3 Increasing Trends in Tropical Cyclone Induced Surge Impacts ...
49
height has been demonstrated through case studies. A large difference in surge level
is found for TC cases making landfall over the eastern part of the NIO versus the
western part. However, further study is necessary to explain such spatial variation in
the surge level. In conclusion, it is expected that higher maximum surge level over
the NIO especially over the AS basin will occur if the projected TC activity is robust.
In this study, intense TCs (hurricane category-1 with intensity >64 kt) in the
climatology and future periods simulated by a climate model have been applied
as inputs to a storm surge model. Results clearly demonstrated that maximum surge
height will be higher over the NIO in the future. Compared to the BoB, the increasing
surge level over the AS is more remarkable, which is more than double compared to
the past. These results are consistent with the study by Murakami et al. (2013, 2017)
who predicted the occurrence of more intense TCs over the NIO and especially over
the AS basin. The uniqueness of this study is that model simulated TC information has
been applied for generating inundation depth while some other studies used synthetic
TC tracks for estimating inundation depth. For instance, Sahoo and Bhaskaran (2018)
used synthetic TC tracks for analysing inundation due to TC activity for India’s east
coast. Another study by Dasgupta et al. (2013) used an estimated inundation risk
map for Bangladesh for the year 2050. They took climate change into account and
reported an inundation depth of more than 6 m for some regions including Bhola and
Hatiya island. This study found similar results for the year 2090.
References
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Historical cyclones. http://bmd.gov.bd/p/Histor
ical-Cyclones/
Chen C, Beardsley RC, Cowles G (2006) An unstructured grid, finite-volume coastal ocean model
(FVCOM) system. Oceanography 19:78–89
Cheung KF, Phadke AC, Wei Y, Rojas R, Douyere YM, Martino CD, Houston SH, Liu PF, Lynett PJ,
Dodd N, Liao S (2003) Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management.
Ocean Eng 30:1353–1386
Choudhury SA (2014) Effective tropical cyclone warning in Bangladesh. Country report
Das PK (1972) Prediction model for storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Nature 239:211
Dasgupta S, Huq M, Khan ZH, Ahmed MMZ, Mukherjee N, Khan MF, Pandey K (2013) Cyclones
in a changing climate: the case of Bangladesh. Climate Dev 6:96–110
Dube S, Jain I, Rao A, Murty T (2009) Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian
Sea. J Int Soc Prev Mitig Nat Hazards 51:3–27
Dube SK, Chittibabu P, Rao AD, Sinh PC, Murty TS (2000) Sea levels and coastal inundation due
to tropical cyclones in Indian coastal regions of Andhra and Orissa. Mar Geodesy 23:65–73
Gayathri R, Bhaskaran PK, Jose F (2017) Coastal inundation research: an overview of the process.
Curr Sci 112:267–278
Graeme DH, Kathleen LM (1999) A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact
studies. J Coastal Res 15:168–185
Jelesnianski CP (1972) SPLASH (Special Programme to List Amplitudes of Surges from
Hurricanes) and landfall stormsTech. Memo, NWS TDL-46
Jisan MA, Bao S, Pietrafesa LJ (2018) Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm
surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:351–364
49
height has been demonstrated through case studies. A large difference in surge level
is found for TC cases making landfall over the eastern part of the NIO versus the
western part. However, further study is necessary to explain such spatial variation in
the surge level. In conclusion, it is expected that higher maximum surge level over
the NIO especially over the AS basin will occur if the projected TC activity is robust.
In this study, intense TCs (hurricane category-1 with intensity >64 kt) in the
climatology and future periods simulated by a climate model have been applied
as inputs to a storm surge model. Results clearly demonstrated that maximum surge
height will be higher over the NIO in the future. Compared to the BoB, the increasing
surge level over the AS is more remarkable, which is more than double compared to
the past. These results are consistent with the study by Murakami et al. (2013, 2017)
who predicted the occurrence of more intense TCs over the NIO and especially over
the AS basin. The uniqueness of this study is that model simulated TC information has
been applied for generating inundation depth while some other studies used synthetic
TC tracks for estimating inundation depth. For instance, Sahoo and Bhaskaran (2018)
used synthetic TC tracks for analysing inundation due to TC activity for India’s east
coast. Another study by Dasgupta et al. (2013) used an estimated inundation risk
map for Bangladesh for the year 2050. They took climate change into account and
reported an inundation depth of more than 6 m for some regions including Bhola and
Hatiya island. This study found similar results for the year 2090.
References
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Historical cyclones. http://bmd.gov.bd/p/Histor
ical-Cyclones/
Chen C, Beardsley RC, Cowles G (2006) An unstructured grid, finite-volume coastal ocean model
(FVCOM) system. Oceanography 19:78–89
Cheung KF, Phadke AC, Wei Y, Rojas R, Douyere YM, Martino CD, Houston SH, Liu PF, Lynett PJ,
Dodd N, Liao S (2003) Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management.
Ocean Eng 30:1353–1386
Choudhury SA (2014) Effective tropical cyclone warning in Bangladesh. Country report
Das PK (1972) Prediction model for storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Nature 239:211
Dasgupta S, Huq M, Khan ZH, Ahmed MMZ, Mukherjee N, Khan MF, Pandey K (2013) Cyclones
in a changing climate: the case of Bangladesh. Climate Dev 6:96–110
Dube S, Jain I, Rao A, Murty T (2009) Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian
Sea. J Int Soc Prev Mitig Nat Hazards 51:3–27
Dube SK, Chittibabu P, Rao AD, Sinh PC, Murty TS (2000) Sea levels and coastal inundation due
to tropical cyclones in Indian coastal regions of Andhra and Orissa. Mar Geodesy 23:65–73
Gayathri R, Bhaskaran PK, Jose F (2017) Coastal inundation research: an overview of the process.
Curr Sci 112:267–278
Graeme DH, Kathleen LM (1999) A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact
studies. J Coastal Res 15:168–185
Jelesnianski CP (1972) SPLASH (Special Programme to List Amplitudes of Surges from
Hurricanes) and landfall stormsTech. Memo, NWS TDL-46
Jisan MA, Bao S, Pietrafesa LJ (2018) Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm
surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:351–364