Floods in Eastern Subtropical Argentina:
The Contributing Roles of Climate
Change and Socioeconomics
Eduardo Andrés Agosta, Mariano Javier Rabassa, Lucio Florio,
and Mariana Paula Torrero
Abstract The roles of climate and socioeconomic components contributing to floods
over eastern subtropical Argentina (ESA) region, the eastern portion of subtropical
Argentina, are explored. The national structural flood risk map shows that the region
manifests the national flood riskiest areas. Decadal mean flood risk values have
peaked in the 1980s, though there is a positive trend in the subregion of Buenos Aires
Metropolitan Area (GBA). One major natural factor to consider is flood hazard due to
precipitation extreme events that have increased about 30% on average over the GBA
subregion and northeastern ESA. The Paraná River shows positive streamflow trend
attributable to climatic natural factors and climate change. Deforestation appears to
be a high-pressure factor, due to decreased evapotranspiration and limited soil water
storage capacity. Future climate projections indicate exacerbation of extreme events
of precipitation and streamflow peaks. A critical aspect that makes the region further
vulnerable is the lack of continuous and planned flood management policies. The
increasing extreme rainfalls and flooding in the context of global climate change
demand a complex approach of the phenomena.
E. A. Agosta
Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata,
Argentina
e-mail: eduardo.agosta@fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina
M. J. Rabassa (B)
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Católica Argentina, Alicia Moreau de Justo 1400,
Edificio Santo Tomás Moro, C1107AFF Buenos Aires, Argentina
e-mail: mariano_rabassa@uca.edu.ar
L. Florio
Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Católica Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina
e-mail: lflorio@uca.edu.ar
M. P. Torrero
Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Católica Argentina, Buenos Aires,
Argentina
e-mail: mariana_torrero@uca.edu.ar
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
M. E. Belfiori and M. J. Rabassa, (eds.) The Economics of Climate Change
in Argentina, The Latin American Studies Book Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62252-7_3
35
The Contributing Roles of Climate
Change and Socioeconomics
Eduardo Andrés Agosta, Mariano Javier Rabassa, Lucio Florio,
and Mariana Paula Torrero
Abstract The roles of climate and socioeconomic components contributing to floods
over eastern subtropical Argentina (ESA) region, the eastern portion of subtropical
Argentina, are explored. The national structural flood risk map shows that the region
manifests the national flood riskiest areas. Decadal mean flood risk values have
peaked in the 1980s, though there is a positive trend in the subregion of Buenos Aires
Metropolitan Area (GBA). One major natural factor to consider is flood hazard due to
precipitation extreme events that have increased about 30% on average over the GBA
subregion and northeastern ESA. The Paraná River shows positive streamflow trend
attributable to climatic natural factors and climate change. Deforestation appears to
be a high-pressure factor, due to decreased evapotranspiration and limited soil water
storage capacity. Future climate projections indicate exacerbation of extreme events
of precipitation and streamflow peaks. A critical aspect that makes the region further
vulnerable is the lack of continuous and planned flood management policies. The
increasing extreme rainfalls and flooding in the context of global climate change
demand a complex approach of the phenomena.
E. A. Agosta
Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata,
Argentina
e-mail: eduardo.agosta@fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina
M. J. Rabassa (B)
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Católica Argentina, Alicia Moreau de Justo 1400,
Edificio Santo Tomás Moro, C1107AFF Buenos Aires, Argentina
e-mail: mariano_rabassa@uca.edu.ar
L. Florio
Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Católica Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina
e-mail: lflorio@uca.edu.ar
M. P. Torrero
Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Católica Argentina, Buenos Aires,
Argentina
e-mail: mariana_torrero@uca.edu.ar
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
M. E. Belfiori and M. J. Rabassa, (eds.) The Economics of Climate Change
in Argentina, The Latin American Studies Book Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62252-7_3
35