173
technical journals. Any credible scientific argument that purports to show climate
change is a hoax must explain the following three points:
(1) Other than the human combustion of fossil fuels, what else can account for the
dramatic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured since 1957 at
Mauna Loa?
(2) What evidence shows that Joseph Fourier’s physics for the absorption of
infrared radiation by CO 2 in the atmosphere are not valid?
(3) What evidence shows that the Earth will react differently than it did during the
PETM as present-day GHG concentrations in the atmosphere approach those
same levels?
Humanity is running an experiment with GHG and climate change, with no clear
idea of how it might turn out. The IPCC gives a one in six chance that global temperatures will increase less than 2 °C in the next century and be lost in the natural
background. There is also a one in six chance that global temperatures may rise by
more than 9 °C and precipitate disasters like catastrophic sea level rise, intense
storms, droughts, killer heat waves and all the rest predicted by climate models
(IPCC 2018). The odds in Russian roulette are also one out of six. Do we really
want to risk playing that with the Earth?
Children are having nightmares about climate disasters. Youth is rising up and
demanding that something be done. People are marching and protesting about climate change on a regular basis. Energy and climate have become a part of national
and international political discourses, and politicians who don’t talk about it and
don’t have some kind of plan for dealing with it are criticized. Climate contrarians
are trying to stop a large and growing wave.
Humans will have to adapt to climate change, because it is too late to avoid it.
Even if all GHG emissions were stopped tomorrow, climate change is still going to
happen. Just as shutting down the engines of large ship will not bring it to a halt until
it has coasted for a considerable distance, the course for climate change has been set
by past and present human actions for an unknown amount of time into the future.
The effects on civilization are likely to be felt for centuries, possibly millennia. The
best we can do is to try reducing the magnitude of the impact by getting GHG emissions under control and stop making things worse.
There will be both physical and transitional impacts from climate change.
Physical impacts include elevated temperatures that may lead to deadly heat waves
in the tropics and long stretches of above-freezing temperatures in polar regions.
The heat will also melt sea ice, permafrost, and the polar ice caps on land areas like
Greenland and Antarctica. Meltwater from this land ice pouring into the oceans will
raise sea levels worldwide, potentially by as much as 250 feet (76 m) if all the ice
melts (Poore et al. 2000). Coastal cities are at risk from sea level rise, and in fact,
whole countries such as Bangladesh, Micronesia, and Holland might end up sinking
beneath the waves like a modern-day Atlantis. Ocean currents may change, affecting local climates. Longer and more intense droughts are also more likely, along
with stronger and less predictable storms. Agriculture and manufacturing will be
affected, and areas of the planet that are considered “habitable” may need to be
re-defined.
9.2 Climate Contrarians
technical journals. Any credible scientific argument that purports to show climate
change is a hoax must explain the following three points:
(1) Other than the human combustion of fossil fuels, what else can account for the
dramatic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured since 1957 at
Mauna Loa?
(2) What evidence shows that Joseph Fourier’s physics for the absorption of
infrared radiation by CO 2 in the atmosphere are not valid?
(3) What evidence shows that the Earth will react differently than it did during the
PETM as present-day GHG concentrations in the atmosphere approach those
same levels?
Humanity is running an experiment with GHG and climate change, with no clear
idea of how it might turn out. The IPCC gives a one in six chance that global temperatures will increase less than 2 °C in the next century and be lost in the natural
background. There is also a one in six chance that global temperatures may rise by
more than 9 °C and precipitate disasters like catastrophic sea level rise, intense
storms, droughts, killer heat waves and all the rest predicted by climate models
(IPCC 2018). The odds in Russian roulette are also one out of six. Do we really
want to risk playing that with the Earth?
Children are having nightmares about climate disasters. Youth is rising up and
demanding that something be done. People are marching and protesting about climate change on a regular basis. Energy and climate have become a part of national
and international political discourses, and politicians who don’t talk about it and
don’t have some kind of plan for dealing with it are criticized. Climate contrarians
are trying to stop a large and growing wave.
Humans will have to adapt to climate change, because it is too late to avoid it.
Even if all GHG emissions were stopped tomorrow, climate change is still going to
happen. Just as shutting down the engines of large ship will not bring it to a halt until
it has coasted for a considerable distance, the course for climate change has been set
by past and present human actions for an unknown amount of time into the future.
The effects on civilization are likely to be felt for centuries, possibly millennia. The
best we can do is to try reducing the magnitude of the impact by getting GHG emissions under control and stop making things worse.
There will be both physical and transitional impacts from climate change.
Physical impacts include elevated temperatures that may lead to deadly heat waves
in the tropics and long stretches of above-freezing temperatures in polar regions.
The heat will also melt sea ice, permafrost, and the polar ice caps on land areas like
Greenland and Antarctica. Meltwater from this land ice pouring into the oceans will
raise sea levels worldwide, potentially by as much as 250 feet (76 m) if all the ice
melts (Poore et al. 2000). Coastal cities are at risk from sea level rise, and in fact,
whole countries such as Bangladesh, Micronesia, and Holland might end up sinking
beneath the waves like a modern-day Atlantis. Ocean currents may change, affecting local climates. Longer and more intense droughts are also more likely, along
with stronger and less predictable storms. Agriculture and manufacturing will be
affected, and areas of the planet that are considered “habitable” may need to be
re-defined.
9.2 Climate Contrarians