65
percentages of change in rainfall erosivity are 26.9%, 26.4%, and 35.2% in the
2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. The aggregate average annual precipitation
and erosion activity for all climate models for all scenarios exhibit a steady growth
compared with the baseline climate.
Based on the obtained results, the following achievements are presented:
– The increasing and decreasing rates of rainfall erosivity and erosivity density
were analyzed and validated using four GCMs. Out of the four GCMs, only
IPSLCM5ALR-2.6 and RCP 8.5 exhibit a decrease in the annual rainfall and
erosivity in the 2030s and 2070s, respectively, in Central Asia.
– The spatial–temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan in 1970–2017
was investigated. No significant time trend was observed in the annual rainfall
erosivity. The long-term variations in the annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan
was estimated using past and future climatic data.
The result will facilitate in appropriately preventing erosion in areas with severe
consequences. In addition, the results of this study can help in the development of
management scenarios and enable policymakers to effectively manage the risks of
soil erosion to prioritize different regions for an adequate policy implementation.
Moreover, the results of this study may be general and reflect the type of changes
that have occurred or are expected in other arid and semi-arid areas. This study
examined erosion caused by rainfall and water. Other types of erosion, such as wind
erosion (typical in many regions in Central Asia) and erosion from freeze–thaw, are
not considered due to the lack of relevant data. More research is required to include
other important factors contributing to the future increase in soil erosion, especially
future changes in the land cover.
Recommendations
• The potential soil erosion map will help define the plots that are most vulnerable
to soil erosion.
• The scaled vision of soil erosion will allow the formation of science-based recommendations for soil conservation and help establish measures based on
advanced international experience (multiple cropping, strip cropping, mulching,
terracing, contour plowing, and other ways of soil conservation).
• Local executive bodies and authorities should implement soil conservation recommendations in situ and according to legislation.
• To prevent soil erosion on slopes, conservation measures, such as increased forestation and shrub planting, should be considered.
• The application of GIS and RS technologies allows the assessment of soil erosion. In future research, it would be helpful to focus on particular plots, which
are more prone to soil erosion, by applying data in higher resolution.
6 Conclusions and Recommendations
percentages of change in rainfall erosivity are 26.9%, 26.4%, and 35.2% in the
2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. The aggregate average annual precipitation
and erosion activity for all climate models for all scenarios exhibit a steady growth
compared with the baseline climate.
Based on the obtained results, the following achievements are presented:
– The increasing and decreasing rates of rainfall erosivity and erosivity density
were analyzed and validated using four GCMs. Out of the four GCMs, only
IPSLCM5ALR-2.6 and RCP 8.5 exhibit a decrease in the annual rainfall and
erosivity in the 2030s and 2070s, respectively, in Central Asia.
– The spatial–temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan in 1970–2017
was investigated. No significant time trend was observed in the annual rainfall
erosivity. The long-term variations in the annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan
was estimated using past and future climatic data.
The result will facilitate in appropriately preventing erosion in areas with severe
consequences. In addition, the results of this study can help in the development of
management scenarios and enable policymakers to effectively manage the risks of
soil erosion to prioritize different regions for an adequate policy implementation.
Moreover, the results of this study may be general and reflect the type of changes
that have occurred or are expected in other arid and semi-arid areas. This study
examined erosion caused by rainfall and water. Other types of erosion, such as wind
erosion (typical in many regions in Central Asia) and erosion from freeze–thaw, are
not considered due to the lack of relevant data. More research is required to include
other important factors contributing to the future increase in soil erosion, especially
future changes in the land cover.
Recommendations
• The potential soil erosion map will help define the plots that are most vulnerable
to soil erosion.
• The scaled vision of soil erosion will allow the formation of science-based recommendations for soil conservation and help establish measures based on
advanced international experience (multiple cropping, strip cropping, mulching,
terracing, contour plowing, and other ways of soil conservation).
• Local executive bodies and authorities should implement soil conservation recommendations in situ and according to legislation.
• To prevent soil erosion on slopes, conservation measures, such as increased forestation and shrub planting, should be considered.
• The application of GIS and RS technologies allows the assessment of soil erosion. In future research, it would be helpful to focus on particular plots, which
are more prone to soil erosion, by applying data in higher resolution.
6 Conclusions and Recommendations