4
C. M. García-Witulski and M. J. Rabassa
and policy concerns. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that
climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per
year worldwide between 2030 and 2050, due to malnutrition, diarrhea, and heat
stress (World Meteorological Organization 2018).
Presently, the global mean temperature is approximately 1.2
◦ C above the preindustrial era (World Meteorological Organization 2017). There exists a strong agreement among the scientific community regarding the human influence on the observed
and predicted changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. For instances, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to the observed rise in terrestrial and ocean temperatures since 1970. Without further attempts to curb these emissions, it is predicted
that the global mean temperature will rise between 3.7 and 4.8
◦ C by the end of
the century, increasing extremely hot days while decreasing cold ones (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014). Understanding the effects that extreme
temperatures pose on human health is key to promote effective adaptation policies
to rising temperatures from climatic change.
Potential impacts of weather changes on mortality are usually divided between
direct impacts, i.e., those produced by temperature increases or weather-related natural disasters, and indirect impacts arising mainly from changes in vector-borne
diseases and food security. This paper concerns with the former: the direct effect that
extreme temperatures have on mortality risks.
The relationship between thermal extremes and mortality has been extensively
documented in the literature for developed countries (Baccini et al. 2008; Basu and
Samet 2002; Basu et al. 2005; Braga et al. 2002; Curriero et al. 2002; MedinaRamón and Schwartz 2007) and to a lesser extent in developing countries. In Latin
America, the evidence is pretty thin (Bel et al. 2008; Romero-Lankao et al. 2013). In
general, these studies find excess mortality during both cold and hot periods, although
this relationship varies greatly by geographic regions. Also, they report differences
in population susceptibility, with women and the elderly at most risk. For a more
detailed survey of findings, see Basu and Samet (2002) and Basu (2009).
A few studies have documented the influence of weather on human health in
major Argentine cities. The closers to our work are Almeira et al. (2016), which
reports a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality for the cities
of Buenos Aires and Rosario, and De Garín and Bejarán (2003), which examines
the effect of thermal stress during summertime, characterized by the relative strain
index, on mortality rates in Buenos Aires city. Other study, using data from emergency room visits at a hospital in central Buenos Aires reports the association between
weather conditions and several pathologies for wintertime and summertime, during
the 1996–97 season (Rusticucci et al. 2002). Yet other studies have turned their focus
into specific pathologies, particularly respiratory diseases. For instance, Piccolo et al.
(1988) documented the relationship between asthma hospitalizations and meteorological variables in Bahia Blanca. More recently, two studies for the city of Córdoba
find that a higher daily mean temperature and a wider daily temperature range are
important determinants of infectious diseases in both the upper and lower respiratory
C. M. García-Witulski and M. J. Rabassa
and policy concerns. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that
climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per
year worldwide between 2030 and 2050, due to malnutrition, diarrhea, and heat
stress (World Meteorological Organization 2018).
Presently, the global mean temperature is approximately 1.2
◦ C above the preindustrial era (World Meteorological Organization 2017). There exists a strong agreement among the scientific community regarding the human influence on the observed
and predicted changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. For instances, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to the observed rise in terrestrial and ocean temperatures since 1970. Without further attempts to curb these emissions, it is predicted
that the global mean temperature will rise between 3.7 and 4.8
◦ C by the end of
the century, increasing extremely hot days while decreasing cold ones (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014). Understanding the effects that extreme
temperatures pose on human health is key to promote effective adaptation policies
to rising temperatures from climatic change.
Potential impacts of weather changes on mortality are usually divided between
direct impacts, i.e., those produced by temperature increases or weather-related natural disasters, and indirect impacts arising mainly from changes in vector-borne
diseases and food security. This paper concerns with the former: the direct effect that
extreme temperatures have on mortality risks.
The relationship between thermal extremes and mortality has been extensively
documented in the literature for developed countries (Baccini et al. 2008; Basu and
Samet 2002; Basu et al. 2005; Braga et al. 2002; Curriero et al. 2002; MedinaRamón and Schwartz 2007) and to a lesser extent in developing countries. In Latin
America, the evidence is pretty thin (Bel et al. 2008; Romero-Lankao et al. 2013). In
general, these studies find excess mortality during both cold and hot periods, although
this relationship varies greatly by geographic regions. Also, they report differences
in population susceptibility, with women and the elderly at most risk. For a more
detailed survey of findings, see Basu and Samet (2002) and Basu (2009).
A few studies have documented the influence of weather on human health in
major Argentine cities. The closers to our work are Almeira et al. (2016), which
reports a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality for the cities
of Buenos Aires and Rosario, and De Garín and Bejarán (2003), which examines
the effect of thermal stress during summertime, characterized by the relative strain
index, on mortality rates in Buenos Aires city. Other study, using data from emergency room visits at a hospital in central Buenos Aires reports the association between
weather conditions and several pathologies for wintertime and summertime, during
the 1996–97 season (Rusticucci et al. 2002). Yet other studies have turned their focus
into specific pathologies, particularly respiratory diseases. For instance, Piccolo et al.
(1988) documented the relationship between asthma hospitalizations and meteorological variables in Bahia Blanca. More recently, two studies for the city of Córdoba
find that a higher daily mean temperature and a wider daily temperature range are
important determinants of infectious diseases in both the upper and lower respiratory