28
The Chemistry and Technology of Petroleum
and diesel and on concerns about refiners’ ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August
2005 as crude oil prices surged past $65 per barrel.
1.7.3 Future oF oIl
The Hubbert theory assumes that oil reserves will not be replenished (i.e., that abiogenic replenishment is negligible) and predicts that future world oil production must inevitably reach a peak and then
decline as these reserves are exhausted. Controversy surrounds the theory since predictions for the
time of the global peak are dependent on the past production and discovery data used in the calculation.
For the United States, the prediction turned out to be correct and, after the United States peaked
in 1971 and thus lost its excess production capacity, OPEC was able to manipulate oil prices. Since
then oil production in several other countries has also peaked. However, for a variety of reasons, it is
difficult to predict the oil peak in any given region. Based on available production data, proponents
have previously (and incorrectly) predicted the peak for the world to be in years 1989, 1995, or in the
1995–2000 period. Other predictions have chosen 2007 and beyond for the peak of oil production.
1.7.4 ePIlogue
In summary, the petroleum industry is indeed on the verge of a major decision period with the onset
of processing high volumes of heavy crude oil and residua. Several technology breakthroughs have
made this possible, but many technical challenges remain.
But more importantly, several trends that should have been established in the wake of the decreasing
crude prices have never been put into practice. For example, and most important, the failure of politicians to recognize the need for a measure of energy independence through the development of alternate
resources as well as the development of technologies that would assist in maximizing oil recovery.
Some would argue that the periods of oil price decline were the impetus to start development of
better technology and expertise.
REFERENCES
Abraham, H. 1945. Asphalts and Allied Substances. Van Nostrand Publishers, New York.
Anderton, T. 2012. Pre-Columbian oil mining in ancient Pennsylvania. Ancient American 16(97): 12–16.
Armstrong, K. 1997. Jerusalem: One City, Three Faiths. Balantine Books, New York, p. 3.
ASTM D4. 2012. Standard Test Method for Bitumen Content, Vol. 04.04. Annual Book of Standards, American
Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, PA.
ASTM D4175. 2012. Standard Terminology Relating to Petroleum, Petroleum Products, and Lubricants,
Vol. 05.03. Annual Book of Standards, American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, PA.
Bauer, G. (Georgius Agrícola). 1546. De Natura Fossilium, Book IV. Ambrosius Frobenius, Basel, Switzerland.
Bauer, G. (Georgius Agrícola). 1556. De Re Metallica, Book XII. Ambrosius Frobenius, Basel, Switzerland.
Bell, H.S. 1945. American Petroleum Refining. Van Nostrand Publishers, New York.
Bland, W.F. and Davidson, R.L. 1967. Petroleum Processing Handbook. McGraw-Hill, New York.
Boyle, G. (Ed.). 1996. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Brooks, B.T., Dunstan, A.E., Nash. A.W., and Tizard, H. 1938. The Science Petroleum. Oxford University
Press, Oxford, U.K.
Burke, J. 1996. The Pinball Effect, Little. Brown and Company, New York, p. 128 et seq.
Cobb, C. and Goldwhite, H. 1995. Creations of Fire: Chemistry’s Lively History from Alchemy to the Atomic
Age. Plenum Press, New York.
Dahmus, J. 1995. A History of the Middle Ages. Barnes and Noble, New York, pp. 135 and 136; previously
published with the same title by Doubleday Book Co., 1968.
Davies, N. 1996. Europe: A History. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., pp. 245 and 250.
Forbes, R.J. 1958a. A History of Technology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Forbes, R.J. 1958b. Studies in Early Petroleum Chemistry. E. J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.
Forbes, R.J. 1959. More Studies in Early Petroleum Chemistry. E.J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.
Forbes, R.J. 1964. Studies in Ancient Technology. E. J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.
The Chemistry and Technology of Petroleum
and diesel and on concerns about refiners’ ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August
2005 as crude oil prices surged past $65 per barrel.
1.7.3 Future oF oIl
The Hubbert theory assumes that oil reserves will not be replenished (i.e., that abiogenic replenishment is negligible) and predicts that future world oil production must inevitably reach a peak and then
decline as these reserves are exhausted. Controversy surrounds the theory since predictions for the
time of the global peak are dependent on the past production and discovery data used in the calculation.
For the United States, the prediction turned out to be correct and, after the United States peaked
in 1971 and thus lost its excess production capacity, OPEC was able to manipulate oil prices. Since
then oil production in several other countries has also peaked. However, for a variety of reasons, it is
difficult to predict the oil peak in any given region. Based on available production data, proponents
have previously (and incorrectly) predicted the peak for the world to be in years 1989, 1995, or in the
1995–2000 period. Other predictions have chosen 2007 and beyond for the peak of oil production.
1.7.4 ePIlogue
In summary, the petroleum industry is indeed on the verge of a major decision period with the onset
of processing high volumes of heavy crude oil and residua. Several technology breakthroughs have
made this possible, but many technical challenges remain.
But more importantly, several trends that should have been established in the wake of the decreasing
crude prices have never been put into practice. For example, and most important, the failure of politicians to recognize the need for a measure of energy independence through the development of alternate
resources as well as the development of technologies that would assist in maximizing oil recovery.
Some would argue that the periods of oil price decline were the impetus to start development of
better technology and expertise.
REFERENCES
Abraham, H. 1945. Asphalts and Allied Substances. Van Nostrand Publishers, New York.
Anderton, T. 2012. Pre-Columbian oil mining in ancient Pennsylvania. Ancient American 16(97): 12–16.
Armstrong, K. 1997. Jerusalem: One City, Three Faiths. Balantine Books, New York, p. 3.
ASTM D4. 2012. Standard Test Method for Bitumen Content, Vol. 04.04. Annual Book of Standards, American
Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, PA.
ASTM D4175. 2012. Standard Terminology Relating to Petroleum, Petroleum Products, and Lubricants,
Vol. 05.03. Annual Book of Standards, American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, PA.
Bauer, G. (Georgius Agrícola). 1546. De Natura Fossilium, Book IV. Ambrosius Frobenius, Basel, Switzerland.
Bauer, G. (Georgius Agrícola). 1556. De Re Metallica, Book XII. Ambrosius Frobenius, Basel, Switzerland.
Bell, H.S. 1945. American Petroleum Refining. Van Nostrand Publishers, New York.
Bland, W.F. and Davidson, R.L. 1967. Petroleum Processing Handbook. McGraw-Hill, New York.
Boyle, G. (Ed.). 1996. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Brooks, B.T., Dunstan, A.E., Nash. A.W., and Tizard, H. 1938. The Science Petroleum. Oxford University
Press, Oxford, U.K.
Burke, J. 1996. The Pinball Effect, Little. Brown and Company, New York, p. 128 et seq.
Cobb, C. and Goldwhite, H. 1995. Creations of Fire: Chemistry’s Lively History from Alchemy to the Atomic
Age. Plenum Press, New York.
Dahmus, J. 1995. A History of the Middle Ages. Barnes and Noble, New York, pp. 135 and 136; previously
published with the same title by Doubleday Book Co., 1968.
Davies, N. 1996. Europe: A History. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., pp. 245 and 250.
Forbes, R.J. 1958a. A History of Technology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Forbes, R.J. 1958b. Studies in Early Petroleum Chemistry. E. J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.
Forbes, R.J. 1959. More Studies in Early Petroleum Chemistry. E.J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.
Forbes, R.J. 1964. Studies in Ancient Technology. E. J. Brill, Leiden, the Netherlands.