Natural gas: As stated in the 13th Five-Year
Development Plan for Natural Gas, China will
deepen cooperation with gas producers by
diversifying
gas
supply,
safeguarding
cross-border pipelines to ensure supply security,
enhancing cooperation with gas consumers,
accelerating the formation of regional gas markets and building more pricing power in those
markets.
Renewable energy: According to the 13th
Five-Year Development Plan for Renewable
Energy, China will actively promote global
energy transition and drive the formation of a
global renewable energy value chain to sharpen
the international competitiveness of the renewable energy industry. China will also promote
high-profile cooperation projects in the BRI
countries to help consulting, contracting, equipment manufacturing and other businesses in the
sector to expand their overseas markets.
Box 20: Climate change risk assessment by the Chinese government
A risk assessment of climate change
includes: (i) future global greenhouse gas
emission pathways; (ii) direct risks to the
climate from global greenhouse gas emissions, and; (iii) risks caused by the interaction between climate and human beings.
1. Future global greenhouse gas emission pathways
Current policies of the major countries
and regions follow the medium to high
emissions pathway, i.e. greenhouse gas
emissions will continue to rise in the
coming decades, then stabilise before
decreasing gradually. The low emissions
pathway calls for intensive technical
innovation in wind power, nuclear energy,
solar energy storage, biofuels, carbon
storage, large-scale energy conservation
and other energy technologies; otherwise,
it will be hard to achieve near-zero emissions by the end of this century.
Exploitation of coal reserves, oil shale
and methane hydrate will increase the
likelihood of countries taking the high
emissions pathway. Emissions impact the
climate, so all pathways except near-zero
emissions will increase risk over time.
2. Direct risks to the climate from global greenhouse gas emissions
The risk of climate change is nonlinear
and may intensify at any time. Many factors may lead to sudden or irreversible
change, causing high uncertainty.
Any emissions pathway can cause a
global rise in temperature. The ability of
human beings to endure heat stress is
limited. Current weather conditions exceed
the work safety threshold in some tropical
countries. Future weather conditions could
go beyond the fatal heat threshold. Crop
tolerance of high temperatures is also limited. Crop yields will decrease substantially
in future if weather conditions exceed the
critical threshold. Therefore, climate
change will bring enormous risks to global
food security.
Water resource pressure intensifies with
population increases. In some regions, climate change could increase the risk of
acute water shortage. The probability of
extreme drought on farmland will increase
significantly. Although climate change
mitigates water shortage in South and East
Asia, it increases the risk of flooding,
especially in the high emissions pathway.
Frequent flooding will result in greater loss
of life, crops and assets, and the need for
extensive flood control at higher cost.
Climate models show that due to the
inertia of the climate system, when the
global temperature rises by 2°C, global sea
level will rise by 10–15 meters with the
melting of the ice cap. But when this will
happen is highly uncertain.
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W. Jigang and P. Webb
Development Plan for Natural Gas, China will
deepen cooperation with gas producers by
diversifying
gas
supply,
safeguarding
cross-border pipelines to ensure supply security,
enhancing cooperation with gas consumers,
accelerating the formation of regional gas markets and building more pricing power in those
markets.
Renewable energy: According to the 13th
Five-Year Development Plan for Renewable
Energy, China will actively promote global
energy transition and drive the formation of a
global renewable energy value chain to sharpen
the international competitiveness of the renewable energy industry. China will also promote
high-profile cooperation projects in the BRI
countries to help consulting, contracting, equipment manufacturing and other businesses in the
sector to expand their overseas markets.
Box 20: Climate change risk assessment by the Chinese government
A risk assessment of climate change
includes: (i) future global greenhouse gas
emission pathways; (ii) direct risks to the
climate from global greenhouse gas emissions, and; (iii) risks caused by the interaction between climate and human beings.
1. Future global greenhouse gas emission pathways
Current policies of the major countries
and regions follow the medium to high
emissions pathway, i.e. greenhouse gas
emissions will continue to rise in the
coming decades, then stabilise before
decreasing gradually. The low emissions
pathway calls for intensive technical
innovation in wind power, nuclear energy,
solar energy storage, biofuels, carbon
storage, large-scale energy conservation
and other energy technologies; otherwise,
it will be hard to achieve near-zero emissions by the end of this century.
Exploitation of coal reserves, oil shale
and methane hydrate will increase the
likelihood of countries taking the high
emissions pathway. Emissions impact the
climate, so all pathways except near-zero
emissions will increase risk over time.
2. Direct risks to the climate from global greenhouse gas emissions
The risk of climate change is nonlinear
and may intensify at any time. Many factors may lead to sudden or irreversible
change, causing high uncertainty.
Any emissions pathway can cause a
global rise in temperature. The ability of
human beings to endure heat stress is
limited. Current weather conditions exceed
the work safety threshold in some tropical
countries. Future weather conditions could
go beyond the fatal heat threshold. Crop
tolerance of high temperatures is also limited. Crop yields will decrease substantially
in future if weather conditions exceed the
critical threshold. Therefore, climate
change will bring enormous risks to global
food security.
Water resource pressure intensifies with
population increases. In some regions, climate change could increase the risk of
acute water shortage. The probability of
extreme drought on farmland will increase
significantly. Although climate change
mitigates water shortage in South and East
Asia, it increases the risk of flooding,
especially in the high emissions pathway.
Frequent flooding will result in greater loss
of life, crops and assets, and the need for
extensive flood control at higher cost.
Climate models show that due to the
inertia of the climate system, when the
global temperature rises by 2°C, global sea
level will rise by 10–15 meters with the
melting of the ice cap. But when this will
happen is highly uncertain.
668
W. Jigang and P. Webb