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PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
bell- shaped curve with a peak in production when 50% of the ultimate recoverable resource had been extracted (Oil Fields, 2008).
Hubbert saw that the facts of geology and the realities of physical
pumping from underground meant that oil fields typically yield an
increasing volume of oil, the volume then stops increasing (production hits a peak), then the volume that can be pumped out of the
ground gradually decreases again. Put on a graph, production from
an oil field makes a bell curve, starting low, slowly climbing, peaking, slowly descending, and finishing low. The high point on the
curve is when half of the original reserves that are easily able to be
pumped out of the ground in national or global oilfield resources
are gone.
Knowing the shape of the production curve for oil fields meant
Hubbert could take the figures on the known size of the oil reserves,
how much oil had been pumped out of all the USA oil fields already,
how much that still remained was recoverable, and fit these figures into a single oilfields of the United States production curve,
representing the life and death of the totality of oil fields in USA.
The results showed that oil production in the United States would
increase in volume every year until 1970. It would then be at the
peak of production, and decline thereafter.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted in that oil production in the United
States would peak in 1970, which in fact it did (Hubbert, 1962).
Hubbert also predicted that the US production of natural gas would
peak in about 1980, which it did, although it has since shown signs
of recovery. He also predicted that world oil production would
peak in about 2000. There was a slight downturn in world production in 2000, but production in the first half of 2008 is running above
the rate in 2000.
However, Hubbert's peak is for conventional crude oil and does
not include oil produced for heavy oil fields, nor does it include
any potential effects from liquids produced form non-conventional
sources such as tar sand deposits, coal, oil shale, or liquids from
natural gas.
In the past decade, a number of pseudo-sages have made predictions about the timing of peak global production using several variations of Hubbert's approach. Various forecasts of the year of the
global peak have ranged from one predicted for 1989 (made in 1989)
to many predicted for the first decade of the 21st century to one
as late as 2030 (Campbell and Laherrère, 1998). Their predictions
begin with an a priori assumption about the volume of ultimately
PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
bell- shaped curve with a peak in production when 50% of the ultimate recoverable resource had been extracted (Oil Fields, 2008).
Hubbert saw that the facts of geology and the realities of physical
pumping from underground meant that oil fields typically yield an
increasing volume of oil, the volume then stops increasing (production hits a peak), then the volume that can be pumped out of the
ground gradually decreases again. Put on a graph, production from
an oil field makes a bell curve, starting low, slowly climbing, peaking, slowly descending, and finishing low. The high point on the
curve is when half of the original reserves that are easily able to be
pumped out of the ground in national or global oilfield resources
are gone.
Knowing the shape of the production curve for oil fields meant
Hubbert could take the figures on the known size of the oil reserves,
how much oil had been pumped out of all the USA oil fields already,
how much that still remained was recoverable, and fit these figures into a single oilfields of the United States production curve,
representing the life and death of the totality of oil fields in USA.
The results showed that oil production in the United States would
increase in volume every year until 1970. It would then be at the
peak of production, and decline thereafter.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted in that oil production in the United
States would peak in 1970, which in fact it did (Hubbert, 1962).
Hubbert also predicted that the US production of natural gas would
peak in about 1980, which it did, although it has since shown signs
of recovery. He also predicted that world oil production would
peak in about 2000. There was a slight downturn in world production in 2000, but production in the first half of 2008 is running above
the rate in 2000.
However, Hubbert's peak is for conventional crude oil and does
not include oil produced for heavy oil fields, nor does it include
any potential effects from liquids produced form non-conventional
sources such as tar sand deposits, coal, oil shale, or liquids from
natural gas.
In the past decade, a number of pseudo-sages have made predictions about the timing of peak global production using several variations of Hubbert's approach. Various forecasts of the year of the
global peak have ranged from one predicted for 1989 (made in 1989)
to many predicted for the first decade of the 21st century to one
as late as 2030 (Campbell and Laherrère, 1998). Their predictions
begin with an a priori assumption about the volume of ultimately