339
slowly being replaced by physics-based powertrain models (Koffl er and RohdeBrandenburger 2010 ). It turns out, for example, that the regenerative braking and
the higher effi ciency of advanced powertrains signifi cantly reduce the impact of
vehicle mass reduction on fuel economy. This challenges the gospel that advanced
powertrains require lightweight materials. Other sources of uncertainty are the
assumed total mileage of the vehicle and, as always, the inventory data of the
involved processes, such as material and fuel production.
By far the most contentious issue, however, is the question of how recycled content and end-of-life recycling impacts the net environmental benefi ts of lightweight
automotive materials (Geyer 2008 ). The controversy over how to account for material recycling is generic to LCA and not specifi c to vehicle mass reduction. There is
a plethora of literature explaining, comparing, and reviewing the various existing
recycling methodologies. In the case of lightweight automotive materials, changing
recycling methodology can change the rank-ordering of the results, which is highly
unsatisfactory. Consequential system expansion is the only way to determine the
actual effects of material recycling. Environmental studies of lightweight materials,
just like those of biofuels, therefore call into question the usefulness of attributional
LCA for public policy making. Attempts at consequential LCA, on the other hand,
highlight the large uncertainties intrinsic to consequential analysis. Car manufacturers all know and use LCA and are well aware of its ambiguities in particular with
regard to recycling. Policy makers are currently reluctant to change automotive
emission regulations from tailpipe to life cycle, regardless of the fact that the latter
perspective is superior in principle.
As a result, all public policy on automotive GHG emissions focuses of fuel economy or tailpipe CO 2 (Miller and Façanha 2014 ). None use a full life cycle perspective; in particular vehicle production impacts are ignored by all of them. Many car
manufacturers therefore see lightweight materials as an important way to meet these
standards. So far, Ford made the boldest move and decided to make the body structure of the 2015 model of its most successful vehicle, the F150 pickup truck, entirely
aluminum. Ford states that this enabled mass reductions of up to 700 pounds (318
kg) and fuel economy improvements of up to 20 % relative to 2014 model. While it
is clear that such a dramatic change to America’s best-selling vehicle is an enormous economic gamble, it is unclear what the net climate change impacts of this
move are. Rather than trying to predict the consequences of such a change, say
through consequential LCA, we are now running the experiment. Luckily, this
experiment is bound to have a less dramatic outcome than the one of adding lead to
gasoline.
5 Conclusions
The use of automobiles experienced phenomenal growth ever since cars started
being mass-produced just over 100 years ago. Today, well over one billion vehicles
are in use worldwide (OICA 2015 ). In 2013 alone, over 65 million cars and almost
18 The Industrial Ecology of the Automobile
slowly being replaced by physics-based powertrain models (Koffl er and RohdeBrandenburger 2010 ). It turns out, for example, that the regenerative braking and
the higher effi ciency of advanced powertrains signifi cantly reduce the impact of
vehicle mass reduction on fuel economy. This challenges the gospel that advanced
powertrains require lightweight materials. Other sources of uncertainty are the
assumed total mileage of the vehicle and, as always, the inventory data of the
involved processes, such as material and fuel production.
By far the most contentious issue, however, is the question of how recycled content and end-of-life recycling impacts the net environmental benefi ts of lightweight
automotive materials (Geyer 2008 ). The controversy over how to account for material recycling is generic to LCA and not specifi c to vehicle mass reduction. There is
a plethora of literature explaining, comparing, and reviewing the various existing
recycling methodologies. In the case of lightweight automotive materials, changing
recycling methodology can change the rank-ordering of the results, which is highly
unsatisfactory. Consequential system expansion is the only way to determine the
actual effects of material recycling. Environmental studies of lightweight materials,
just like those of biofuels, therefore call into question the usefulness of attributional
LCA for public policy making. Attempts at consequential LCA, on the other hand,
highlight the large uncertainties intrinsic to consequential analysis. Car manufacturers all know and use LCA and are well aware of its ambiguities in particular with
regard to recycling. Policy makers are currently reluctant to change automotive
emission regulations from tailpipe to life cycle, regardless of the fact that the latter
perspective is superior in principle.
As a result, all public policy on automotive GHG emissions focuses of fuel economy or tailpipe CO 2 (Miller and Façanha 2014 ). None use a full life cycle perspective; in particular vehicle production impacts are ignored by all of them. Many car
manufacturers therefore see lightweight materials as an important way to meet these
standards. So far, Ford made the boldest move and decided to make the body structure of the 2015 model of its most successful vehicle, the F150 pickup truck, entirely
aluminum. Ford states that this enabled mass reductions of up to 700 pounds (318
kg) and fuel economy improvements of up to 20 % relative to 2014 model. While it
is clear that such a dramatic change to America’s best-selling vehicle is an enormous economic gamble, it is unclear what the net climate change impacts of this
move are. Rather than trying to predict the consequences of such a change, say
through consequential LCA, we are now running the experiment. Luckily, this
experiment is bound to have a less dramatic outcome than the one of adding lead to
gasoline.
5 Conclusions
The use of automobiles experienced phenomenal growth ever since cars started
being mass-produced just over 100 years ago. Today, well over one billion vehicles
are in use worldwide (OICA 2015 ). In 2013 alone, over 65 million cars and almost
18 The Industrial Ecology of the Automobile