38
E. A. Agosta et al.
America, including ESA region, has been dramatically altered by the introduction
of intensive agriculture (Tucci and Clarke 1998; Krepper et al. 2008).
Therefore, our aim is twofold. On the one hand, we will examine flood risk in
ESA region as determined by the maximum flood magnitude (MFM) index devised
by the Federal Government. We will assess some changes in the main natural factors
related to the hydrological cycle that can cause or increase flood hazard, such as
changes in mean and extreme precipitation over ESA, as well as changes in streamflow and underground water storage during the present climate. We will examine
mean precipitation conditions projected for future climate under a business-as-usual
scenario of highly increased GHG concentrations. On the other hand, from a sustainable development perspective, we will explore how population has grown in areas
with different flood risks, and whether agricultural production has expanded over
such areas. To understand people’s exposure to flood hazard and land use change is
critical to develop integral flood management policies.
Data and Methodology
Spatial flood risk structure and decadal changes of flood risks were explored at
the municipality level
1 using MFM index, provided by the Federal Government
in the period 1970–2009. This risk index is generated on base of data from the
“Desinventar” Project, an inventory system of the effects of disasters, collecting
data for each country in Latin America, except Brazil, and a few countries in other
continents (India, Iran, Algeria, and Mali). Like EM-DAT, a well-known international disaster database, “Desinventar” relies on official information complemented
from other sources, such as newspapers with national coverage. More information
about the project is available at http://www.desinventar.org/. The MFM consists of a
composite score of flood severity that includes information on number of events and
their duration, affected people, and economic losses. Further details on the methodology to obtain the MFM index can be found at the Federal Government Web site
“Atlas Indicadores de Desarrollo Territorial de la República Argentina” (http://atl
asid.planificacion.gob.ar/). Internal population migrations were also estimated from
census data, provided by the National Statistical Office (INDEC, in Spanish), to
relate with flood hazards.
Daily precipitation data from meteorological stations provided by the National
(Argentine) Weather Service were used (Fig. 1, panel b) to analyze annual total
mean precipitation fields and extreme precipitation indices in the period 1961–
2015. Extreme precipitation changes were analyzed through linear changes of
the total annual precipitation due to strong precipitation days (R75p95pTOT) and
due to extreme precipitation days (R95pTOT). The extreme index R75p95pTOT
was defined as annual total precipitation when daily rainfall (RR) falls into the
1 Departments or municipalities are the third administrative unit of importance in Argentina below
the national and provincial governments.
E. A. Agosta et al.
America, including ESA region, has been dramatically altered by the introduction
of intensive agriculture (Tucci and Clarke 1998; Krepper et al. 2008).
Therefore, our aim is twofold. On the one hand, we will examine flood risk in
ESA region as determined by the maximum flood magnitude (MFM) index devised
by the Federal Government. We will assess some changes in the main natural factors
related to the hydrological cycle that can cause or increase flood hazard, such as
changes in mean and extreme precipitation over ESA, as well as changes in streamflow and underground water storage during the present climate. We will examine
mean precipitation conditions projected for future climate under a business-as-usual
scenario of highly increased GHG concentrations. On the other hand, from a sustainable development perspective, we will explore how population has grown in areas
with different flood risks, and whether agricultural production has expanded over
such areas. To understand people’s exposure to flood hazard and land use change is
critical to develop integral flood management policies.
Data and Methodology
Spatial flood risk structure and decadal changes of flood risks were explored at
the municipality level
1 using MFM index, provided by the Federal Government
in the period 1970–2009. This risk index is generated on base of data from the
“Desinventar” Project, an inventory system of the effects of disasters, collecting
data for each country in Latin America, except Brazil, and a few countries in other
continents (India, Iran, Algeria, and Mali). Like EM-DAT, a well-known international disaster database, “Desinventar” relies on official information complemented
from other sources, such as newspapers with national coverage. More information
about the project is available at http://www.desinventar.org/. The MFM consists of a
composite score of flood severity that includes information on number of events and
their duration, affected people, and economic losses. Further details on the methodology to obtain the MFM index can be found at the Federal Government Web site
“Atlas Indicadores de Desarrollo Territorial de la República Argentina” (http://atl
asid.planificacion.gob.ar/). Internal population migrations were also estimated from
census data, provided by the National Statistical Office (INDEC, in Spanish), to
relate with flood hazards.
Daily precipitation data from meteorological stations provided by the National
(Argentine) Weather Service were used (Fig. 1, panel b) to analyze annual total
mean precipitation fields and extreme precipitation indices in the period 1961–
2015. Extreme precipitation changes were analyzed through linear changes of
the total annual precipitation due to strong precipitation days (R75p95pTOT) and
due to extreme precipitation days (R95pTOT). The extreme index R75p95pTOT
was defined as annual total precipitation when daily rainfall (RR) falls into the
1 Departments or municipalities are the third administrative unit of importance in Argentina below
the national and provincial governments.