• For the transformationists, the authors refer to William Morris, E. F. Schumacher
and Mahatma Gandhi as well as John Stuart Mill. All of these thinkers question
whether humans really need to be selfish, endlessly accumulating competitors.
The first three formulate ideas about a decentralized variety of small and beautiful
communities in self-determination (the eco-communalism scenario), while Mill
sticks with larger units but envisions a post-industrialist and post-scarcity
development model (a Great Transition or paradigm shift scenario). All three
aim for human development rather than material acquisition once subsistence
needs are met (Raskin et al. 2002: 17).
The main message of the Great Transition report thus lies in assessing the
combination of worldviews and values in order to understand differences in ideas,
imaginaries and convictions about the best way forward. The Global Scenario
Group labeled these ‘soft’ aspects of values and needs, knowledge and understanding, power structures and culture as the “ultimate drivers” of transitions. The
more readily observable trends in politics, economics, technology and governance
are by contrast mere “proximate drivers” (Raskin et al. 2002: 50).
Most of the time, as the concept of futures literacy cited in the introduction
indicates, humans operate without much awareness of their ultimate drivers. It is at
the moment of conscious reflexivity that unstated ideas and assumptions about the
world—possibly flawed—are revealed and contested. Here we find another reason
why transformation researchers herald the moments of crisis or increasing irritation
as moments of potential. They are not dismissive of the terrible consequences that
potential runaway effects might have when feedback loops turn trends into
uncontrollable developments, but, as the Global Scenario Group points out and the
s-curve in Fig. 2.2 illustrates, they are instead ‘branch points’ where conscious
human action can have very meaningful influences on the future of the planetary
system.
While many transformation researchers discuss the role of crises in structural
changes, few make such an explicit link to the ideas to which humans will revert
when searching for strategies to deal with them. One rather unexpected ally is
Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, one of the leading thinkers of the mainstream
economic paradigm. His theory of monetarism was instrumental in transforming the
governance structures of many countries and he is clear about the role it played as a
political tool: “Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When
that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying
around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing
policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes
the politically inevitable” (Friedman 2002: xiv).
Karl Polanyi was another thinker who was very clear about this interplay. Since I
believe that Friedman’s ideas are more of a problem for sustainable development
than a solution, this last subchapter is a quick excursion into the thinking of
Polanyi, who could also be called the father of the idea of a Great Transformation:
his 1944 book carried this title and he is often referred to in contemporary transition
36
2 What Political Economy Adds to Transformation Research
and Mahatma Gandhi as well as John Stuart Mill. All of these thinkers question
whether humans really need to be selfish, endlessly accumulating competitors.
The first three formulate ideas about a decentralized variety of small and beautiful
communities in self-determination (the eco-communalism scenario), while Mill
sticks with larger units but envisions a post-industrialist and post-scarcity
development model (a Great Transition or paradigm shift scenario). All three
aim for human development rather than material acquisition once subsistence
needs are met (Raskin et al. 2002: 17).
The main message of the Great Transition report thus lies in assessing the
combination of worldviews and values in order to understand differences in ideas,
imaginaries and convictions about the best way forward. The Global Scenario
Group labeled these ‘soft’ aspects of values and needs, knowledge and understanding, power structures and culture as the “ultimate drivers” of transitions. The
more readily observable trends in politics, economics, technology and governance
are by contrast mere “proximate drivers” (Raskin et al. 2002: 50).
Most of the time, as the concept of futures literacy cited in the introduction
indicates, humans operate without much awareness of their ultimate drivers. It is at
the moment of conscious reflexivity that unstated ideas and assumptions about the
world—possibly flawed—are revealed and contested. Here we find another reason
why transformation researchers herald the moments of crisis or increasing irritation
as moments of potential. They are not dismissive of the terrible consequences that
potential runaway effects might have when feedback loops turn trends into
uncontrollable developments, but, as the Global Scenario Group points out and the
s-curve in Fig. 2.2 illustrates, they are instead ‘branch points’ where conscious
human action can have very meaningful influences on the future of the planetary
system.
While many transformation researchers discuss the role of crises in structural
changes, few make such an explicit link to the ideas to which humans will revert
when searching for strategies to deal with them. One rather unexpected ally is
Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, one of the leading thinkers of the mainstream
economic paradigm. His theory of monetarism was instrumental in transforming the
governance structures of many countries and he is clear about the role it played as a
political tool: “Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When
that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying
around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing
policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes
the politically inevitable” (Friedman 2002: xiv).
Karl Polanyi was another thinker who was very clear about this interplay. Since I
believe that Friedman’s ideas are more of a problem for sustainable development
than a solution, this last subchapter is a quick excursion into the thinking of
Polanyi, who could also be called the father of the idea of a Great Transformation:
his 1944 book carried this title and he is often referred to in contemporary transition
36
2 What Political Economy Adds to Transformation Research