3.5 Uncertainty Due to Accidents
and Changes
in Government
Natural disasters and changes in government can
have a significant impact on energy technology
development.
A case in point was the release of radioactive
materials at the Fukushima nuclear power plant
in Japan, one of the world’s largest nuclear
power stations, after it was severely damaged by
an earthquake and tsunami in 2011. This drew
the world’s attention to nuclear power generation, with some countries deciding to phase out
nuclear power in favour of other energy technologies. Such policies directly affect the technology structure of the energy revolution.
A change of government can bring uncertainty to energy technology cooperation within
and between countries. For instance, after taking
office President Trump announced the “America
First” Energy Plan, which promotes the development of domestic conventional energy
resources—including shale gas, oil, natural gas
and coal. He also withdrew the USA from the
Paris Agreement. Such policies not only affect
energy technology development domestically,
they also bring uncertainty to global energy
technology collaboration.
3.6 The Potential of Promotional
Regulation Cannot Be
Ignored
As understanding of people’s thinking and
behaviour
deepens,
governments
and
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) can
play an important role in changing energy consumption patterns and driving business model
innovation. This also impacts the direction in
which energy technology innovation proceeds.
Take Opower, a US-based company, that was
acquired by Oracle in 2016. The company sends a
home energy report to its residential customers,
showing the difference in energy consumption
between their home and those of neighbours. This
comparison reduces home energy consumption by
2 percentage points, a result equivalent to raising
the electricity tariff by 11–20%. The main reason
for this success is that people value the constraint
that social norms have on their behaviour. When
energy saving is considered a social norm, people
tend to follow the norm, once they understand the
context (Fig. 12).
In addition to the effects of social norms,
interventions like information disclosure and
setting proper default options can deliver very
good results.
4 New Trends in Global Energy
Technology
There are two main trends in global energy
technology development.
4.1 Decoupling of Economic Growth
from Energy Consumption
Annual growth in global energy consumption has
been lower than economic growth in recent decades. This is due to improvements in energy
technologies and energy efficiency and the impact
of digitalisation. During 1965–2015, the average
growth rate of global GDP (in 2010 $) was 3.33%,
while that of global primary energy use was
2.54%. Some countries like Denmark and states
like California achieved economic growth without
increasing energy consumption (Fig. 13).
Looking at future trends, energy intensity in
developed economies will continue to decline.
Rapidly growing developing countries like the
BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa) will shift to less energy-intensive
industrial structures, resulting in significant
decreases in energy intensity. Although the
Middle East and Africa will register population
and economic growth, their declining energy
intensity will help reduce their energy consumption intensity (energy use per square foot
per year) (Fig. 14).
As future economic growth will be driven
mainly by productivity increases rather than by
energy investment, the decoupling of economic
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
309
and Changes
in Government
Natural disasters and changes in government can
have a significant impact on energy technology
development.
A case in point was the release of radioactive
materials at the Fukushima nuclear power plant
in Japan, one of the world’s largest nuclear
power stations, after it was severely damaged by
an earthquake and tsunami in 2011. This drew
the world’s attention to nuclear power generation, with some countries deciding to phase out
nuclear power in favour of other energy technologies. Such policies directly affect the technology structure of the energy revolution.
A change of government can bring uncertainty to energy technology cooperation within
and between countries. For instance, after taking
office President Trump announced the “America
First” Energy Plan, which promotes the development of domestic conventional energy
resources—including shale gas, oil, natural gas
and coal. He also withdrew the USA from the
Paris Agreement. Such policies not only affect
energy technology development domestically,
they also bring uncertainty to global energy
technology collaboration.
3.6 The Potential of Promotional
Regulation Cannot Be
Ignored
As understanding of people’s thinking and
behaviour
deepens,
governments
and
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) can
play an important role in changing energy consumption patterns and driving business model
innovation. This also impacts the direction in
which energy technology innovation proceeds.
Take Opower, a US-based company, that was
acquired by Oracle in 2016. The company sends a
home energy report to its residential customers,
showing the difference in energy consumption
between their home and those of neighbours. This
comparison reduces home energy consumption by
2 percentage points, a result equivalent to raising
the electricity tariff by 11–20%. The main reason
for this success is that people value the constraint
that social norms have on their behaviour. When
energy saving is considered a social norm, people
tend to follow the norm, once they understand the
context (Fig. 12).
In addition to the effects of social norms,
interventions like information disclosure and
setting proper default options can deliver very
good results.
4 New Trends in Global Energy
Technology
There are two main trends in global energy
technology development.
4.1 Decoupling of Economic Growth
from Energy Consumption
Annual growth in global energy consumption has
been lower than economic growth in recent decades. This is due to improvements in energy
technologies and energy efficiency and the impact
of digitalisation. During 1965–2015, the average
growth rate of global GDP (in 2010 $) was 3.33%,
while that of global primary energy use was
2.54%. Some countries like Denmark and states
like California achieved economic growth without
increasing energy consumption (Fig. 13).
Looking at future trends, energy intensity in
developed economies will continue to decline.
Rapidly growing developing countries like the
BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa) will shift to less energy-intensive
industrial structures, resulting in significant
decreases in energy intensity. Although the
Middle East and Africa will register population
and economic growth, their declining energy
intensity will help reduce their energy consumption intensity (energy use per square foot
per year) (Fig. 14).
As future economic growth will be driven
mainly by productivity increases rather than by
energy investment, the decoupling of economic
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
309