50
E. A. Agosta et al.
making flooding more likely. In agreement with the Argentine Ministry of Environment, Argentina lost 7.6 million hectares of forests between 1990 and 2015, an area
the size of Scotland.
4 That means 370,000 hectares of forests that could help absorb
water during periods of heavy rain was lost per year (see Fig. 9).
In the remaining of this section, we will explore whether population and agricultural production have been expanding into more risky areas and therefore are
contributing factors to the observed vulnerability. We will base our analysis on the
MFM index described in Section “Data and Methodology.”
Population Changes and Flood Hazards
Recent estimates by the reinsurance company Swiss Re account that about 1 in 3
Argentines lives in areas highly exposed to flooding, amounting to a total of 14.2 m
people across the country (Swiss Re 2016), and most of them live in ESA. Thus,
understanding changes in population exposure to potential flood hazards is critical
to implement an integrated and sustainable approach to floodplain management. As
we already discussed, flooding vulnerability is a combination of climatic hazards,
which seems to have worsen in recent years, and the economic activity and number
of people exposed to those hazards. In this regard, knowledge about the number of
people living in floodplains, and how it has evolved in the last decades in Argentina,
remains limited.
In agreement with the last National Population Census (2010), in ESA—including
the GBA—there exist 213 municipalities which host about 25 million people, representing 62% of the country population. On average, population in those municipalities
has increased by 8.28% between 2001 and 2010, with only 15 localities experiencing
a decrease in population.
Excluding the municipalities in GBA, those districts in ESA within the upper
quartile of the MFM index distribution have approximately 4.5 times as much population as those in the lower quartile of the flood risk distribution. In part, this is the
result of the way in which the flood risk index is constructed, because the number
of affected people during a flood event tends to be higher in more populated areas.
It is for this reason that we cannot infer causality from structural risks to population
dynamics. In any case, what seems to be evident from the data, and not surprising,
is that population has settled in vulnerable areas along the margins of major rivers.
Perhaps more important, though, is to analyze how population has evolved in the
last decade relative to the structural flooding risks. Without disregarding the fact that
population dynamics and migration are multi-causal phenomena, and that the deep
understanding of them is beyond the scope of this paper, we think it might be useful
to explore the spatial correlation between structural flood risks and inter-census
population changes.
4 Data available at the UN Statistical Division, Environmental Indicators, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/
environment/qindicators.htm.
E. A. Agosta et al.
making flooding more likely. In agreement with the Argentine Ministry of Environment, Argentina lost 7.6 million hectares of forests between 1990 and 2015, an area
the size of Scotland.
4 That means 370,000 hectares of forests that could help absorb
water during periods of heavy rain was lost per year (see Fig. 9).
In the remaining of this section, we will explore whether population and agricultural production have been expanding into more risky areas and therefore are
contributing factors to the observed vulnerability. We will base our analysis on the
MFM index described in Section “Data and Methodology.”
Population Changes and Flood Hazards
Recent estimates by the reinsurance company Swiss Re account that about 1 in 3
Argentines lives in areas highly exposed to flooding, amounting to a total of 14.2 m
people across the country (Swiss Re 2016), and most of them live in ESA. Thus,
understanding changes in population exposure to potential flood hazards is critical
to implement an integrated and sustainable approach to floodplain management. As
we already discussed, flooding vulnerability is a combination of climatic hazards,
which seems to have worsen in recent years, and the economic activity and number
of people exposed to those hazards. In this regard, knowledge about the number of
people living in floodplains, and how it has evolved in the last decades in Argentina,
remains limited.
In agreement with the last National Population Census (2010), in ESA—including
the GBA—there exist 213 municipalities which host about 25 million people, representing 62% of the country population. On average, population in those municipalities
has increased by 8.28% between 2001 and 2010, with only 15 localities experiencing
a decrease in population.
Excluding the municipalities in GBA, those districts in ESA within the upper
quartile of the MFM index distribution have approximately 4.5 times as much population as those in the lower quartile of the flood risk distribution. In part, this is the
result of the way in which the flood risk index is constructed, because the number
of affected people during a flood event tends to be higher in more populated areas.
It is for this reason that we cannot infer causality from structural risks to population
dynamics. In any case, what seems to be evident from the data, and not surprising,
is that population has settled in vulnerable areas along the margins of major rivers.
Perhaps more important, though, is to analyze how population has evolved in the
last decade relative to the structural flooding risks. Without disregarding the fact that
population dynamics and migration are multi-causal phenomena, and that the deep
understanding of them is beyond the scope of this paper, we think it might be useful
to explore the spatial correlation between structural flood risks and inter-census
population changes.
4 Data available at the UN Statistical Division, Environmental Indicators, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/
environment/qindicators.htm.