THE PETROLEUM CULTURE
137
Such a culture should recognize: (1) energy is neither created
nor destroyed but can be converted among forms, and (2) energy
comes from the physical environment and ultimately returns there.
In addition, energy demand in such a culture is derived from preferences for petroleum products that depend on properties of conversion technologies, as well as cost of the technologies. Petroleum
resources are depletable or renewable and storable or non-storable.
Crude oil is a depletable resource and market forces may guide a
transition back to renewable resources.
As of year-end 2008, global crude oil supply and demand was in
tight balance, resulting in the rapid increases in crude oil prices
and price volatility between 2007 and 2008. As the benchmark West
Texas Intermediate crude oil exceeded $145/bbl in mid-2008, the
world began to see a moderation of demand growth caused by high
prices. Crude oil demand actually decreased in the United States,
Western Europe, and Southeast Asia, while demand growth moderated in the fast economic growth countries such as Brazil, Russia,
India and China. Global crude oil demand growth of 2% per year,
which had characterized 2000-2006, was cut nearly in half a couple years larer by the cumulative impacts of higher petroleum
prices, lower global GDP, and mandated production and use of
biofuels. Claims that high oil prices were being driven by futures
market speculation (dry barrel participants), profiteering by oil
companies and the withholding of supply by OPEC are conspicuously absent from this government assessment. During 2007
to 2008, geopolitical concerns over some major oil supplier output
(Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela) contributed to oil price volatility.
Over the longer term, primary global energy demand is expected
to increase by 50-60% by the year 2030, driven primarily by population growth and the desire for better living standards. Conventional
oil and gas alone are unlikely to satisfy the demand growth in its
seminal 2007 report, and called on the development of supplemental energy sources such as clean coal, biofuels, alternative renewal
energy, nuclear, and non-conventional fossil fuels (Chapter 9).
Thus, in early in 2009, the state of oil-supply predictions covers a
wide range of opinions and it is important to assess the main alternatives (Speight, 2007, 2008).
However, an even greater problem may be that an increasing
number of politicians and company decision-makers sense that
technology will resolve this issue as it has done before and will do
so again. This line of thinking may be courting disaster.
137
Such a culture should recognize: (1) energy is neither created
nor destroyed but can be converted among forms, and (2) energy
comes from the physical environment and ultimately returns there.
In addition, energy demand in such a culture is derived from preferences for petroleum products that depend on properties of conversion technologies, as well as cost of the technologies. Petroleum
resources are depletable or renewable and storable or non-storable.
Crude oil is a depletable resource and market forces may guide a
transition back to renewable resources.
As of year-end 2008, global crude oil supply and demand was in
tight balance, resulting in the rapid increases in crude oil prices
and price volatility between 2007 and 2008. As the benchmark West
Texas Intermediate crude oil exceeded $145/bbl in mid-2008, the
world began to see a moderation of demand growth caused by high
prices. Crude oil demand actually decreased in the United States,
Western Europe, and Southeast Asia, while demand growth moderated in the fast economic growth countries such as Brazil, Russia,
India and China. Global crude oil demand growth of 2% per year,
which had characterized 2000-2006, was cut nearly in half a couple years larer by the cumulative impacts of higher petroleum
prices, lower global GDP, and mandated production and use of
biofuels. Claims that high oil prices were being driven by futures
market speculation (dry barrel participants), profiteering by oil
companies and the withholding of supply by OPEC are conspicuously absent from this government assessment. During 2007
to 2008, geopolitical concerns over some major oil supplier output
(Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela) contributed to oil price volatility.
Over the longer term, primary global energy demand is expected
to increase by 50-60% by the year 2030, driven primarily by population growth and the desire for better living standards. Conventional
oil and gas alone are unlikely to satisfy the demand growth in its
seminal 2007 report, and called on the development of supplemental energy sources such as clean coal, biofuels, alternative renewal
energy, nuclear, and non-conventional fossil fuels (Chapter 9).
Thus, in early in 2009, the state of oil-supply predictions covers a
wide range of opinions and it is important to assess the main alternatives (Speight, 2007, 2008).
However, an even greater problem may be that an increasing
number of politicians and company decision-makers sense that
technology will resolve this issue as it has done before and will do
so again. This line of thinking may be courting disaster.