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Contents
6 Estimation Update and Feedback Procedures
140
Procedure for Estimating Mature Plays
143
Step 1: Formulating a Play Defi nition and Its
Geographic Boundary
143
Step 2: Compiling Play Data
143
Step 3: Validating Mixed Populations or Lognormal
Assumptions
144
Step 4: Estimating Pool-Size Distribution
145
Step 5: Determining an Appropriate Probability
Distribution
145
Step 6: Estimating Pool-Size-by-Rank
145
Step 7: Estimating Expected and Probable Play Potential
145
Step 8: Computing Play Resource Distribution
146
Procedure for Estimating Conceptual Plays
146
Conceptual Plays from a Mature Basin
146
Conceptual Plays from a Frontier Basin
146
Step 1: Formulating Play Defi nitions
146
Step 2: Estimating Pool-Size Distribution
147
Step 3: Estimating Number-of-Pools Distribution
147
Step 4: Estimating Individual Pool-Size Distribution
148
Step 5: Estimating Play Resource Distribution
148
Step 6: Estimating Other Reservoir Parameters
149
Update Procedure
149
Feedback Procedure
149
Can We Predict the Current Situation?
149
Has the Largest Pool Been Discovered?
150
Pool Size Conditional on Play Resource
151
7 Other Assessment Methods—An Overview
152
Geological Approach
153
Volumetric Yield by Analogous Basin Method
153
Basin Classifi cation Method
154
Geochemical Approaches
154
Petroleum System or Geochemical Mass Balance Method
154
Burial and Thermal History Modeling
158
Statistical Approaches
161
Finite Population Methods
161
The Arps and Roberts Method
161
Bickel, Nair, and Wang’s Method
163