A Bright Look at the Future of Railways
Transportation in the 21st century involves multiple challenges. Transports will have
to deal with the increasing needs of a growing and wealthier human population, and
the socioeconomic requirements to deliver natural resources, manufactured goods,
and transport people. The emergence of new strong economies, and the expectation
that economic growth will raise the living standards of vast populations, will be surely
accompanied by an increase in transportation infrastructures, given the well-known
relationship between transportation activity and Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) (Profillidis 2014). How societies will accommodate economic development
with the biophysical constrains imposed by the environment is a major challenge, but
one where railways will certainly play an important role (Smith 1998, 2003).
One of the reasons to expect a steady development of railways is related to their
cost-effectiveness over other means of transportation, particularly for the so-called
intermediate range distances (Profillidis 2014). Therefore, it is expected that railways will develop to fill in the niche that lay somewhere in-between the local door
to door transportation and, in the other extreme, the long distance transportation of
passengers or freight that is better accomplished through aviation or marine
transportation. The exact level at which railways will fill in such niche, however,
will depend on the characteristics of the region where they operate: its geography,
the size of its population and how the population is distributed. Nevertheless, it is
likely that in many countries new railway lines will be built and others will be
improved, to support, for instance, the commuting of people between the suburbia
and city centres, to transport passengers among cities laying a few hundred kilometres apart, and to transport freight among harbours and big cities.
Another reason to expect the expansion of railways is related to its environmental
benefits relatively to other means of transportation, which is well illustrated by the role
it can play in addressing global warming. For instance, Dulac (2013) analysed
infrastructure requirements under different climate change scenarios, concluding that
an increase in 335,000 railway track kilometres would be needed to accommodate the
projected transportation needs until 2050, while keeping the increase in average
global atmospheric temperatures under 4 °C. Under a more strict policy scenario of a
2 °C increase in temperatures, the railway network would have to expand by
approximately 535,000 track kilometres, reflecting the higher efficiency of railway
over road transportation (Dulac 2013). Once again, this will certainly lead to a steady
development of railway networks, thereby calling for the collaboration of railway
ecologists to mitigate impacts and to foster the environmental added value of railways.
Emerging Trends and Challenges
While we expect a major development in railway networks in the next decades,
technological developments may considerably affect their characteristics, as well as
the environmental problems that will be raised. For instance, in regions with high
312
R. Barrientos et al.
Transportation in the 21st century involves multiple challenges. Transports will have
to deal with the increasing needs of a growing and wealthier human population, and
the socioeconomic requirements to deliver natural resources, manufactured goods,
and transport people. The emergence of new strong economies, and the expectation
that economic growth will raise the living standards of vast populations, will be surely
accompanied by an increase in transportation infrastructures, given the well-known
relationship between transportation activity and Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) (Profillidis 2014). How societies will accommodate economic development
with the biophysical constrains imposed by the environment is a major challenge, but
one where railways will certainly play an important role (Smith 1998, 2003).
One of the reasons to expect a steady development of railways is related to their
cost-effectiveness over other means of transportation, particularly for the so-called
intermediate range distances (Profillidis 2014). Therefore, it is expected that railways will develop to fill in the niche that lay somewhere in-between the local door
to door transportation and, in the other extreme, the long distance transportation of
passengers or freight that is better accomplished through aviation or marine
transportation. The exact level at which railways will fill in such niche, however,
will depend on the characteristics of the region where they operate: its geography,
the size of its population and how the population is distributed. Nevertheless, it is
likely that in many countries new railway lines will be built and others will be
improved, to support, for instance, the commuting of people between the suburbia
and city centres, to transport passengers among cities laying a few hundred kilometres apart, and to transport freight among harbours and big cities.
Another reason to expect the expansion of railways is related to its environmental
benefits relatively to other means of transportation, which is well illustrated by the role
it can play in addressing global warming. For instance, Dulac (2013) analysed
infrastructure requirements under different climate change scenarios, concluding that
an increase in 335,000 railway track kilometres would be needed to accommodate the
projected transportation needs until 2050, while keeping the increase in average
global atmospheric temperatures under 4 °C. Under a more strict policy scenario of a
2 °C increase in temperatures, the railway network would have to expand by
approximately 535,000 track kilometres, reflecting the higher efficiency of railway
over road transportation (Dulac 2013). Once again, this will certainly lead to a steady
development of railway networks, thereby calling for the collaboration of railway
ecologists to mitigate impacts and to foster the environmental added value of railways.
Emerging Trends and Challenges
While we expect a major development in railway networks in the next decades,
technological developments may considerably affect their characteristics, as well as
the environmental problems that will be raised. For instance, in regions with high
312
R. Barrientos et al.