momentum. Also, renewable technologies are at a completely different stage of
availability and pricing, climate change impacts have become tangibly noticeable
and increasing conflicts in areas with big fossil fuel reserves have added impetus to
the feeling that turning away from unsustainable forms of energy is a good idea.
So it takes time, a certain degree of irritation, a critical mass of alternatives and
their supporters to bring radical visions to life. The multi-phase concept captures
this process well. Unless the system dynamics show a certain degree of friction or
an existing willingness to change, experiments that propose to change too much in
too short periods of time will cause rejection or resistance.
This pattern matches Thomas Kuhn’s account of the development of scientific
advancements for which he coined the term ‘paradigm shift.’ His 1962 book, The
Structure of Scientific Revolutions, describes changes in patterns of thinking and
basic assumptions (epistemology and ontology) behind scientific analysis. To this
end, he demonstrated the parallel existence of different paradigms to be the normal
state of affairs. These determine which questions will be asked when assessing a
certain issue, how they will be asked, what will be required to answer them and how
the results will be interpreted. Kuhn showed that there is usually one paradigm that
comes to predominate and does not evolve steadily by adding insights but is rather
overturned in an intellectual battle whose phases resemble those of the multi-phase
pattern. Dominant ideas and research premises tend not to cede gradually and
smoothly but instead to be amended until critique simply becomes too strong to
justify more exceptions to the rules. After such tipping points, the situation is
fundamentally altered, even if no consistent or coherent alternative explanations
and solutions are yet in place to fill the emerging gap and search processes.
Unsurprisingly, the navigation or transition phase in shifting paradigms as well as
governance solutions is marked by chaos, politicization, unease and power-ridden
struggles. The Global Scenario Group called them ‘branch points’ and stressed the
role of science and intellectuals in providing narratives that can galvanize enough
support to become institutionalized. Thus, change agents are well advised to be
mindful that the diverse changes necessary to achieve a radically different scenario
will emerge from multiple sources, and might feel impossible for a long time, before a
window of opportunity opens and much change happens in a short period.
At the same time, one should not assume that radical changes will emerge from
less-than-radical intentionality. Reflecting on Meadow’s list of leverage points and
Kuhn’s account of paradigm shifts, we see that only by checking which key
assumptions inform which change initiatives can we get a better grip on the
transformational potential they carry.
From this perspective, paradigms or mind-sets play two important roles in
transformations that differ with the 4 phases (Fig. 2.2): in the pre-development and
acceleration phase the role of new paradigms and ideas lies in creating or increasing
irritations in the system by deploying the alternative meanings and knowledges
around which pioneers develop experiments. Here the role is to create frictions in
common sense and accepted justifications to create openness to change. It is about
delegitimizing the status quo explanations and solutions, about defining no-go
answers or views when discussing decisions on the way forward.
2.2 Summary: Paradigm Shifts and Large System Change …
49
availability and pricing, climate change impacts have become tangibly noticeable
and increasing conflicts in areas with big fossil fuel reserves have added impetus to
the feeling that turning away from unsustainable forms of energy is a good idea.
So it takes time, a certain degree of irritation, a critical mass of alternatives and
their supporters to bring radical visions to life. The multi-phase concept captures
this process well. Unless the system dynamics show a certain degree of friction or
an existing willingness to change, experiments that propose to change too much in
too short periods of time will cause rejection or resistance.
This pattern matches Thomas Kuhn’s account of the development of scientific
advancements for which he coined the term ‘paradigm shift.’ His 1962 book, The
Structure of Scientific Revolutions, describes changes in patterns of thinking and
basic assumptions (epistemology and ontology) behind scientific analysis. To this
end, he demonstrated the parallel existence of different paradigms to be the normal
state of affairs. These determine which questions will be asked when assessing a
certain issue, how they will be asked, what will be required to answer them and how
the results will be interpreted. Kuhn showed that there is usually one paradigm that
comes to predominate and does not evolve steadily by adding insights but is rather
overturned in an intellectual battle whose phases resemble those of the multi-phase
pattern. Dominant ideas and research premises tend not to cede gradually and
smoothly but instead to be amended until critique simply becomes too strong to
justify more exceptions to the rules. After such tipping points, the situation is
fundamentally altered, even if no consistent or coherent alternative explanations
and solutions are yet in place to fill the emerging gap and search processes.
Unsurprisingly, the navigation or transition phase in shifting paradigms as well as
governance solutions is marked by chaos, politicization, unease and power-ridden
struggles. The Global Scenario Group called them ‘branch points’ and stressed the
role of science and intellectuals in providing narratives that can galvanize enough
support to become institutionalized. Thus, change agents are well advised to be
mindful that the diverse changes necessary to achieve a radically different scenario
will emerge from multiple sources, and might feel impossible for a long time, before a
window of opportunity opens and much change happens in a short period.
At the same time, one should not assume that radical changes will emerge from
less-than-radical intentionality. Reflecting on Meadow’s list of leverage points and
Kuhn’s account of paradigm shifts, we see that only by checking which key
assumptions inform which change initiatives can we get a better grip on the
transformational potential they carry.
From this perspective, paradigms or mind-sets play two important roles in
transformations that differ with the 4 phases (Fig. 2.2): in the pre-development and
acceleration phase the role of new paradigms and ideas lies in creating or increasing
irritations in the system by deploying the alternative meanings and knowledges
around which pioneers develop experiments. Here the role is to create frictions in
common sense and accepted justifications to create openness to change. It is about
delegitimizing the status quo explanations and solutions, about defining no-go
answers or views when discussing decisions on the way forward.
2.2 Summary: Paradigm Shifts and Large System Change …
49