201
but reduce PM and VOC emissions compared with low-sulfur diesel oil. In many
cases, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) achieve
greater reductions (World Bank a 2010; Arai 2009).
Land use change from biofuel use falls into two categories: impacts that are
directly caused by harvesting of biofuel crops and indirect impacts due to changes
in the harvesting of other crops which are induced by expanding of biofuel crops
harvesting. Both lead to the conversion of land that is needed for forestry or for
agriculture to increase food production. This could constrain resources even further.
While the predicted impact depends on the target that is set for biofuel use, there are
studies indicating that there will not be a major increase in land conversion because
of large food demand from China and India and relatively low production of biomass, although land conversion has increased in Africa and Central and South
America and to a lesser extent in the USA and Australia (World Bank a 2010).
Furthermore, it is thought that natural forests and grassland that are not being used
for forestry will be the main target for conversion into biofuel cropping (World
Bank a 2010).
It is reported that between 475 and 580 million hectares (Mha) of abandoned
agricultural land could be brought back into agricultural production, but not all of
these can be returned to productivity, for reasons such as water and nutrient shortages. Furthermore, some countries such as India and China prohibit the conversion
of planted forests to return them to agricultural production (World Bank a 2010).
13.1.1.2 Food Security and Biofuels
Manufacturing and use of biofuels are closely connected with food security, namely,
the stable supply of food at affordable prices, which is an issue for developing countries in particular.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates
that 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO 2010) and maintains
that food production must increase in order to accommodate future population
growth. It is estimated that crop yields per unit area will continue to increase at the
recent historic average of 1.5% annually to meet increased demand from population
growth, but meeting increased demand for feeds to accompany increased meat consumption will not be possible. This indicates that it will also be difficult to increase
the volume of biofuel crops to cope with increased demand for biofuels. While there
is a bare minimum expansion of agricultural land necessary for increased food production in response to population growth, there are many estimates regarding the
extent of land use changes that will result from changes in food demand and the
cropland expansion that will result from increased biofuel use. These estimates vary
widely due to differences in underlying assumptions and estimation methodologies
(World Bank a 2010). For example, the Gallagher Report (RFA 2008) estimates that
between 144 and 334 Mha of additional land will be needed by 2020, equivalent to
between 10% and 24% of all cropland in use in 2008.
13 Key Strategies for Policymakers
but reduce PM and VOC emissions compared with low-sulfur diesel oil. In many
cases, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) achieve
greater reductions (World Bank a 2010; Arai 2009).
Land use change from biofuel use falls into two categories: impacts that are
directly caused by harvesting of biofuel crops and indirect impacts due to changes
in the harvesting of other crops which are induced by expanding of biofuel crops
harvesting. Both lead to the conversion of land that is needed for forestry or for
agriculture to increase food production. This could constrain resources even further.
While the predicted impact depends on the target that is set for biofuel use, there are
studies indicating that there will not be a major increase in land conversion because
of large food demand from China and India and relatively low production of biomass, although land conversion has increased in Africa and Central and South
America and to a lesser extent in the USA and Australia (World Bank a 2010).
Furthermore, it is thought that natural forests and grassland that are not being used
for forestry will be the main target for conversion into biofuel cropping (World
Bank a 2010).
It is reported that between 475 and 580 million hectares (Mha) of abandoned
agricultural land could be brought back into agricultural production, but not all of
these can be returned to productivity, for reasons such as water and nutrient shortages. Furthermore, some countries such as India and China prohibit the conversion
of planted forests to return them to agricultural production (World Bank a 2010).
13.1.1.2 Food Security and Biofuels
Manufacturing and use of biofuels are closely connected with food security, namely,
the stable supply of food at affordable prices, which is an issue for developing countries in particular.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates
that 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO 2010) and maintains
that food production must increase in order to accommodate future population
growth. It is estimated that crop yields per unit area will continue to increase at the
recent historic average of 1.5% annually to meet increased demand from population
growth, but meeting increased demand for feeds to accompany increased meat consumption will not be possible. This indicates that it will also be difficult to increase
the volume of biofuel crops to cope with increased demand for biofuels. While there
is a bare minimum expansion of agricultural land necessary for increased food production in response to population growth, there are many estimates regarding the
extent of land use changes that will result from changes in food demand and the
cropland expansion that will result from increased biofuel use. These estimates vary
widely due to differences in underlying assumptions and estimation methodologies
(World Bank a 2010). For example, the Gallagher Report (RFA 2008) estimates that
between 144 and 334 Mha of additional land will be needed by 2020, equivalent to
between 10% and 24% of all cropland in use in 2008.
13 Key Strategies for Policymakers