O I L PRICES
191
which frequently differ in structure, have been developed in order
to predict the evolution of various macroeconomic time series and
commodity prices have been the focus of various studies (Roche
1995; Labys 1999; Morana 2001; Lanza et al, 2005). However, whatever techniques are employed to forecast future spot prices, data
for short-term horizons offer some indications of prices whereas for
longer-time horizons the data are less accurate (Fernández, 2006).
In fact forecasting crude oil prices is an imprecise art. One only
need consider the price fluctuations during 2008 to realize that no
one predicted any such fluctuations and the price forecasting was
inaccurate not only because of the methods employed, but because
of many unknowns that are likely to arise at any time and for any
reason.
6.8 References
Annual Energy Outlook. 2008. Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with
Projections to 2030. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2008). Energy
Information Administration, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
June.
Balke, N.S., Brown, S.P.A., and Yücel, M.K. 1998. Economic Review First
Quarter 1998. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Texas.
BP. 2008. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Www.bp.Com/
statisticalreview.
Fernández, V. 2006. Forecasting Crude Oil and Natural Gas Spot Prices
by Classification Methods. Documentos De Trabajo with Number 229.
Centro De Economía Aplicada, Universidad De Chile, Santiago, Chile.
http://ideas.repec.Org/p/edj/ceauch/229.html
Gonzalez R. 2006. Oil Industry Investment. Petroleum Technology
Quarterly 8(4): 3.
IEA. 2008. Key World Energy Statistics 2008, International Energy Agency,
Paris, France.
ITF. 2008. Interim Report on Crude Oil. Interagency Task Force on
Commodity Market s, Washington DC. July.
Labys, W. 1999. Modeling Mineral and Energy Markets. Kluwer, New York,
USA.
Lanza, A., Manera, M., and Giovannini, M. 2005. Modeling and Forecasting
Co-integrated Relationships among Heavy Oil and Product Prices."
Energy Economics, 27(6):831-θ48.
Laufenberg, D.E. 2007. Higher oil prices are not always shocking.
Report No. 231483 A (1/07). Ameriprise Financial Inc., Minneapolis
Minnesota.
191
which frequently differ in structure, have been developed in order
to predict the evolution of various macroeconomic time series and
commodity prices have been the focus of various studies (Roche
1995; Labys 1999; Morana 2001; Lanza et al, 2005). However, whatever techniques are employed to forecast future spot prices, data
for short-term horizons offer some indications of prices whereas for
longer-time horizons the data are less accurate (Fernández, 2006).
In fact forecasting crude oil prices is an imprecise art. One only
need consider the price fluctuations during 2008 to realize that no
one predicted any such fluctuations and the price forecasting was
inaccurate not only because of the methods employed, but because
of many unknowns that are likely to arise at any time and for any
reason.
6.8 References
Annual Energy Outlook. 2008. Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with
Projections to 2030. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2008). Energy
Information Administration, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
June.
Balke, N.S., Brown, S.P.A., and Yücel, M.K. 1998. Economic Review First
Quarter 1998. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Texas.
BP. 2008. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Www.bp.Com/
statisticalreview.
Fernández, V. 2006. Forecasting Crude Oil and Natural Gas Spot Prices
by Classification Methods. Documentos De Trabajo with Number 229.
Centro De Economía Aplicada, Universidad De Chile, Santiago, Chile.
http://ideas.repec.Org/p/edj/ceauch/229.html
Gonzalez R. 2006. Oil Industry Investment. Petroleum Technology
Quarterly 8(4): 3.
IEA. 2008. Key World Energy Statistics 2008, International Energy Agency,
Paris, France.
ITF. 2008. Interim Report on Crude Oil. Interagency Task Force on
Commodity Market s, Washington DC. July.
Labys, W. 1999. Modeling Mineral and Energy Markets. Kluwer, New York,
USA.
Lanza, A., Manera, M., and Giovannini, M. 2005. Modeling and Forecasting
Co-integrated Relationships among Heavy Oil and Product Prices."
Energy Economics, 27(6):831-θ48.
Laufenberg, D.E. 2007. Higher oil prices are not always shocking.
Report No. 231483 A (1/07). Ameriprise Financial Inc., Minneapolis
Minnesota.