China still lags behind developed countries in
terms of calculating aerodynamics and load, flow
field analysis and other basic R&D fields, as well
as large wind turbine design, bearings, the main
control and pitch control systems, and other
high-end technologies. For example, leading
overseas wind turbine manufacturers have commercialised 4–7 MW wind turbines. Prototypes
of 8 MW wind turbines are at the installation and
testing stage. Wind turbine companies in Europe
and North America are already designing
10 MW turbines and are exploring and
researching 20 MW models. There is a gap
between China and those countries.
Second, solar PV technologies are facing
severe challenges to their leadership in the latest
cell technologies. Interdigitated back contact
(IBC), heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer
(HIT), passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC),
metal wrap through (MWT), bifacial and other
efficient cell technologies are developing rapidly
across the world and about to be commercialised.
But there is still a gap between China and the
developed world, especially in IBC and HIT
cells.
Third, the cost effectiveness of CSP technologies needs to be improved. Practical experience is insufficient and technical standards are
incomplete. China’s CSP technologies are now at
the stage of pilot demonstration. Equipment
manufacturing and project development technologies are not mature. There is much to be
done in technological development. The investment cost per unit of capacity is still high.
CSP-related equipment manufacturing, design,
construction, operation and maintenance standards are relatively undeveloped. Experience
needs to be accumulated through project construction and operation.
55 Even through China
has introduced support policies, only a few
trough and tower CSP power plants are in
operation or under construction.
(4) Outlook for China’s new energy
technologies
First, the outlook for China’s wind power technologies. The cost of wind power will further
decrease to a level below that of conventional
power by 2030. China’s wind power industry
will maintain strong momentum, but its growth
will slow down. Wind power installed capacity
will exceed 450 GW by 2030. Lighter and longer
blades, integrated drive chains and taller, lighter
and easier-to-install towers will be developed.
The average cost per kWh of wind power will
decrease by more than 35% to RMB 0.35/kWh
by 2030.
Second, the outlook for China’s solar PV
power technologies. The cost of solar PV will fall
to a level lower than conventional power by
2030, and installed capacity will increase. China’s solar PV industry will maintain strong
momentum. PV installed capacity will exceed
400 GW by 2030. The conversion efficiency of
monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon cells
in commercial applications will reach 25% and
21% respectively, and that of thin film cells will
reach around 18%. The average cost per kWh of
PV power will fall by more than 50% to RMB
0.31/kwh by 2030, making it more competitive
than wind power.
Third, outlook for China’s CSP technologies.
Tower technology will mature by 2030 to lead
the global CSP sector into the stage of large-scale
development. China’s CSP industry will see
rapid development, with installed capacity
expected to reach 30,000 MW by 2030. Air
solid-state particle heat absorbers will be
deployed gradually. Ceramic, solid-state concrete
heat storage technologies will be developed, but
molten salt heat storage will still be the mainstream technology for large CSP plants. The
average cost per kWh of tower CSP power will
decrease by more than 40% to RMB 0.42/kWh
by 2030, getting closer to PV power and thus
more competitive.
55
Huang Qili, Zhang Zhengling, Zhang Ke, Li Qionghui
and Huang Bibin, The wind power and solar power parts
of the Report on Strategic and Emerging Industries of
China, 2016.
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
345
terms of calculating aerodynamics and load, flow
field analysis and other basic R&D fields, as well
as large wind turbine design, bearings, the main
control and pitch control systems, and other
high-end technologies. For example, leading
overseas wind turbine manufacturers have commercialised 4–7 MW wind turbines. Prototypes
of 8 MW wind turbines are at the installation and
testing stage. Wind turbine companies in Europe
and North America are already designing
10 MW turbines and are exploring and
researching 20 MW models. There is a gap
between China and those countries.
Second, solar PV technologies are facing
severe challenges to their leadership in the latest
cell technologies. Interdigitated back contact
(IBC), heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer
(HIT), passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC),
metal wrap through (MWT), bifacial and other
efficient cell technologies are developing rapidly
across the world and about to be commercialised.
But there is still a gap between China and the
developed world, especially in IBC and HIT
cells.
Third, the cost effectiveness of CSP technologies needs to be improved. Practical experience is insufficient and technical standards are
incomplete. China’s CSP technologies are now at
the stage of pilot demonstration. Equipment
manufacturing and project development technologies are not mature. There is much to be
done in technological development. The investment cost per unit of capacity is still high.
CSP-related equipment manufacturing, design,
construction, operation and maintenance standards are relatively undeveloped. Experience
needs to be accumulated through project construction and operation.
55 Even through China
has introduced support policies, only a few
trough and tower CSP power plants are in
operation or under construction.
(4) Outlook for China’s new energy
technologies
First, the outlook for China’s wind power technologies. The cost of wind power will further
decrease to a level below that of conventional
power by 2030. China’s wind power industry
will maintain strong momentum, but its growth
will slow down. Wind power installed capacity
will exceed 450 GW by 2030. Lighter and longer
blades, integrated drive chains and taller, lighter
and easier-to-install towers will be developed.
The average cost per kWh of wind power will
decrease by more than 35% to RMB 0.35/kWh
by 2030.
Second, the outlook for China’s solar PV
power technologies. The cost of solar PV will fall
to a level lower than conventional power by
2030, and installed capacity will increase. China’s solar PV industry will maintain strong
momentum. PV installed capacity will exceed
400 GW by 2030. The conversion efficiency of
monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon cells
in commercial applications will reach 25% and
21% respectively, and that of thin film cells will
reach around 18%. The average cost per kWh of
PV power will fall by more than 50% to RMB
0.31/kwh by 2030, making it more competitive
than wind power.
Third, outlook for China’s CSP technologies.
Tower technology will mature by 2030 to lead
the global CSP sector into the stage of large-scale
development. China’s CSP industry will see
rapid development, with installed capacity
expected to reach 30,000 MW by 2030. Air
solid-state particle heat absorbers will be
deployed gradually. Ceramic, solid-state concrete
heat storage technologies will be developed, but
molten salt heat storage will still be the mainstream technology for large CSP plants. The
average cost per kWh of tower CSP power will
decrease by more than 40% to RMB 0.42/kWh
by 2030, getting closer to PV power and thus
more competitive.
55
Huang Qili, Zhang Zhengling, Zhang Ke, Li Qionghui
and Huang Bibin, The wind power and solar power parts
of the Report on Strategic and Emerging Industries of
China, 2016.
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
345