220
PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
the United States Geological Survey released a study showing that
its prediction of reserves growth has been in line with the world's
experience from 1996 to 2003. Given such controversy, uncertainty
remains about this key element of estimating the amount of oil in
the ground. In 2000, the most recent full assessment of the world's
key oil regions by the United States Geological Survey provided a
range of estimates of remaining world conventional oil resources.
The mean of this range was at about 2.3 trillion barrels, comprising
about 890 billion barrels in current reserves and 1.4 trillion barrels
that have the potential to be added to oil reserves in the future.
Further contributing to the uncertainty of the timing of a peak
is the lack of a comprehensive assessment of oil from nonconventional sources. For example, the three key sources of oil estimates,
Oil and Gas Journal, World Oil, and the United States Geological
Survey, do not generally include oil from nonconventional sources.
Yet oil from nonconventional sources is exists in large quantities.
For example, that oil from nonconventional sources, such as the
Alberta tar sands, and similar material in the Venezuelan deposits, as well as oil shale in the United States, accounts for as much
as 7 trillion barrels of oil, which could greatly delay the onset of
a peak in production. However, challenges facing this production
(Chapter 9) indicate that the amount of nonconventional oil that
will eventually be produced is highly uncertain.
Despite this apparent uncertainty, development and production of oil (synthetic crude oil) from the Alberta tar sands and
Venezuelan extra-heavy oil production are under way now and the
information available indicates that these sources will be effective
in the near future (Chapter 5).
8.2 Technological Factors
In region after region, the story is of ageing fields, of the wrong sort
of oil, of nitrogen being pumped into wells to keep up the flow, of
new areas turning out to be dry, and oil is at its peak now. The giant
fields in Alaska, the former Soviet Union, Mexico, Venezuela and
Norway are all past their peak. There is a possibility of some big
finds off the coast of west Africa, but their development is still years
into the future, and they are not on a scale capable of making a difference. The only producers with an oil resource that may be capable
of keeping oil flowing into the world market at a roughly constant
PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
the United States Geological Survey released a study showing that
its prediction of reserves growth has been in line with the world's
experience from 1996 to 2003. Given such controversy, uncertainty
remains about this key element of estimating the amount of oil in
the ground. In 2000, the most recent full assessment of the world's
key oil regions by the United States Geological Survey provided a
range of estimates of remaining world conventional oil resources.
The mean of this range was at about 2.3 trillion barrels, comprising
about 890 billion barrels in current reserves and 1.4 trillion barrels
that have the potential to be added to oil reserves in the future.
Further contributing to the uncertainty of the timing of a peak
is the lack of a comprehensive assessment of oil from nonconventional sources. For example, the three key sources of oil estimates,
Oil and Gas Journal, World Oil, and the United States Geological
Survey, do not generally include oil from nonconventional sources.
Yet oil from nonconventional sources is exists in large quantities.
For example, that oil from nonconventional sources, such as the
Alberta tar sands, and similar material in the Venezuelan deposits, as well as oil shale in the United States, accounts for as much
as 7 trillion barrels of oil, which could greatly delay the onset of
a peak in production. However, challenges facing this production
(Chapter 9) indicate that the amount of nonconventional oil that
will eventually be produced is highly uncertain.
Despite this apparent uncertainty, development and production of oil (synthetic crude oil) from the Alberta tar sands and
Venezuelan extra-heavy oil production are under way now and the
information available indicates that these sources will be effective
in the near future (Chapter 5).
8.2 Technological Factors
In region after region, the story is of ageing fields, of the wrong sort
of oil, of nitrogen being pumped into wells to keep up the flow, of
new areas turning out to be dry, and oil is at its peak now. The giant
fields in Alaska, the former Soviet Union, Mexico, Venezuela and
Norway are all past their peak. There is a possibility of some big
finds off the coast of west Africa, but their development is still years
into the future, and they are not on a scale capable of making a difference. The only producers with an oil resource that may be capable
of keeping oil flowing into the world market at a roughly constant