5
1.1 Concepts of Risk
Environmentalists point to modern ghost towns like Love Canal, NY (poisoned by
toxic chemical waste), Times Beach, MO (poisoned by dioxin), and Picher, OK
(poisoned by lead and zinc mining) as examples where industry and government
indifference persisted for years before any action was taken. Similar indifference by
the O&G industry toward collecting data about the possible environmental risks of
fracking could lead to another potential disaster in the future. A lack of data is not
the same thing as a lack of evidence (Werner et al. 2015). This is often stated as
“absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Some issues may take a long time
to become apparent, such as the links between cigarette smoking and lung cancer.
The “calculation” of risk is all about probability and statistics. Probability predicts a range of outcomes, but not a specific result. However, the higher probability
outcomes are more likely than something that is a long shot. People who perform
risk assessments and contingency planning look at the full range of outcomes, but
focus on the most likely.
The “perception” of risk is a different story. Instead of statistics, it is based on
feelings, which can be manipulated. The casino operators in Las Vegas understand
this well. Although the mathematical probability of winning any single roll of the
dice or hand of cards is slanted heavily in favor of the house, the gaming industry
has persuaded the public to perceive that the risk of losing money is low. A percentage of players do indeed win, but if one tallies up the outcome of every single bet
placed in a day, the majority of the winnings go to the casino itself. Nevertheless,
the casino operators manipulate risk perceptions by enshrining the people who
do win with photographs in a casino “hall of fame” to convince everyone else that
their picture could easily be up on that wall also. This gives visitors to Las Vegas a
feeling that they have a really good chance to win big money, a term sometimes
referred to as delusional optimism. It only requires a moment of reflection to realize
that the hotels don’t pay for extravagant shows, free drinks, nice restaurants, and
discount rooms by giving away money in the casinos. Despite this logic, people
keep going there on vacation, losing a fortune, and returning with fresh optimism
the following year. If the public truly understood probability and statistics, Las
Vegas would have gone under long ago.
The misunderstanding between perceived risk and actual risk sometimes drives
actions that might be considered irrational. For example, there are people terrified
of flying who will drive to the airport without wearing a seatbelt. Given the statistics
for fatal accidents per miles traveled, the probability of an accident on the drive to
airport is far higher than the risk on a commercial flight. Yet the flight is perceived
by some as being far more dangerous based on their feelings. Everyone has their
own ideas about what is considered an acceptable risk and what is not, but basing
this on feelings rather than probability may result in skewed decisions that might
actually expose someone to much greater harm.
A number of the perceived risks of fracking have become imbedded in the public
consciousness due to the lack of data on actual risks, and the subsequent promotion
1.1 Concepts of Risk
1.1 Concepts of Risk
Environmentalists point to modern ghost towns like Love Canal, NY (poisoned by
toxic chemical waste), Times Beach, MO (poisoned by dioxin), and Picher, OK
(poisoned by lead and zinc mining) as examples where industry and government
indifference persisted for years before any action was taken. Similar indifference by
the O&G industry toward collecting data about the possible environmental risks of
fracking could lead to another potential disaster in the future. A lack of data is not
the same thing as a lack of evidence (Werner et al. 2015). This is often stated as
“absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Some issues may take a long time
to become apparent, such as the links between cigarette smoking and lung cancer.
The “calculation” of risk is all about probability and statistics. Probability predicts a range of outcomes, but not a specific result. However, the higher probability
outcomes are more likely than something that is a long shot. People who perform
risk assessments and contingency planning look at the full range of outcomes, but
focus on the most likely.
The “perception” of risk is a different story. Instead of statistics, it is based on
feelings, which can be manipulated. The casino operators in Las Vegas understand
this well. Although the mathematical probability of winning any single roll of the
dice or hand of cards is slanted heavily in favor of the house, the gaming industry
has persuaded the public to perceive that the risk of losing money is low. A percentage of players do indeed win, but if one tallies up the outcome of every single bet
placed in a day, the majority of the winnings go to the casino itself. Nevertheless,
the casino operators manipulate risk perceptions by enshrining the people who
do win with photographs in a casino “hall of fame” to convince everyone else that
their picture could easily be up on that wall also. This gives visitors to Las Vegas a
feeling that they have a really good chance to win big money, a term sometimes
referred to as delusional optimism. It only requires a moment of reflection to realize
that the hotels don’t pay for extravagant shows, free drinks, nice restaurants, and
discount rooms by giving away money in the casinos. Despite this logic, people
keep going there on vacation, losing a fortune, and returning with fresh optimism
the following year. If the public truly understood probability and statistics, Las
Vegas would have gone under long ago.
The misunderstanding between perceived risk and actual risk sometimes drives
actions that might be considered irrational. For example, there are people terrified
of flying who will drive to the airport without wearing a seatbelt. Given the statistics
for fatal accidents per miles traveled, the probability of an accident on the drive to
airport is far higher than the risk on a commercial flight. Yet the flight is perceived
by some as being far more dangerous based on their feelings. Everyone has their
own ideas about what is considered an acceptable risk and what is not, but basing
this on feelings rather than probability may result in skewed decisions that might
actually expose someone to much greater harm.
A number of the perceived risks of fracking have become imbedded in the public
consciousness due to the lack of data on actual risks, and the subsequent promotion
1.1 Concepts of Risk