Chapter 4
Classifying the Forest Surfaces
in Metropolitan Areas by Their Wildfire
Ignition Probability and Spreading
Capacity in Support of Forest Fire Risk
Reduction
Artan Hysa
Abstract The main objective of this work is to develop a cost-free and rapid method
for categorizing the forest surfaces in metropolitan areas based on their Wildfire
Ignition Probability Index (WIPI) and Wildfire Spreading Capacity Index (WSCI).
The original method applies a multi-criterion (social, environmental, and physical) framework and utilizes commercial software for spatial analysis and collecting
environmental data. Instead, this study utilizes QGIS as an open-source software
during all geospatial analytical phases. At this stage, the method is tested on the
metropolitan area of Tirana (Albania), relying on a variety of open-source geospatial
databases. First, the forest surfaces are identified based on Urban Atlas land cover and
are translated into regular point grid (100 m). Each point is loaded with unique values
regarding each criterion. The diversity among values of different criteria is normalized by redistributing them into 10 classes based on Jenks natural break method. Class
values of each criterion are introduced into the indexing equation multiplied by their
respective impact factor as weighted via Analytical Hierarchy Processing. Finally,
each representative point is calculated as a final WIPI and WSCI value. The locations
possessing relatively highest values indicate areas of significant wildfire ignition and
spreading likelihood. The results of the study validate a rapid and cost-free method
for forest fire risk assessment being applicable and reproducible on similar study
areas at metropolitan scale. The method presented in this chapter is aimed to support
of forest fire risk reduction agendas at local level in the developing countries.
Keywords Forest fire risk assessment · Wildfire ignition probability · QGIS ·
Urban atlas · Analytical hierarchy process · Albania
A. Hysa (B)
Faculty of Architecture and Engineering, Epoka University, Tirana, Albania
e-mail: ahysa@epoka.edu.al
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
R. Djalante et al. (eds.), Integrated Research on Disaster Risks, Disaster Risk Reduction,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55563-4_4
51
Classifying the Forest Surfaces
in Metropolitan Areas by Their Wildfire
Ignition Probability and Spreading
Capacity in Support of Forest Fire Risk
Reduction
Artan Hysa
Abstract The main objective of this work is to develop a cost-free and rapid method
for categorizing the forest surfaces in metropolitan areas based on their Wildfire
Ignition Probability Index (WIPI) and Wildfire Spreading Capacity Index (WSCI).
The original method applies a multi-criterion (social, environmental, and physical) framework and utilizes commercial software for spatial analysis and collecting
environmental data. Instead, this study utilizes QGIS as an open-source software
during all geospatial analytical phases. At this stage, the method is tested on the
metropolitan area of Tirana (Albania), relying on a variety of open-source geospatial
databases. First, the forest surfaces are identified based on Urban Atlas land cover and
are translated into regular point grid (100 m). Each point is loaded with unique values
regarding each criterion. The diversity among values of different criteria is normalized by redistributing them into 10 classes based on Jenks natural break method. Class
values of each criterion are introduced into the indexing equation multiplied by their
respective impact factor as weighted via Analytical Hierarchy Processing. Finally,
each representative point is calculated as a final WIPI and WSCI value. The locations
possessing relatively highest values indicate areas of significant wildfire ignition and
spreading likelihood. The results of the study validate a rapid and cost-free method
for forest fire risk assessment being applicable and reproducible on similar study
areas at metropolitan scale. The method presented in this chapter is aimed to support
of forest fire risk reduction agendas at local level in the developing countries.
Keywords Forest fire risk assessment · Wildfire ignition probability · QGIS ·
Urban atlas · Analytical hierarchy process · Albania
A. Hysa (B)
Faculty of Architecture and Engineering, Epoka University, Tirana, Albania
e-mail: ahysa@epoka.edu.al
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
R. Djalante et al. (eds.), Integrated Research on Disaster Risks, Disaster Risk Reduction,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55563-4_4
51