than we have
forecast under BAU. In these instances, the INDC-based forecast is used. Most of the
3.3 Future Emissions