5.4.3.1 Monte Carlo
• Triangular distribution was used in wind investment, fish investment, and fish
revenue.
• Normal distribution was used in fish labor, raw material, other, maintenance,
operating costs, and energy output.
5.4.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis
We consider the following scenarios for the purposes of sensitivity analysis. The
scenarios refer to the fish sub-project.
Min
Base
a
Max
Equipment (fish)
0.85
1.00
1.15
Revenue (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Labor (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Raw material (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Other (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Maintenance (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Operating costs (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
a Base refers to 100% of the central value for the corresponding variable. Min and max refer to the
corresponding percentages of the base case
5.4.4 Baltic Site
For the Baltic site, the only platform use that needed to be examined was energy.
5.4.4.1 Monte Carlo Simulation
• Triangular distribution was used in energy investment and maintenance.
• Normal distribution was used in energy output and artificial reefs.
5.4.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis
We consider the following scenarios for the purposes of sensitivity analysis. The
scenarios refer only to the energy project. Note that due to lack of data, the NPV
calculations do not include operating costs; thus, the sensitivity analysis refers to the
NPV defined in terms of construction cost, maintenance cost, and revenues due to
energy output and reefs. In the Monte Carlo analysis, we have calculated the
maximum annual equivalent operating cost which would result in a positive NPV.
5 An Interdisciplinary Web-Based Decision Support System for Socio-economic. . .
91
• Triangular distribution was used in wind investment, fish investment, and fish
revenue.
• Normal distribution was used in fish labor, raw material, other, maintenance,
operating costs, and energy output.
5.4.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis
We consider the following scenarios for the purposes of sensitivity analysis. The
scenarios refer to the fish sub-project.
Min
Base
a
Max
Equipment (fish)
0.85
1.00
1.15
Revenue (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Labor (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Raw material (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Other (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Maintenance (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
Operating costs (fish)
0.75
1.00
1.25
a Base refers to 100% of the central value for the corresponding variable. Min and max refer to the
corresponding percentages of the base case
5.4.4 Baltic Site
For the Baltic site, the only platform use that needed to be examined was energy.
5.4.4.1 Monte Carlo Simulation
• Triangular distribution was used in energy investment and maintenance.
• Normal distribution was used in energy output and artificial reefs.
5.4.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis
We consider the following scenarios for the purposes of sensitivity analysis. The
scenarios refer only to the energy project. Note that due to lack of data, the NPV
calculations do not include operating costs; thus, the sensitivity analysis refers to the
NPV defined in terms of construction cost, maintenance cost, and revenues due to
energy output and reefs. In the Monte Carlo analysis, we have calculated the
maximum annual equivalent operating cost which would result in a positive NPV.
5 An Interdisciplinary Web-Based Decision Support System for Socio-economic. . .
91