230
The potential of several Asian countries to expand biofuel production to reach
these targets has been analyzed by USAID (2009) which analyzed different possible
scenarios for expanding their biofuel production, taking into account requirements
for land and water. The study considered the options of shifting some land use from
forest and food crop uses, increasing crop yields through the use of new technologies, use of crop residues, and use of marginal lands. The study considered both
first-generation feedstocks, whose production increase may need to focus on underutilized land, and second-generation biofuel technologies using waste and residues
from existing agricultural lands. Two scenarios considering crop mix, land use, and
increasing yields were provided. The first scenario assumed expanding production
of six crops using underutilized land, taking into account each country’s specific
resources. The second scenario assumed the use of five crops (maize, rice, sorghum,
sugarcane, and wheat) to produce feedstock for second-generation bioethanol.
Then, the scenarios were considered with each country’s strategy for future biofuel
production for approximately the next 10 years. The results of this study are summarized in Tables 14.3 and 14.4 above.
The USAID report optimistically concluded that for ethanol, around the year
2020, four of the six case study countries can probably meet their targets; one is
borderline, and the other will fall somewhat short. However, for biodiesel, meeting
the targets may be much more difficult, and only two of the seven countries are
expected to do so. Moreover, the main reason why Malaysia and the Philippines are
expected to meet their biodiesel production targets is because the targets are low.
The conditions necessary to reach the optimistic conclusion in the case of ethanol can be clearly seen from USAID’s analysis. In all six case study countries, current production is less than the target, in some cases considerably less. Reaching the
targets could be accomplished by significant expanded use of waste or residues and
would not necessarily require new land.
Although the USAID study was able to identify some potential new land that
could be converted to produce ethanol in each case study country except for the
Philippines, the amount of land was not large. Presumably, this was the amount of
land that USAID believed could be diverted without significant impact on food
production or forests. Any significant increase in the amount of land used for biofuel
feedstock production would cause concerns about land being converted from food
production or forests.
In the case of biodiesel, the current production levels of the countries which are
unable to meet their targets are generally significantly below the targets. To be sure,
the USAID study did not consider the potential for waste to biodiesel or crop residues, so there could be some future potential for this. Nevertheless, the USAID
study also did not identify significant new land that might be available for biodiesel
production, at least not enough to enable these countries to meet their targets. The
case of Indonesia is particularly important, since it was initially hoped that it could
be a major exporter of biodiesel. In Indonesia, the main existing crop suitable for
biodiesel is palm oil, for which Indonesia is one of the world’s largest producers.
However, palm oil is the main source of cooking oil in Indonesia, so its price and
availability are very politically sensitive. Palm oil is also a major ingredient in many
M. Elder and S. Hayashi
The potential of several Asian countries to expand biofuel production to reach
these targets has been analyzed by USAID (2009) which analyzed different possible
scenarios for expanding their biofuel production, taking into account requirements
for land and water. The study considered the options of shifting some land use from
forest and food crop uses, increasing crop yields through the use of new technologies, use of crop residues, and use of marginal lands. The study considered both
first-generation feedstocks, whose production increase may need to focus on underutilized land, and second-generation biofuel technologies using waste and residues
from existing agricultural lands. Two scenarios considering crop mix, land use, and
increasing yields were provided. The first scenario assumed expanding production
of six crops using underutilized land, taking into account each country’s specific
resources. The second scenario assumed the use of five crops (maize, rice, sorghum,
sugarcane, and wheat) to produce feedstock for second-generation bioethanol.
Then, the scenarios were considered with each country’s strategy for future biofuel
production for approximately the next 10 years. The results of this study are summarized in Tables 14.3 and 14.4 above.
The USAID report optimistically concluded that for ethanol, around the year
2020, four of the six case study countries can probably meet their targets; one is
borderline, and the other will fall somewhat short. However, for biodiesel, meeting
the targets may be much more difficult, and only two of the seven countries are
expected to do so. Moreover, the main reason why Malaysia and the Philippines are
expected to meet their biodiesel production targets is because the targets are low.
The conditions necessary to reach the optimistic conclusion in the case of ethanol can be clearly seen from USAID’s analysis. In all six case study countries, current production is less than the target, in some cases considerably less. Reaching the
targets could be accomplished by significant expanded use of waste or residues and
would not necessarily require new land.
Although the USAID study was able to identify some potential new land that
could be converted to produce ethanol in each case study country except for the
Philippines, the amount of land was not large. Presumably, this was the amount of
land that USAID believed could be diverted without significant impact on food
production or forests. Any significant increase in the amount of land used for biofuel
feedstock production would cause concerns about land being converted from food
production or forests.
In the case of biodiesel, the current production levels of the countries which are
unable to meet their targets are generally significantly below the targets. To be sure,
the USAID study did not consider the potential for waste to biodiesel or crop residues, so there could be some future potential for this. Nevertheless, the USAID
study also did not identify significant new land that might be available for biodiesel
production, at least not enough to enable these countries to meet their targets. The
case of Indonesia is particularly important, since it was initially hoped that it could
be a major exporter of biodiesel. In Indonesia, the main existing crop suitable for
biodiesel is palm oil, for which Indonesia is one of the world’s largest producers.
However, palm oil is the main source of cooking oil in Indonesia, so its price and
availability are very politically sensitive. Palm oil is also a major ingredient in many
M. Elder and S. Hayashi